The Impact of the Expansion of the <i>Bolsa Família</i> Program on the Time Allocation of Youths and Their Parents

Chitolina, Lia; Foguel, Miguel Nathan; Menezes-Filho, Naercio Aquino

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20160009

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Articles • Rev. Bras. Econ. 70 (2) • Apr-Jun 2016 • https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20160009 copy

The Impact of the Expansion of the Bolsa Família Program on the Time Allocation of Youths and Their Parents^* * We would like to express our gratitude to Fernando Botelho, Fabio Veras, the editor, and a referee for helpful comments. The paper has also benefited from comments received at the V Meeting of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality (ECINEQ) in Bari, the 2013 IARIW-IBGE conference on income, wealth and well-being in Rio de Janeiro, and the XXXV Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society. The usual disclaimer applies.

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

This paper evaluates the impact of the expansion of the Bolsa Família program to families with youths aged 16 to 17 years on the time allocation of youths and on the labor supply of their parents. A differences-in-differences intention to treat estimator was used to compare poor households with 16-year-old youths with households with 15-year-old adolescents before and after the expansion. The results show that granting the benefit had a positive and significant impact on school enrollment and on the decision of young people to study and work at the same time. The results evince that the impact seems to be absent in urban areas but it is quite high for youths living in rural areas. When the sample is stratified by region, positive effects were found on young people's school enrollment especially in the Northeast (in both urban and rural areas) and in the Southeast (only in the urban area). The econometric results also showed that the program hardly impacted the parents' labor supply decisions.

Keywords:
Bolsa Família; Youth; Education; Labor Supply

		2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
(1)	Extremely Poor	50	50	60	60	60	70
(2)	Poor	100	100	120	120	120	140
(3)	Basic Benefit	50	50	50	58	62	68
(4)	Variable Benefit	15	15	15	18	20	22
(5)	Variable Benefit for Youngsters	0	0	0	0	33	33

Deciles of Family	Distribution	Proportion
Income Distribution	Across the Deciles	Within the Deciles
1 (poorest)	26.0	43.2
2	24.4	41.5
3	19.5	29.5
4	12.9	25.4
5	8.5	15.1
6	4.4	6.7
7	2.5	4.2
8	1.1	1.8
9	0.5	0.7
10 (richest)	0.3	0.4
Total	100.0	–

	15 years-old (Control Group)	16-years-old (Treatment Group)	Difference
*Household*
Household size	5.70	5.57	0.13^* * 10 percent levels.
	(1.96)	(1.95)
Number of children	3.76	3.61	0.14^ 5 percent, and
	(1.84)	(1.81)
Age of the head of household	43.68	44.82	−1.14^* ***** 1 percent,
	(8.34)	(8.15)
Age of the youngest child	9.13	9.85	−0.72^* ***** 1 percent,
	(4.68)	(4.89)
Age of the oldest child	17.32	18.34	−1.02^* ***** 1 percent,
	(3.28)	(3.63)
Urban	0.65	0.62	0.03
	(0.48)	(0.48)
Other income	87.82	88.40	−0.58
	(67.12)	(66.57)
Individuals
Mother
Age	40.26	41.58	−1.31^* ***** 1 percent,
	(6.75)	(6.90)
Educational level	3.68	3.48	0.20
	(3.27)	(3.22)
Employment	0.65	0.62	0.02
	(0.48)	(0.14)
Weekly working hours	27.13	27.49	−0.35
	(16.57)	(16.45)
Wage from main job	187.77	189.07	−1.28
	(128.48)	(129.03)
Father
Age	44.26	45.76	−1.49^* ***** 1 percent,
	(8.77)	(8.40)
Educational level	3.09	2.87	0.22
	(3.21)	(3.16)
Employment	0.93	0.91	0.02
	(0.25)	(0.28)
Weekly working hours	44.42	43.72	0.70
	(12.70)	(12.57)
Wage from main job	286.19	293.54	−7.35
	(152.75)	(154.65)
Childrens
Educational level	5.64	6.14	−0.50^* ***** 1 percent,
	(2.01)	(2.27)
Employment	0.33	0.41	−0.08^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.47)	(0.49)
Weekly working hours	23.73	26.18	−2.45^* ***** 1 percent,
	(13.76)	(13.48)
Wage from main job	96.23	111.12	−14.90^* * 10 percent levels.
	(67.55)	(77.55)

Variables	All	Urban	Rural
Trend	0.003	0.003	0.003
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Treated	−0.067 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.071 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.060 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.022)
Trend × Treated	0.002	0.003	0.000
	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.006)
Constant	0.864 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.874 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.843 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.014)
Observations	18,268	11,868	6,400
R-squared	0.007	0.008	0.006

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3) Urban	(3) Rural
Treated	−0.080 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.073 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.065 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.090 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.026)
2009	0.031 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.036 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.042 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.015
	(0.012)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.029)
Treated_2009	0.049 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.047 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.029	0.090 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.022)	(0.033)
Market Wages	–	−0.041 ^ 5 percent, and	−0.051 ^ 5 percent, and	0.008
		(0.021)	(0.024)	(0.045)
Constant	0.890 ^* ***** 1 percent,	1.035 ^* ***** 1 percent,	1.069 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.884 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.009)	(0.066)	(0.077)	(0.140)
Observations	4,781	4,781	3,193	1,588
R-squared	0.015	0.052	0.058	0.058

Variables	All	Urban	Rural
Not Studying nor Working	−0.038	−0.028	−0.086
	(0.025)	(0.029)	(0.059)
Studying Only	0.004	0.012	−0.020
	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.040)
Working Only	−0.010	−0.009	0.008
	(0.029)	(0.034)	(0.055)
Studying and Working	0.044 ^ 5 percent, and	0.026	0.097 ^ 5 percent, and
	(0.022)	(0.025)	(0.048)
Observations	4,781	3,193	1,588

Variables	Boys	Girls	Youngest	Boys and Youngest
*All*
Treated*2009	0.064 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.032	0.101 ^ 5 percent, and	0.150 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.044)	(0.065)
N	2,577	2,204	1,035	569
Urban
Treated*2009	0.035	0.025	0.036	0.066
	(0.033)	(0.030)	(0.053)	(0.085)
N	1,673	1,520	704	370
Rural
Treated*2009	0.124 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.057	0.231 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.300 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.049)	(0.043)		(0.106)
N	904	684	(0.084) 331	199

Variables	Boys	Girls	Youngest	Boys and Youngest
Not Studying nor Working	−0.052	−0.021	−0.030	−0.020
	(0.039)	(0.029)	(0.055)	(0.078)
Studying Only	−0.003	0.003	−0.108	−0.231
	(0.024)	(0.012)	(0.095)	(0.151)
Working Only	0.025	−0.033	0.077	0.126
	(0.040)	(0.036)	(0.078)	(0.100)
Studying and Working	0.030	0.050 ^ 5 percent, and	0.061	0.125 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.035)	(0.023)	(0.039)	(0.052)
N	2,577	2,204	1,035	569

	Mothers		Fathers
Variables	Probabilityof work (1)	Working hours (2)	Probability of work (3)	Working hours (4)
Variables	Probabilityof work (1)	Working hours (2)	Probability of work (3)	Working hours (4)
*All*
Treated*2009	0.036	1.852	0.016	−0.0005
	(0.027)	−1.276	(0.018)	(0.930)
Observations	4,620	2,405	3,622	3,015
*Urban*
Treated*2009	0.019	0.685	0.017	−0.304
	(0.035)	−1.860	(0.027)	−1.271
Observations	3,090	1,341	2,194	1,674
*Rural*
Treated*2009	0.092 ^** * 10 percent levels.	4.034 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.017	0.444
	(0.044)	−1.683	(0.018)	−1.377
Observations	1,530	1,064	1,428	1,341

Variables	Midwest	Northeast	North	Southeast	South
All
Treated*2009	−0.017	0.076 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.004	0.093 ^ 5 percent, and	−0.032
	(0.076)	(0.025)	(0.047)	(0.045)	(0.078)
Observations	306	2,523	770	820	362
Urban
Treated*2009	−0.036	0.063 ^ 5 percent, and	−0.010	0.093 ^* * 10 percent levels.	−0.137
	(0.088)	(0.032)	(0.058)	(0.048)	(0.093)
Observations	240	1,551	491	647	264
Rural
Treated*2009	−0.028	0.100 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.012	0.071	0.259 ^* * 10 percent levels.
	(0.148)	(0.040)	(0.085)	(0.114)	(0.142)
Observations	66	972	279	173	98
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Variables	Without Controls (1)	With Controls (2)
Treated	−0.063 ^* ***** 1 percent,	−0.061 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.015)	(0.015)
2006	0.001	−0.013
	(0.013)	(0.015)
Treated*2006	−0.014	−0.008
	(0.021)	(0.021)
Constant	0.885 ^* ***** 1 percent,	0.829 ^* ***** 1 percent,
	(0.010)	(0.067)
Observations	4,601	4,601
R-squared	0.010	0.043

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