Caracterización de casos e indicadores epidemiológicos y operativos de la lepra: análisis de series temporales y distribución espacial, Piauí, Brasil, 20072021

Barros, Ian da Costa Araújo; Sousa, Carliane da Conceição Machado; Silva, Neylany Raquel Ferreira da; Mascarenhas, Márcio Dênis Medeiros

Ian da Costa Araújo Barros

data analysis and interpretation

preparing the preliminary versions of the manuscript.

All the authors have approved the final version of the manuscript and are responsible for all aspects thereof, including the guarantee of its accuracy and integrity.

Universidade Federal do Piauí, Curso de Graduação em Medicina, Teresina, PI, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4844-7234

Carliane da Conceição Machado Sousa

critically reviewing the contents of the manuscript.

All the authors have approved the final version of the manuscript and are responsible for all aspects thereof, including the guarantee of its accuracy and integrity.

Universidade Federal do Piauí, Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde e Comunidade, Teresina, PI, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6766-0500

Neylany Raquel Ferreira da Silva

critically reviewing the contents of the manuscript.

All the authors have approved the final version of the manuscript and are responsible for all aspects thereof, including the guarantee of its accuracy and integrity.

Universidade Federal do Piauí, Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde e Comunidade, Teresina, PI, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2138-8203

Márcio Dênis Medeiros Mascarenhas

concept and design of the study

data analysis and interpretation

drafting and critically reviewing the intellectual contents of the manuscript.

All the authors have approved the final version of the manuscript and are responsible for all aspects thereof, including the guarantee of its accuracy and integrity.

Universidade Federal do Piauí, Centro de Inteligência em Agravos Tropicais Emergentes e Negligenciados, Teresina, PI, Brasil

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5064-2763

Correspondence: Ian da Costa Araújo Barros | iancosta26@hotmail.com

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Associate editor:

Ana Flávia de Morais Oliveira

Variables	Cases		Detection rate^a (per 100,000)		DRR^c	95%CI^b	p-value^d
Variables	N	%	Rate	95%CI ^b	DRR^c	95%CI^b	p-value^d
Total	17,075	100.0	36.5	34.5;38.6	-	-	-
Sex
Female	7,980	46.7	32.2	29.6;35.8	1.00	-	-
Male	9,095	53.3	40.9	37.9;44.2	1.27	1.13;1.43	< 0.001
Age group (in years)
≤ 14	1,188	7.0	10.7	8.6;13.2	1.00	-	-
15-39	5,744	33.6	31.9	29.0;35.0	2.99	2.38;3.77	< 0.001
40-59	5,906	34.6	57.8	52.4;63.8	5.43	4.30;6.85	< 0.001
≥ 60	4,237	24.8	71.2	63.0;80.4	6.68	5.24;8.53	< 0.001
Race skin/color
White	2,313	13.5	18.2	15.4;21.5	1.00	-	-
Black	2,563	15.0	57.7	49.6;67.1	3.17	2.54;3.98	< 0.001
Asian	230	1.3	22.5	13.3;37.4	1.24	0.73;2.11	0.217
Mixed race	11,592	67.9	41.5	38.8;44.5	2.29	1.91;2.74	< 0.001
Indigenous	59	0.3	67.9	1.4;264.5	3.74	0.93; 15.09	0.103^e
No information	318	1.9	-		-	-	-
Health region of residence
Carnaubais	992	5.8	19.7	13.9;28.0	1.14	0.73;1.78	0.289
Chapada das Mangabeiras	1,031	6.0	45.8	37.2;56.4	2.63	1.85;3.74	< 0.001
Cocais	1,237	7.2	17.9	14.1;22.6	1.03	0.71;1.48	0.443
Entre Rios	8,007	46.9	47.9	44.1;51.9	2.75	2.05;3.69	< 0.001
Planície Litorânea	1,117	6.5	17.4	13.1;23.1	1.00	-	-
Serra da Capivara	612	3.6	27.4	20.0;37.4	1.57	1.04;2.39	0.016
Tabuleiros do Alto Parnaíba	202	1.2	34.2	20.6;56.1	1.97	1.12;3.47	0.008
Vale do Canindé	498	2.9	37.1	27.1;50.6	2.13	1.40;3.24	< 0.001
Vale do Rio Guaribas	1,523	8.9	32.5	27.2;38.9	1.87	1.34;2.61	< 0.001
Vale do Sambito	399	2.3	34.7	25.0;47.9	1.99	1.30;3.06	< 0.001
Vale dos Rios Piauí and Itaueiras	1,457	8.5	49.9	41.2;60.5	2.87	2.04;4.04	< 0.001
Health macro-region of residence
Litoral	2,354	13.8	17.7	14.8;21.2	1.00	-	-
Meio-Norte	8,999	52.7	44.5	41.2;48.2	2.52	2.07;3.07	< 0.001
Semiárido	2,420	14.2	33.7	29.4;38.8	1.91	1.52;2.34	< 0.001
Cerrados	3,302	19.3	41.8	36.9;47.4	2.37	1.90;2.94	< 0.001

Variables	Cases		Detection rate^a (per 100,000)		DRR^c	95%CI^b	p-value^d
Variables	N	%	Rate	95%CI ^b	DRR^c	95%CI^b	p-value^d
Total	17,075	100.0	36.5	34.5;38.6	-	-	-
Operational classification ^e
Paucibacillary	7,096	41.6	14.0	12.8;15.4	1.00	-	-
Multibacillary	9,978	58.4	22.5	20.9;24.2	1.61	1.43;1.81	< 0.001
Grade of disability
Grade 0	11,190	65.5	23.6	22.0;25.3	11.55	8.98;14.85	< 0.001
Grade 1	3,251	19.0	6.3	5.5;7.2	3.09	2.34;4.08	< 0.001
Grade 2	956	5.6	2.0	1.6;2.6	1.00	-	-
Not assessed	1,145	6.7	-		-	-	-
No information	533	3.1	-		-	-	-
Clinical form
Indeterminate	3,913	22.9	7.5	6.6;8.5	1.42	1.16;1.73	< 0.001
Tuberculoid	2,709	15.9	5.3	4.5;6.1	1.00	-	-
Borderline	5,509	32.3	11.5	10.4;12.8	2.19	1.83;2.62	< 0.001
Lepromatous	2,561	15.0	6.2	5.4;7.1	1.18	0.97;1.45	0.054
Not classified	1,799	10.5	-		-	-	-
No information	584	3.4	-		-	-	-

Indicators	Average	APC^b (95%CI)^c	p-value^d	Trend
new case detection rate (per 100,000 inhabitants)
Total	36.5	-6.3 (-8.1;-4.5)	< 0.001	Falling
Female	32.2	-7.6 (-9.9;-5.3)	< 0.001	Falling
Male	40.9	-5.2 (-6.6;-3.7)	< 0.001	Falling
Age group (in years)
≤ 14	10.7	-8.6 (-12.7;-4.3)	0.001	Falling
15-39	31.9	-9.0 (-11.1;-6.9)	< 0.001	Falling
40-59	57.8	-6.8 (-8.7;-4.9)	< 0.001	Falling
≥ 60	71.2	-5.4 (-6.9;-3.8)	< 0.001	Falling
Health region of residence
Carnaubais	19.7	-6.5 (-11.0;-1.7)	0.013	Falling
Chapada das Mangabeiras	45.8	-6.8 (-9.7;-3.9)	< 0.001	Falling
Cocais	17.9	-4.2 (-7.7;-.05)	0.028	Falling
Entre Rios	47.9	-7.4 (-9.7;-5.1)	< 0.001	Falling
Planície Litorânea	17.4	-3.7 (-6.4;-0.8)	0.015	Falling
Serra da Capivara	27.4	-3.6 (-5.8;-1.4)	0.004	Falling
Tabuleiros do Alto Parnaíba	34.2	-3.9 (-7.0;-0.6)	0.023	Falling
Vale do Canindé	37.1	-3.9 (-7.4;-0.4)	0.033	Falling
Vale do Rio Guaribas	32.5	-3.1 (-6.1;0.1)	0.055	Stationary
Vale do Sambito	34.7	-4.6 (-8.6;-0.4)	0.033	Falling
Vale dos Rios Piauí e Itaueiras	49.9	-9.2 (-10.8;-7.6)	< 0.001	Falling
Health macro-region of residence
Litoral	17.7	-3.8 (-6.3;-1.3)	0.006	Falling
Meio-Norte	44.5	-7.4 (-9.5;-5.3)	< 0.001	Falling
Semiárido	33.7	-3.6 (-6.7;-0.5)	0.027	Falling
Cerrados	41.8	-7.2 (-8.6;-5.8)	< 0.001	Falling
Detection rate with G2D at the time of diagnosis (per 100,000 inhabitants)	2.0	-4.4 (-7.0;-1.8)	0.003	Falling
Proportion of new multibacillary cases (%)	58.4	4.1 (3.8;4 .5)	< 0.001	Rising
Proportion of new paucibacillary cases (%)	41.6	-6 .3 (-7.6;-4.9)	< 0.001	Falling

[1] Correspondence: Ian da Costa Araújo Barros | iancosta26@hotmail.com

Brasil

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Caracterización de casos e indicadores epidemiológicos y operativos de la lepra: análisis de series temporales y distribución espacial, Piauí, Brasil, 20072021

RESUMEN

Objetivo

Métodos

Resultados

Conclusión