INCOME TRANSFERS AND ELECTIONS: THE LATIN AMERICAN TRAJECTORY

In the last fifteen years, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, that is, programs that deliver cash to poor families imposing health and education conditionalities on the beneficiaries, have spread throughout Latin America. Recent studies show that these programs bring about electoral payoffs among the poor and, as a consequence, they help presidents to get re-elected. In this article, the author shows that the probability of re-election does not increase with investments on CCT programs. More importantly, its analyses demonstrate that in most countries of the region, electoral gains and losses are associated with the proportion of beneficiary families. Presidents who have invested in these programs lost votes in the most developed areas and gained votes in the impoverished areas of their countries.

Income redistribution; Bolsa Família; Presidential elections; Latin America; Re-election