Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures

Zimmermann, Ivan; Sanchez, Mauro; Brant, Jonas; Alves, Domingos

Ivan Zimmermann Correspondence: Ivan Zimmermann - Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Brasília, DF, Brazil. Postcode: 70910-900 E-mail: ivanzricardo@gmail.com

Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Brasília, DF, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7757-7519

Mauro Sanchez

Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Brasília, DF, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0472-1804

Jonas Brant

Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Brasília, DF, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2248-9102

Domingos Alves

Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0800-5872

Correspondence: Ivan Zimmermann - Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Brasília, DF, Brazil. Postcode: 70910-900 E-mail: ivanzricardo@gmail.com

Associated Editor: Luciana Guerra Gallo - orcid.org/0000-0001-8344-9951

Authors' contributions

Zimmermann I, Sanchez M and Alves D discussed and built the initial design of the study. Zimmermann I, Sanchez M and Brant J worked on data acquisition and the concept of the model. Zimmermann I implemented the model, conducted the simulations and summarized the main results. All the authors contributed equally to discussion and critical assessment of the results and approved the final version of the manuscript. They are responsible for all aspects thereof, including the guarantee of its accuracy and integrity.

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Figure 1
Representation of the structure of the compartmental dynamic model used

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Figure 2
Evolution of percentage social isolation in relation to the implementation date of COVID-19 combat measures in the Federal District, Brazil

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Figure 3
Projections of the demand for ICU beds due to COVID-19 and the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) in Scenario (A) COVID-19 spread profile with no adherence to social distancing measures, Scenario (B) COVID-19 spread profile maintaining adherence to social distancing and Scenario (C) COVID-19 spread profile based on the observed dynamics of a falling level of social distancing, in the Federal District, Brazil

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Faixa etária (anos) Habitantes Frequência (%) Taxa de infecção (por 10 mil hab.) Taxa de hospitalização de infectados (%) Letalidade de infectados (%) 0-9 419.157 13,00 0,36 0,00 0,00 10-19 450.663 13,98 13,73 0,04 0,01 20-29 594.106 18,43 14,92 1,04 0,03 30-39 570.790 17,71 14,24 3,43 0,08 40-49 483.968 15,02 13,99 4,25 0,16 50-59 336.382 10,44 15,98 8,16 0,60 60-69 207.838 6,45 15,33 11,80 1,93 70-79 110.260 3,42 15,14 16,60 4,28 ≥80 49.884 1,55 12,87 18,40 7,80 Total 3.223.048 100,00 13,02 4,57 0,58 Fontes: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) 10 e Verity et al. 28

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Data Casos acumulados Internações em UTI a Óbitos acumulados Percentual de isolamento 1/3/2020 1 – – 0,4090 2/3/2020 1 – – 0,2740 3/3/2020 1 – – 0,2810 4/3/2020 1 – – 0,2930 5/3/2020 1 – – 0,2960 6/3/2020 1 – – 0,2900 7/3/2020 1 – – 0,3180 8/3/2020 1 – – 0,3980 9/3/2020 1 – – 0,2891 10/3/2020 1 – – 0,2880 11/3/2020 2 – – 0,2770 12/3/2020 2 – – 0,3220 13/3/2020 2 – – 0,3190 14/3/2020 6 – – 0,3650 15/3/2020 8 – – 0,4260 16/3/2020 13 – – 0,3430 17/3/2020 22 – – 0,3430 18/3/2020 26 – – 0,3670 19/3/2020 42 – – 0,3990 20/3/2020 87 – – 0,4430 21/3/2020 100 – – 0,5670 22/3/2020 117 1 – 0,6560 23/3/2020 133 1 1 0,5590 24/3/2020 177 1 1 0,6110 25/3/2020 182 6 1 0,5710 26/3/2020 201 6 1 0,5610 27/3/2020 241 8 1 0,5340 28/3/2020 260 13 1 0,5700 29/3/2020 298 19 2 0,5990 30/3/2020 312 20 2 0,5761 31/3/2020 333 30 3 0,5010 1/4/2020 370 30 4 0,4730 2/4/2020 400 41 6 0,4980 3/4/2020 419 40 9 0,4870 4/4/2020 456 38 10 0,5100 5/4/2020 468 41 12 0,5770 6/4/2020 485 37 12 0,4890 7/4/2020 503 40 12 0,4720 8/4/2020 509 42 13 0,4640 9/4/2020 527 35 14 0,4470 10/4/2020 556 33 14 0,5480 11/4/2020 592 32 14 0,4760 12/4/2020 618 33 16 0,5370 13/4/2020 641 30 17 0,4690 14/4/2020 651 28 19 0,4680 15/4/2020 688 30 22 0,4750 16/4/2020 727 29 22 0,4570 17/4/2020 756 25 24 0,4350 18/4/2020 796 26 24 0,4780 19/4/2020 860 28 24 0,5420 20/4/2020 875 28 24 0,4630 21/4/2020 913 29 24 0,5360 22/4/2020 959 30 25 0,4500 23/4/2020 968 30 26 0,4580 24/4/2020 1.012 32 26 0,4330 25/4/2020 1.020 34 27 0,4610 26/4/2020 1.125 34 27 0,5280 27/4/2020 1.189 35 28 0,4450 28/4/2020 1.230 36 28 0,4410 29/4/2020 1.313 38 28 0,4300 30/4/2020 1.423 38 30 0,4210 1/5/2020 1.546 43 31 0,4930 2/5/2020 1.605 45 32 0,4440 3/5/2020 1.720 49 33 0,4960 4/5/2020 1.793 59 33 0,4370 5/5/2020 1.837 56 34 0,4240 6/5/2020 2.046 60 35 0,4220 7/5/2020 2.258 60 35 0,4290 8/5/2020 2.442 64 37 0,4010 9/5/2020 2.576 66 39 0,4250 10/5/2020 2.682 72 42 0,4540 11/5/2020 2.799 78 44 0,4290 12/5/2020 2.979 87 46 0,4280 13/5/2020 3.192 92 48 0,4210 14/5/2020 3.416 94 51 0,4190 15/5/2020 3.786 86 55 0,4120 16/5/2020 4.140 84 56 0,4472 17/5/2020 4.368 116 59 0,5176 18/5/2020 4.618 121 66 0,4248 19/5/2020 4.853 125 72 0,4205 20/5/2020 5.271 142 78 0,4120 21/5/2020 5.542 138 84 0,4121 22/5/2020 5.948 – 90 0,3986 23/5/2020 6.248 – 95 0,4330 24/5/2020 6.638 – 104 0,5137 25/5/2020 6.930 – 114 0,4214 26/5/2020 7.210 – 124 0,4111 27/5/2020 7.761 – 133 0,4054 28/5/2020 8.300 – 142 0,4084 29/5/2020 8.722 – 154 0,3922 30/5/2020 9.474 – 162 0,4228 31/5/2020 9.780 – 170 0,4950 1/6/2020 10.510 – 171 0,4085 2/6/2020 11.256 – 177 0,4040 3/6/2020 11.398 – 181 0,3948 4/6/2020 12.923 – 196 0,3875 5/6/2020 14.208 – 202 0,3884 6/6/2020 15.850 – 208 0,3983 7/6/2020 16.623 – 214 0,4769 8/6/2020 16.948 – 226 0,3927 9/6/2020 18.090 – 236 0,3828 10/6/2020 19.433 – 256 0,3936 11/6/2020 20.507 – 274 0,4451 12/6/2020 21.396 – 282 0,3727 13/6/2020 21.959 – 293 0,4054 14/6/2020 22.871 – 304 0,4830 15/6/2020 23.684 – 319 0,3953 16/6/2020 25.379 – 348 0,4051 17/6/2020 27.140 – 365 0,3875 18/6/2020 28.521 – 379 0,3966 19/6/2020 30.902 – 396 0,3562 20/6/2020 32.238 – 405 0,4042 21/6/2020 33.227 – 423 0,4839 22/6/2020 34.148 – 449 0,4039 23/6/2020 35.368 – 475 0,3969 24/6/2020 37.254 – 495 0,3932 25/6/2020 38.871 – 509 0,3940 26/6/2020 41.326 – 532 0,3811 27/6/2020 42.766 – 537 0,4190 28/6/2020 44.905 – 548 0,4926 29/6/2020 47.071 – 559 0,4216 30/6/2020 49.218 – 587 0,4100 1/7/2020 50.676 – 620 0,4020 2/7/2020 52.281 – 631 0,4040 3/7/2020 53.996 – 643 0,3850 4/7/2020 55.760 – 671 0,4090 5/7/2020 57.854 – 699 0,4820 6/7/2020 60.383 – 726 0,4130 7/7/2020 62.694 – 767 0,3950 8/7/2020 64.314 – 801 0,3900 9/7/2020 65.677 – 823 0,4000 10/7/2020 67.297 – 856 0,3920 11/7/2020 68.406 – 871 0,4180 12/7/2020 70.712 – 902 0,4870 13/7/2020 72.284 – 930 0,4130 14/7/2020 73.654 – 960 0,4130 15/7/2020 75.379 – 1.001 0,4020 16/7/2020 77.621 – 1.037 0,4030 17/7/2020 79.400 – 1.060 0,3570 18/7/2020 81.163 – 1.075 0,3940 19/7/2020 82.412 – 1.085 0,4850 20/7/2020 84.287 – 1.112 0,4080 21/7/2020 86.076 – 1.158 0,4070 22/7/2020 87.801 – 1.176 0,3960 23/7/2020 90.023 – 1.218 0,3960 24/7/2020 92.414 – 1.244 0,3880 25/7/2020 94.187 – 1.275 0,4110 26/7/2020 96.332 – 1.308 0,4810 27/7/2020 98.480 – 1.339 0,4070 28/7/2020 100.726 – 1.391 0,4000 29/7/2020 102.342 – 1.419 0,3970 30/7/2020 104.442 – 1.444 0,3970 31/7/2020 106.292 – 1.469 0,3860 a)
Fontes: Boletins Epidemiológicos locais e base pública da Inloco. 11

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Table 1
List of values, parametric uncertainties, distributions and sources of the main parameters of the model of the spread of COVID-19 in the Federal District, Brazil

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Age range (years) Inhabitants Frequency (%) Infection rate (per 10,000 inhab.) Hospitalization rate of infected people (%) Lethality of infected people (%) 0-9 419,57 13.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 10-19 450,663 13.98 13.73 0.04 0.01 20-29 594,106 18.43 14.92 1.04 0.03 30-39 570,790 17.71 14.24 3.43 0.08 40-49 483,968 15.02 13.99 4.25 0.16 50-59 336,382 10.44 15.98 8.16 0.60 60-69 207,838 6.45 15.33 11.80 1.93 70-79 110,260 3.42 15.14 16.60 4.28 ≥80 49,884 1.55 12.87 18.40 7.80 Total 3,223,048 100.00 13.02 4.57 0.58 Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) 10 and Verity et al. 28

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Date Cumulative cases ICU a hospitalizations Cumulative deaths Percentage isolation 1/3/2020 1 – – 0.4090 2/3/2020 1 – – 0.2740 3/3/2020 1 – – 0.2810 4/3/2020 1 – – 0.2930 5/3/2020 1 – – 0.2960 6/3/2020 1 – – 0.2900 7/3/2020 1 – – 0.3180 8/3/2020 1 – – 0.3980 9/3/2020 1 – – 0.2891 10/3/2020 1 – – 0.2880 11/3/2020 2 – – 0.2770 12/3/2020 2 – – 0.3220 13/3/2020 2 – – 0.3190 14/3/2020 6 – – 0.3650 15/3/2020 8 – – 0.4260 16/3/2020 13 – – 0.3430 17/3/2020 22 – – 0.3430 18/3/2020 26 – – 0.3670 19/3/2020 42 – – 0.3990 20/3/2020 87 – – 0.4430 21/3/2020 100 – – 0.5670 22/3/2020 117 1 – 0.6560 23/3/2020 133 1 1 0.5590 24/3/2020 177 1 1 0.6110 25/3/2020 182 6 1 0.5710 26/3/2020 201 6 1 0.5610 27/3/2020 241 8 1 0.5340 28/3/2020 260 13 1 0.5700 29/3/2020 298 19 2 0.5990 30/3/2020 312 20 2 0.5761 31/3/2020 333 30 3 0.5010 1/4/2020 370 30 4 0.4730 2/4/2020 400 41 6 0.4980 3/4/2020 419 40 9 0.4870 4/4/2020 456 38 10 0.5100 5/4/2020 468 41 12 0.5770 6/4/2020 485 37 12 0.4890 7/4/2020 503 40 12 0.4720 8/4/2020 509 42 13 0.4640 9/4/2020 527 35 14 0.4470 10/4/2020 556 33 14 0.5480 11/4/2020 592 32 14 0.4760 12/4/2020 618 33 16 0.5370 13/4/2020 641 30 17 0.4690 14/4/2020 651 28 19 0.4680 15/4/2020 688 30 22 0.4750 16/4/2020 727 29 22 0.4570 17/4/2020 756 25 24 0.4350 18/4/2020 796 26 24 0.4780 19/4/2020 860 28 24 0.5420 20/4/2020 875 28 24 0.4630 21/4/2020 913 29 24 0.5360 22/4/2020 959 30 25 0.4500 23/4/2020 968 30 26 0.4580 24/4/2020 1,012 32 26 0.4330 25/4/2020 1,020 34 27 0.4610 26/4/2020 1,125 34 27 0.5280 27/4/2020 1,189 35 28 0.4450 28/4/2020 1,230 36 28 0.4410 29/4/2020 1,313 38 28 0.4300 30/4/2020 1,423 38 30 0.4210 1/5/2020 1,546 43 31 0.4930 2/5/2020 1,605 45 32 0.4440 3/5/2020 1,720 49 33 0.4960 4/5/2020 1,793 59 33 0.4370 5/5/2020 1,837 56 34 0.4240 6/5/2020 2,046 60 35 0.4220 7/5/2020 2,258 60 35 0.4290 8/5/2020 2,442 64 37 0.4010 9/5/2020 2,576 66 39 0.4250 10/5/2020 2,682 72 42 0.4540 11/5/2020 2,799 78 44 0.4290 12/5/2020 2,979 87 46 0.4280 13/5/2020 3,192 92 48 0.4210 14/5/2020 3,416 94 51 0.4190 15/5/2020 3,786 86 55 0.4120 16/5/2020 4,140 84 56 0.4472 17/5/2020 4,368 116 59 0.5176 18/5/2020 4,618 121 66 0.4248 19/5/2020 4,853 125 72 0.4205 20/5/2020 5,271 142 78 0.4120 21/5/2020 5,542 138 84 0.4121 22/5/2020 5,948 – 90 0.3986 23/5/2020 6,248 – 95 0.4330 24/5/2020 6,638 – 104 0.5137 25/5/2020 6,930 – 114 0.4214 26/5/2020 7,210 – 124 0.4111 27/5/2020 7,761 – 133 0.4054 28/5/2020 8,300 – 142 0.4084 29/5/2020 8,722 – 154 0.3922 30/5/2020 9,474 – 162 0.4228 31/5/2020 9,780 – 170 0.4950 1/6/2020 10,510 – 171 0.4085 2/6/2020 11,256 – 177 0.4040 3/6/2020 11,398 – 181 0.3948 4/6/2020 12,923 – 196 0.3875 5/6/2020 14,208 – 202 0.3884 6/6/2020 15,850 – 208 0.3983 7/6/2020 16,623 – 214 0.4769 8/6/2020 16,948 – 226 0.3927 9/6/2020 18,090 – 236 0.3828 10/6/2020 19,433 – 256 0.3936 11/6/2020 20,507 – 274 0.4451 12/6/2020 21,396 – 282 0.3727 13/6/2020 21,959 – 293 0.4054 14/6/2020 22,871 – 304 0.4830 15/6/2020 23,684 – 319 0.3953 16/6/2020 25,379 – 348 0.4051 17/6/2020 27,140 – 365 0.3875 18/6/2020 28,521 – 379 0.3966 19/6/2020 30,902 – 396 0.3562 20/6/2020 32,238 – 405 0.4042 21/6/2020 33,227 – 423 0.4839 22/6/2020 34,148 – 449 0.4039 23/6/2020 35,368 – 475 0.3969 24/6/2020 37,254 – 495 0.3932 25/6/2020 38,871 – 509 0.3940 26/6/2020 41,326 – 532 0.3811 27/6/2020 42,766 – 537 0.4190 28/6/2020 44,905 – 548 0.4926 29/6/2020 47,071 – 559 0.4216 30/6/2020 49,218 – 587 0.4100 1/7/2020 50,676 – 620 0.4020 2/7/2020 52,281 – 631 0.4040 3/7/2020 53,996 – 643 0.3850 4/7/2020 55,760 – 671 0.4090 5/7/2020 57,854 – 699 0.4820 6/7/2020 60,383 – 726 0.4130 7/7/2020 62,694 – 767 0.3950 8/7/2020 64,314 – 801 0.3900 9/7/2020 65,677 – 823 0.4000 10/7/2020 67,297 – 856 0.3920 11/7/2020 68,406 – 871 0.4180 12/7/2020 70,712 – 902 0.4870 13/7/2020 72,284 – 930 0.4130 14/7/2020 73,654 – 960 0.4130 15/7/2020 75,379 – 1,001 0.4020 16/7/2020 77,621 – 1,037 0.4030 17/7/2020 79,400 – 1,060 0.3570 18/7/2020 81,163 – 1,075 0.3940 19/7/2020 82,412 – 1,085 0.4850 20/7/2020 84,287 – 1,112 0.4080 21/7/2020 86,076 – 1,158 0.4070 22/7/2020 87,801 – 1,176 0.3960 23/7/2020 90,023 – 1,218 0.3960 24/7/2020 92,414 – 1,244 0.3880 25/7/2020 94,187 – 1,275 0.4110 26/7/2020 96,332 – 1,308 0.4810 27/7/2020 98,480 – 1,339 0.4070 28/7/2020 100,726 – 1,391 0.4000 29/7/2020 102,342 – 1,419 0.3970 30/7/2020 104,442 – 1,444 0.3970 31/7/2020 106,292 – 1,469 0.3860 a)
Sources: local Epidemiological Bulletins and the Inloco public database. 11

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Parameter	Point estimation	Lower limit	Upper limit	Probability function	Description	Source
Incubation (days)	5.10	4.50	5.80	Lognormal	Incubation time	Sanches et al. ²⁶26 25. Sanche S, Lin YT, Xu C, Romero-Severson E, Hengartner N, Ke R. The novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is highly contagious and more infectious than initially estimated. medRxiv Prepr [Internet]. 2020 Feb [cited 2020 Sep 25]. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021...
Duration - mild (days)	3.65	3.21	4.09	Gama	Duration of condition until isolation or hospitalization	Linton et al. ²⁷27 26. Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Akhmetzhanov AR, Jung S, et al. Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: a statistical analysis of publicly available case data. J Clin Med [Internet]. 2020 Feb [cited 2020 Sep 25];9(2):538. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.3390%2Fjcm9020538 https://dx.doi.org/10.3390%2Fjcm9020538...
Severe clinical picture (%)	4.57	2.72	9.32	Beta	Proportion of infected people who will have severe or critical clinical picture (hospitalization)	Verity et al. ²⁸28 27. Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis [Internet]. 2020 Mar [cited 2020 Sep 25];20(6):669-77. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30...
Length of hospitalization (days)	8.00	6.00	10.00	Lognormal	Average length of hospitalization in a ward	Ferguson et al. ²⁹29 28. Neil M Ferguson, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Imai N, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College London [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Sep 25]. Available from: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-in...
ICU ^a a) ICU: intensive therapy unit. hospitalization (%)	46.30	44.31	48.06	Beta	Percentage of severe patients needing intensive care	Epidemiological Bulletins ¹⁹19 18. Governo do Distrito Federal. Secretaria de Saúde. Boletins Informativos DIVEP/CIEVES (COE). Boletins informativos sobre coronavirus (COVID-19). Brasília: GDF; 2020. Disponível em: http://www.saude.df.gov.br/boletinsinformativos-divep-cieves/ http://www.saude.df.gov.br/boletinsinfor...
Time in ICU ^a a) ICU: intensive therapy unit. (days)	9.00	6.00	13.00	Lognormal	Average length of hospitalization in ICU ^a a) ICU: intensive therapy unit.	Grasselli et al. ³⁰30 29. Grasselli G, Zangrillo A, Zanella A, Antonelli M, Cabrini L, Castelli A, et al. Baseline characteristics and outcomes of 1591 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy. JAMA [Internet]. 2020 Apr [cited 2020 Sep 25];323(16):1574-81. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1001%2Fjama.2020.5394 https://dx.doi.org/10.1001%2Fjama.2020.5...
Lethality (%)	0.576	0.315	1.140	Beta	Lethality of infected people adjusted for the region	Verity et al. ²⁸28 27. Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis [Internet]. 2020 Mar [cited 2020 Sep 25];20(6):669-77. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30...
Time until death (days)	17.80	16.02	19.58	Lognormal	Average time from symptom onset to death	Verity et al. ²⁸28 27. Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis [Internet]. 2020 Mar [cited 2020 Sep 25];20(6):669-77. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30...
ICU ^a a) ICU: intensive therapy unit. mortality (%)	27.23	12.85	47.81	Not applicable	Probability of death in ICU ^a a) ICU: intensive therapy unit.	Calibrated by lethality

Age range (years)	Inhabitants	Frequency (%)	Infection rate (per 10,000 inhab.)	Hospitalization rate of infected people (%)	Lethality of infected people (%)
0-9	419,57	13.00	0.36	0.00	0.00
10-19	450,663	13.98	13.73	0.04	0.01
20-29	594,106	18.43	14.92	1.04	0.03
30-39	570,790	17.71	14.24	3.43	0.08
40-49	483,968	15.02	13.99	4.25	0.16
50-59	336,382	10.44	15.98	8.16	0.60
60-69	207,838	6.45	15.33	11.80	1.93
70-79	110,260	3.42	15.14	16.60	4.28
≥80	49,884	1.55	12.87	18.40	7.80
Total	3,223,048	100.00	13.02	4.57	0.58

Date	Cumulative cases	ICU ^a a) ICU: intensive care unit - data available as at 21/5/2020. hospitalizations	Cumulative deaths	Percentage isolation
1/3/2020	1	–	–	0.4090
2/3/2020	1	–	–	0.2740
3/3/2020	1	–	–	0.2810
4/3/2020	1	–	–	0.2930
5/3/2020	1	–	–	0.2960
6/3/2020	1	–	–	0.2900
7/3/2020	1	–	–	0.3180
8/3/2020	1	–	–	0.3980
9/3/2020	1	–	–	0.2891
10/3/2020	1	–	–	0.2880
11/3/2020	2	–	–	0.2770
12/3/2020	2	–	–	0.3220
13/3/2020	2	–	–	0.3190
14/3/2020	6	–	–	0.3650
15/3/2020	8	–	–	0.4260
16/3/2020	13	–	–	0.3430
17/3/2020	22	–	–	0.3430
18/3/2020	26	–	–	0.3670
19/3/2020	42	–	–	0.3990
20/3/2020	87	–	–	0.4430
21/3/2020	100	–	–	0.5670
22/3/2020	117	1	–	0.6560
23/3/2020	133	1	1	0.5590
24/3/2020	177	1	1	0.6110
25/3/2020	182	6	1	0.5710
26/3/2020	201	6	1	0.5610
27/3/2020	241	8	1	0.5340
28/3/2020	260	13	1	0.5700
29/3/2020	298	19	2	0.5990
30/3/2020	312	20	2	0.5761
31/3/2020	333	30	3	0.5010
1/4/2020	370	30	4	0.4730
2/4/2020	400	41	6	0.4980
3/4/2020	419	40	9	0.4870
4/4/2020	456	38	10	0.5100
5/4/2020	468	41	12	0.5770
6/4/2020	485	37	12	0.4890
7/4/2020	503	40	12	0.4720
8/4/2020	509	42	13	0.4640
9/4/2020	527	35	14	0.4470
10/4/2020	556	33	14	0.5480
11/4/2020	592	32	14	0.4760
12/4/2020	618	33	16	0.5370
13/4/2020	641	30	17	0.4690
14/4/2020	651	28	19	0.4680
15/4/2020	688	30	22	0.4750
16/4/2020	727	29	22	0.4570
17/4/2020	756	25	24	0.4350
18/4/2020	796	26	24	0.4780
19/4/2020	860	28	24	0.5420
20/4/2020	875	28	24	0.4630
21/4/2020	913	29	24	0.5360
22/4/2020	959	30	25	0.4500
23/4/2020	968	30	26	0.4580
24/4/2020	1,012	32	26	0.4330
25/4/2020	1,020	34	27	0.4610
26/4/2020	1,125	34	27	0.5280
27/4/2020	1,189	35	28	0.4450
28/4/2020	1,230	36	28	0.4410
29/4/2020	1,313	38	28	0.4300
30/4/2020	1,423	38	30	0.4210
1/5/2020	1,546	43	31	0.4930
2/5/2020	1,605	45	32	0.4440
3/5/2020	1,720	49	33	0.4960
4/5/2020	1,793	59	33	0.4370
5/5/2020	1,837	56	34	0.4240
6/5/2020	2,046	60	35	0.4220
7/5/2020	2,258	60	35	0.4290
8/5/2020	2,442	64	37	0.4010
9/5/2020	2,576	66	39	0.4250
10/5/2020	2,682	72	42	0.4540
11/5/2020	2,799	78	44	0.4290
12/5/2020	2,979	87	46	0.4280
13/5/2020	3,192	92	48	0.4210
14/5/2020	3,416	94	51	0.4190
15/5/2020	3,786	86	55	0.4120
16/5/2020	4,140	84	56	0.4472
17/5/2020	4,368	116	59	0.5176
18/5/2020	4,618	121	66	0.4248
19/5/2020	4,853	125	72	0.4205
20/5/2020	5,271	142	78	0.4120
21/5/2020	5,542	138	84	0.4121
22/5/2020	5,948	–	90	0.3986
23/5/2020	6,248	–	95	0.4330
24/5/2020	6,638	–	104	0.5137
25/5/2020	6,930	–	114	0.4214
26/5/2020	7,210	–	124	0.4111
27/5/2020	7,761	–	133	0.4054
28/5/2020	8,300	–	142	0.4084
29/5/2020	8,722	–	154	0.3922
30/5/2020	9,474	–	162	0.4228
31/5/2020	9,780	–	170	0.4950
1/6/2020	10,510	–	171	0.4085
2/6/2020	11,256	–	177	0.4040
3/6/2020	11,398	–	181	0.3948
4/6/2020	12,923	–	196	0.3875
5/6/2020	14,208	–	202	0.3884
6/6/2020	15,850	–	208	0.3983
7/6/2020	16,623	–	214	0.4769
8/6/2020	16,948	–	226	0.3927
9/6/2020	18,090	–	236	0.3828
10/6/2020	19,433	–	256	0.3936
11/6/2020	20,507	–	274	0.4451
12/6/2020	21,396	–	282	0.3727
13/6/2020	21,959	–	293	0.4054
14/6/2020	22,871	–	304	0.4830
15/6/2020	23,684	–	319	0.3953
16/6/2020	25,379	–	348	0.4051
17/6/2020	27,140	–	365	0.3875
18/6/2020	28,521	–	379	0.3966
19/6/2020	30,902	–	396	0.3562
20/6/2020	32,238	–	405	0.4042
21/6/2020	33,227	–	423	0.4839
22/6/2020	34,148	–	449	0.4039
23/6/2020	35,368	–	475	0.3969
24/6/2020	37,254	–	495	0.3932
25/6/2020	38,871	–	509	0.3940
26/6/2020	41,326	–	532	0.3811
27/6/2020	42,766	–	537	0.4190
28/6/2020	44,905	–	548	0.4926
29/6/2020	47,071	–	559	0.4216
30/6/2020	49,218	–	587	0.4100
1/7/2020	50,676	–	620	0.4020
2/7/2020	52,281	–	631	0.4040
3/7/2020	53,996	–	643	0.3850
4/7/2020	55,760	–	671	0.4090
5/7/2020	57,854	–	699	0.4820
6/7/2020	60,383	–	726	0.4130
7/7/2020	62,694	–	767	0.3950
8/7/2020	64,314	–	801	0.3900
9/7/2020	65,677	–	823	0.4000
10/7/2020	67,297	–	856	0.3920
11/7/2020	68,406	–	871	0.4180
12/7/2020	70,712	–	902	0.4870
13/7/2020	72,284	–	930	0.4130
14/7/2020	73,654	–	960	0.4130
15/7/2020	75,379	–	1,001	0.4020
16/7/2020	77,621	–	1,037	0.4030
17/7/2020	79,400	–	1,060	0.3570
18/7/2020	81,163	–	1,075	0.3940
19/7/2020	82,412	–	1,085	0.4850
20/7/2020	84,287	–	1,112	0.4080
21/7/2020	86,076	–	1,158	0.4070
22/7/2020	87,801	–	1,176	0.3960
23/7/2020	90,023	–	1,218	0.3960
24/7/2020	92,414	–	1,244	0.3880
25/7/2020	94,187	–	1,275	0.4110
26/7/2020	96,332	–	1,308	0.4810
27/7/2020	98,480	–	1,339	0.4070
28/7/2020	100,726	–	1,391	0.4000
29/7/2020	102,342	–	1,419	0.3970
30/7/2020	104,442	–	1,444	0.3970
31/7/2020	106,292	–	1,469	0.3860

μ = δ \frac{1}{(\begin{array}{l} \begin{array}{l} t i m e u n i t_ \\ d e a t h \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} t i m e u n i t i s o l a t i o n_ \\ o r h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} t i m e u n i t i s o l a t i o n \\ o r h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n \end{array} \end{array})}

Faixa etária (anos)	Habitantes	Frequência (%)	Taxa de infecção (por 10 mil hab.)	Taxa de hospitalização de infectados (%)	Letalidade de infectados (%)
0-9	419.157	13,00	0,36	0,00	0,00
10-19	450.663	13,98	13,73	0,04	0,01
20-29	594.106	18,43	14,92	1,04	0,03
30-39	570.790	17,71	14,24	3,43	0,08
40-49	483.968	15,02	13,99	4,25	0,16
50-59	336.382	10,44	15,98	8,16	0,60
60-69	207.838	6,45	15,33	11,80	1,93
70-79	110.260	3,42	15,14	16,60	4,28
≥80	49.884	1,55	12,87	18,40	7,80
Total	3.223.048	100,00	13,02	4,57	0,58

Data	Casos acumulados	Internações em UTI ^a a) UTI: unidade de terapia intensiva - dados disponíveis até a data de 21/5/2020.	Óbitos acumulados	Percentual de isolamento
1/3/2020	1	–	–	0,4090
2/3/2020	1	–	–	0,2740
3/3/2020	1	–	–	0,2810
4/3/2020	1	–	–	0,2930
5/3/2020	1	–	–	0,2960
6/3/2020	1	–	–	0,2900
7/3/2020	1	–	–	0,3180
8/3/2020	1	–	–	0,3980
9/3/2020	1	–	–	0,2891
10/3/2020	1	–	–	0,2880
11/3/2020	2	–	–	0,2770
12/3/2020	2	–	–	0,3220
13/3/2020	2	–	–	0,3190
14/3/2020	6	–	–	0,3650
15/3/2020	8	–	–	0,4260
16/3/2020	13	–	–	0,3430
17/3/2020	22	–	–	0,3430
18/3/2020	26	–	–	0,3670
19/3/2020	42	–	–	0,3990
20/3/2020	87	–	–	0,4430
21/3/2020	100	–	–	0,5670
22/3/2020	117	1	–	0,6560
23/3/2020	133	1	1	0,5590
24/3/2020	177	1	1	0,6110
25/3/2020	182	6	1	0,5710
26/3/2020	201	6	1	0,5610
27/3/2020	241	8	1	0,5340
28/3/2020	260	13	1	0,5700
29/3/2020	298	19	2	0,5990
30/3/2020	312	20	2	0,5761
31/3/2020	333	30	3	0,5010
1/4/2020	370	30	4	0,4730
2/4/2020	400	41	6	0,4980
3/4/2020	419	40	9	0,4870
4/4/2020	456	38	10	0,5100
5/4/2020	468	41	12	0,5770
6/4/2020	485	37	12	0,4890
7/4/2020	503	40	12	0,4720
8/4/2020	509	42	13	0,4640
9/4/2020	527	35	14	0,4470
10/4/2020	556	33	14	0,5480
11/4/2020	592	32	14	0,4760
12/4/2020	618	33	16	0,5370
13/4/2020	641	30	17	0,4690
14/4/2020	651	28	19	0,4680
15/4/2020	688	30	22	0,4750
16/4/2020	727	29	22	0,4570
17/4/2020	756	25	24	0,4350
18/4/2020	796	26	24	0,4780
19/4/2020	860	28	24	0,5420
20/4/2020	875	28	24	0,4630
21/4/2020	913	29	24	0,5360
22/4/2020	959	30	25	0,4500
23/4/2020	968	30	26	0,4580
24/4/2020	1.012	32	26	0,4330
25/4/2020	1.020	34	27	0,4610
26/4/2020	1.125	34	27	0,5280
27/4/2020	1.189	35	28	0,4450
28/4/2020	1.230	36	28	0,4410
29/4/2020	1.313	38	28	0,4300
30/4/2020	1.423	38	30	0,4210
1/5/2020	1.546	43	31	0,4930
2/5/2020	1.605	45	32	0,4440
3/5/2020	1.720	49	33	0,4960
4/5/2020	1.793	59	33	0,4370
5/5/2020	1.837	56	34	0,4240
6/5/2020	2.046	60	35	0,4220
7/5/2020	2.258	60	35	0,4290
8/5/2020	2.442	64	37	0,4010
9/5/2020	2.576	66	39	0,4250
10/5/2020	2.682	72	42	0,4540
11/5/2020	2.799	78	44	0,4290
12/5/2020	2.979	87	46	0,4280
13/5/2020	3.192	92	48	0,4210
14/5/2020	3.416	94	51	0,4190
15/5/2020	3.786	86	55	0,4120
16/5/2020	4.140	84	56	0,4472
17/5/2020	4.368	116	59	0,5176
18/5/2020	4.618	121	66	0,4248
19/5/2020	4.853	125	72	0,4205
20/5/2020	5.271	142	78	0,4120
21/5/2020	5.542	138	84	0,4121
22/5/2020	5.948	–	90	0,3986
23/5/2020	6.248	–	95	0,4330
24/5/2020	6.638	–	104	0,5137
25/5/2020	6.930	–	114	0,4214
26/5/2020	7.210	–	124	0,4111
27/5/2020	7.761	–	133	0,4054
28/5/2020	8.300	–	142	0,4084
29/5/2020	8.722	–	154	0,3922
30/5/2020	9.474	–	162	0,4228
31/5/2020	9.780	–	170	0,4950
1/6/2020	10.510	–	171	0,4085
2/6/2020	11.256	–	177	0,4040
3/6/2020	11.398	–	181	0,3948
4/6/2020	12.923	–	196	0,3875
5/6/2020	14.208	–	202	0,3884
6/6/2020	15.850	–	208	0,3983
7/6/2020	16.623	–	214	0,4769
8/6/2020	16.948	–	226	0,3927
9/6/2020	18.090	–	236	0,3828
10/6/2020	19.433	–	256	0,3936
11/6/2020	20.507	–	274	0,4451
12/6/2020	21.396	–	282	0,3727
13/6/2020	21.959	–	293	0,4054
14/6/2020	22.871	–	304	0,4830
15/6/2020	23.684	–	319	0,3953
16/6/2020	25.379	–	348	0,4051
17/6/2020	27.140	–	365	0,3875
18/6/2020	28.521	–	379	0,3966
19/6/2020	30.902	–	396	0,3562
20/6/2020	32.238	–	405	0,4042
21/6/2020	33.227	–	423	0,4839
22/6/2020	34.148	–	449	0,4039
23/6/2020	35.368	–	475	0,3969
24/6/2020	37.254	–	495	0,3932
25/6/2020	38.871	–	509	0,3940
26/6/2020	41.326	–	532	0,3811
27/6/2020	42.766	–	537	0,4190
28/6/2020	44.905	–	548	0,4926
29/6/2020	47.071	–	559	0,4216
30/6/2020	49.218	–	587	0,4100
1/7/2020	50.676	–	620	0,4020
2/7/2020	52.281	–	631	0,4040
3/7/2020	53.996	–	643	0,3850
4/7/2020	55.760	–	671	0,4090
5/7/2020	57.854	–	699	0,4820
6/7/2020	60.383	–	726	0,4130
7/7/2020	62.694	–	767	0,3950
8/7/2020	64.314	–	801	0,3900
9/7/2020	65.677	–	823	0,4000
10/7/2020	67.297	–	856	0,3920
11/7/2020	68.406	–	871	0,4180
12/7/2020	70.712	–	902	0,4870
13/7/2020	72.284	–	930	0,4130
14/7/2020	73.654	–	960	0,4130
15/7/2020	75.379	–	1.001	0,4020
16/7/2020	77.621	–	1.037	0,4030
17/7/2020	79.400	–	1.060	0,3570
18/7/2020	81.163	–	1.075	0,3940
19/7/2020	82.412	–	1.085	0,4850
20/7/2020	84.287	–	1.112	0,4080
21/7/2020	86.076	–	1.158	0,4070
22/7/2020	87.801	–	1.176	0,3960
23/7/2020	90.023	–	1.218	0,3960
24/7/2020	92.414	–	1.244	0,3880
25/7/2020	94.187	–	1.275	0,4110
26/7/2020	96.332	–	1.308	0,4810
27/7/2020	98.480	–	1.339	0,4070
28/7/2020	100.726	–	1.391	0,4000
29/7/2020	102.342	–	1.419	0,3970
30/7/2020	104.442	–	1.444	0,3970
31/7/2020	106.292	–	1.469	0,3860

μ = δ \frac{1}{(\begin{array}{l} \begin{array}{l} t e m p o a t é_ \\ a m o r t e \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} t e m p o a t é i s o l a m e n t o_ \\ o u h o s p i t a l i z a ç \tilde{a} o \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} t e m p o e m \\ l e i t o r e g u l a r \end{array} \end{array})}

[1] Correspondence: Ivan Zimmermann - Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Brasília, DF, Brazil. Postcode: 70910-900 E-mail: ivanzricardo@gmail.com

Brasil

Brasil

Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures

Abstract

Objective:

Methods:

Results:

Conclusion: