Chitolina, Lia; Foguel, Miguel Nathan; Menezes-Filho, Naercio Aquino

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20160009

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Articles • Rev. Bras. Econ. 70 (2) • Apr-Jun 2016 • https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20160009 copiar

The Impact of the Expansion of the Bolsa Família Program on the Time Allocation of Youths and Their Parents^* * We would like to express our gratitude to Fernando Botelho, Fabio Veras, the editor, and a referee for helpful comments. The paper has also benefited from comments received at the V Meeting of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality (ECINEQ) in Bari, the 2013 IARIW-IBGE conference on income, wealth and well-being in Rio de Janeiro, and the XXXV Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society. The usual disclaimer applies.

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Este artigo avalia o impacto da expansão do programa Bolsa Família às famílias com jovens entre 16 a 17 anos sobre a alocação do tempo dos jovens e sobre a oferta de trabalho de seus pais. O estimador de diferenças-em-diferenças para o parâmetro intenção de tratar foi utilizado comparando as famílias pobres com jovens de 16 anos com famílias pobres com adolescentes de 15 anos de idade, antes e depois da expansão do programa. Os resultados mostram que a concessão do benefício teve um impacto positivo e estatisticamente significativo sobre a frequência escolar e sobre a decisão dos jovens de estudar e trabalhar ao mesmo tempo. Os resultados indicam ausência de impacto nas áreas urbanas e efeito elevado para os jovens que vivem em áreas rurais. Estratificando a amostra regionalmente, impactos positivos foram encontrados para os jovens da região Nordestes (nas áreas urbana e rural) e da região Sudeste (somente na área urbana). Os resultados também mostram que o programa praticamente não afetou a oferta de trabalho dos pais dos jovens.

		2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
(1)	Extremely Poor	50	50	60	60	60	70
(2)	Poor	100	100	120	120	120	140
(3)	Basic Benefit	50	50	50	58	62	68
(4)	Variable Benefit	15	15	15	18	20	22
(5)	Variable Benefit for Youngsters	0	0	0	0	33	33

Deciles of Family	Distribution	Proportion
Income Distribution	Across the Deciles	Within the Deciles
1 (poorest)	26.0	43.2
2	24.4	41.5
3	19.5	29.5
4	12.9	25.4
5	8.5	15.1
6	4.4	6.7
7	2.5	4.2
8	1.1	1.8
9	0.5	0.7
10 (richest)	0.3	0.4
Total	100.0	–

	15 years-old (Control Group)	16-years-old (Treatment Group)	Difference
*Household*
Household size	5.70	5.57	0.13^* * 10 percent levels.
	(1.96)	(1.95)
Number of children	3.76	3.61	0.14^ 5 percent, and
	(1.84)	(1.81)
Age of the head of household	43.68	44.82	−1.14^* ***** 1 percent,
	(8.34)	(8.15)
Age of the youngest child	9.13	9.85	−0.72^* ***** 1 percent,
	(4.68)	(4.89)
Age of the oldest child	17.32	18.34	−1.02^* ***** 1 percent,
	(3.28)	(3.63)
Urban	0.65	0.62	0.03
	(0.48)	(0.48)
Other income	87.82	88.40	−0.58
	(67.12)	(66.57)
Individuals
Mother
Age	40.26	41.58	−1.31^* ***** 1 percent,
	(6.75)	(6.90)
Educational level	3.68	3.48	0.20
	(3.27)	(3.22)
Employment	0.65	0.62	0.02
	(0.48)	(0.14)
Weekly working hours	27.13	27.49	−0.35
	(16.57)	(16.45)
Wage from main job	187.77	189.07	−1.28
	(128.48)	(129.03)
Father
Age	44.26	45.76	−1.49^* ***** 1 percent,
	(8.77)	(8.40)
Educational level	3.09	2.87	0.22
	(3.21)	(3.16)
Employment	0.93	0.91	0.02
	(0.25)	(0.28)
Weekly working hours	44.42	43.72	0.70
	(12.70)	(12.57)
Wage from main job	286.19	293.54	−7.35
	(152.75)	(154.65)
Childrens
Educational level	5.64	6.14	−0.50^* ***** 1 percent,
	(2.01)	(2.27)
Employment	0.33	0.41	−0.08^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.47)	(0.49)
Weekly working hours	23.73	26.18	−2.45^* ***** 1 percent,
	(13.76)	(13.48)
Wage from main job	96.23	111.12	−14.90^* * 10 percent levels.
	(67.55)	(77.55)

Variables	All	Urban	Rural
Trend	0.003	0.003	0.003
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Treated	−0.067 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.071 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.060 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.022)
Trend × Treated	0.002	0.003	0.000
	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.006)
Constant	0.864 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.874 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.843 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.014)
Observations	18,268	11,868	6,400
R-squared	0.007	0.008	0.006

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3) Urban	(3) Rural
Treated	−0.080 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.073 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.065 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.090 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.026)
2009	0.031 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.036 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.042 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.015
	(0.012)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.029)
Treated_2009	0.049 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.047 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.029	0.090 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.022)	(0.033)
Market Wages	–	−0.041 ^ 5 percent, and	−0.051 ^ 5 percent, and	0.008
		(0.021)	(0.024)	(0.045)
Constant	0.890 ^* ***** 1 percent,	1.035 ^* ***** 1 percent,	1.069 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.884 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.009)	(0.066)	(0.077)	(0.140)
Observations	4,781	4,781	3,193	1,588
R-squared	0.015	0.052	0.058	0.058

Variables	All	Urban	Rural
Not Studying nor Working	−0.038	−0.028	−0.086
	(0.025)	(0.029)	(0.059)
Studying Only	0.004	0.012	−0.020
	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.040)
Working Only	−0.010	−0.009	0.008
	(0.029)	(0.034)	(0.055)
Studying and Working	0.044 ^ 5 percent, and	0.026	0.097 ^ 5 percent, and
	(0.022)	(0.025)	(0.048)
Observations	4,781	3,193	1,588

Variables	Boys	Girls	Youngest	Boys and Youngest
*All*
Treated*2009	0.064 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.032	0.101 ^ 5 percent, and	0.150 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.044)	(0.065)
N	2,577	2,204	1,035	569
Urban
Treated*2009	0.035	0.025	0.036	0.066
	(0.033)	(0.030)	(0.053)	(0.085)
N	1,673	1,520	704	370
Rural
Treated*2009	0.124 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.057	0.231 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.300 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.049)	(0.043)		(0.106)
N	904	684	(0.084) 331	199

Variables	Boys	Girls	Youngest	Boys and Youngest
Not Studying nor Working	−0.052	−0.021	−0.030	−0.020
	(0.039)	(0.029)	(0.055)	(0.078)
Studying Only	−0.003	0.003	−0.108	−0.231
	(0.024)	(0.012)	(0.095)	(0.151)
Working Only	0.025	−0.033	0.077	0.126
	(0.040)	(0.036)	(0.078)	(0.100)
Studying and Working	0.030	0.050 ^ 5 percent, and	0.061	0.125 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.035)	(0.023)	(0.039)	(0.052)
N	2,577	2,204	1,035	569

	Mothers		Fathers
Variables	Probabilityof work (1)	Working hours (2)	Probability of work (3)	Working hours (4)
Variables	Probabilityof work (1)	Working hours (2)	Probability of work (3)	Working hours (4)
*All*
Treated*2009	0.036	1.852	0.016	−0.0005
	(0.027)	−1.276	(0.018)	(0.930)
Observations	4,620	2,405	3,622	3,015
*Urban*
Treated*2009	0.019	0.685	0.017	−0.304
	(0.035)	−1.860	(0.027)	−1.271
Observations	3,090	1,341	2,194	1,674
*Rural*
Treated*2009	0.092 ^** * 10 percent levels.	4.034 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.017	0.444
	(0.044)	−1.683	(0.018)	−1.377
Observations	1,530	1,064	1,428	1,341

Variables	Midwest	Northeast	North	Southeast	South
All
Treated*2009	−0.017	0.076 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.004	0.093 ^ 5 percent, and	−0.032
	(0.076)	(0.025)	(0.047)	(0.045)	(0.078)
Observations	306	2,523	770	820	362
Urban
Treated*2009	−0.036	0.063 ^ 5 percent, and	−0.010	0.093 ^* * 10 percent levels.	−0.137
	(0.088)	(0.032)	(0.058)	(0.048)	(0.093)
Observations	240	1,551	491	647	264
Rural
Treated*2009	−0.028	0.100 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.012	0.071	0.259 ^* * 10 percent levels.
	(0.148)	(0.040)	(0.085)	(0.114)	(0.142)
Observations	66	972	279	173	98
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Variables	Without Controls (1)	With Controls (2)
Treated	−0.063 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.061 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.015)	(0.015)
2006	0.001	−0.013
	(0.013)	(0.015)
Treated*2006	−0.014	−0.008
	(0.021)	(0.021)
Constant	0.885 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.829 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.010)	(0.067)
Observations	4,601	4,601
R-squared	0.010	0.043

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