On the coevolution of commercial and technological structures: theory and empirical evidence

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze how technological specialization patterns coevolve with the commercial specialization patterns. Given the interdependence between productive, technological and commercial structures, it is expected that demand shocks implicit to liberalization processes will generate impacts on the technological structure. The coevolution hypothesis will be tested by means of a panel data formed for 35 countries and 38 sectors from 1996 to 2013. The results confirm that commercial and technological patterns of specialization coevolved in all models and, mostly, in dynamic sectors. The demand-pull effect was also confirmed for the most internationalized and dynamic sectors. Multinational corporations emerged as a minor determinant of the technological specialization patterns in host countries. In relation to the autonomous determinants of technological specialization, cumulativeness seems to play a central role, while technological opportunity was relevant only in industries intensive in natural resources.

Keywords:
Technological and Commercial Structures; Structural Change; Commercial Liberalization