Prospective study on risk-targeted seismic hazard maps for Northeastern Brazil: case study in Zone 1 of ABNT NBR 15421:2006

Pereira, Eduardo Marques Vieira; Cavalcante, Gustavo Henrique Ferreira; Andrade, Rodrigo Bezerra; Vieira Júnior, Luiz Carlos Marcos; Siqueira, Gustavo Henrique

doi:10.1590/S1983-41952022000500005

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Revista IBRACON de Estruturas e Materiais

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE • Rev. IBRACON Estrut. Mater. 15 (5) • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/S1983-41952022000500005 copy

Prospective study on risk-targeted seismic hazard maps for Northeastern Brazil: case study in Zone 1 of ABNT NBR 15421:2006

Estudo prospectivo de mapas de ameaça sísmica com risco-alvo para o Nordeste do Brasil: estudo de caso na Zona 1 da ABNT NBR 15421:2006

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

Given the tendency of risk-targeted seismic design maps worldwide, it is important that Brazil is inserted in this context as well. This study aims to apply the risk-targeting methodology for Northeastern Brazil, more specifically the region within Zone 1 of the Brazilian earthquake-resistant design code ABNT NBR 15421:2006. Different inputs for the methodology are explored and combined with existing hazard studies for the region, and their impact in the final map are evaluated. The results outline that, depending on the safety level required, the provisioned design accelerations could be lower than the commonly used in codes, but may as well be much higher. The results are also compared with the current code provisions and their differences are discussed, providing insights on the code provisioned level of safety.

Keywords:
seismic hazard; failure probability; seismic design

IM	$p_{f,T}$	P[C\| $I M_{D}$ ]	Min. (g)	Max. (g)
PGA	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	0.0099	0.2457
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.0072	0.1690
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	0.0243	0.7121
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	0.0170	0.4890
Sa(T = 0.2s)	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	0.0216	0.3807
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.0153	0.2614
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	0.0507	1.0763
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	0.0351	0.7382
Sa(T = 1s)	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	0.0088	0.0552
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.0063	0.0379
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	0.0216	0.1528
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	0.0150	0.1050

IM	$p_{f,T}$	P[C\|IM_D]	$C_{R, 475}$			$C_{R, 2475}$
IM	$p_{f,T}$	P[C\|IM_D]	Min.	Max.	Mean	Min.	Max.	Mean
PGA	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	0.26	0.71	0.42	0.14	0.210	0.17
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.19	0.49	0.29	0.10	0.14	0.12
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	0.63	2.47	1.23	0.33	0.73	0.50
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	0.44	1.70	0.85	0.23	0.50	0.34
Sa(T = 0.2s)	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	0.60	1.08	0.75	0.29	0.33	0.31
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.42	0.74	0.52	0.20	0.23	0.21
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	1.38	3.59	2.09	0.72	1.08	0.85
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	0.96	2.46	1.43	0.50	0.75	0.59
Sa(T = 1s)	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	0.14	0.30	0.19	0.05	0.15	0.08
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.10	0.21	0.14	0.03	0.11	0.06
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	0.38	0.77	0.53	0.13	0.40	0.23
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	0.26	0.54	0.37	0.09	0.28	0.16

IM	$p_{f, T}$	P[C\|IM_D]	Fortaleza (CE)	Natal (RN)	João Pessoa (PB)
PGA	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	1.60	1.40	0.32
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	1.10	0.96	0.23
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	4.99	4.68	0.79
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	3.41	3.21	0.55
Sa(T = 0.2s)	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	1.04	0.86	0.29
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.72	0.59	0.20
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	3.35	2.56	0.74
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	2.30	1.76	0.51
Sa(T = 1s)	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-3}$	0.46	0.40	0.22
	${2 × 10}^{-4}$	$10^{-4}$	0.31	0.29	0.16
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-3}$	1.30	1.20	0.59
	$10^{-5}$	$10^{-4}$	0.89	0.83	0.41

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[1] Corresponding author: Eduardo Marques Vieira Pereira. E-mail: eduardo.marquesvp@gmail.com