Attributes of soil, climate and crop management were characterized in ten growing coffee plantations in the western region of São Paulo State. The purpose of this work was to identify the main limiting productivity factors and develop a simple multivariate model to explain observed yield in the period between 1984 and 1989. Over two thousand traits were initially analyzed by simple correlation to the final yield, and the significant ones, with at least 5% level according to the Student test t, were selected and combined in successive multiple regression analysis with the final yield. Three equations were selected following the described methodology, having fourteen, five and six independent variables, with explanation levels (or coefficients of determination) of 77, 73 and 75%, respectively. Four important variables were common to the three selected models: coffee yield in the preceding year, crop age, subsurface silt plus clay content and average of absolute minimum temperature during the bud development and flowering stages (July to September). Other selected variables were: rainfall during bud development and flowering stages, rainfall during maturation and harvest stages, soil density and available water close to plants (layer 20-40 cm), macroporosity in the machine wheel track (layer 0-20 cm), nitrogen fertilizer, pH and phosphorus in fertilized area (layer 20-40 cm), exchangeable calcium content and Mg:K exchangeable ratio in fertilized area (layer 0-20 cm). A general analysis of six years of coffee production indicated a steady annual reduction in yield, at the rate of 400 kg per hectare per year. The results emphasize the need to improve liming, deep phosphate application, restore magnesium content to acceptable levels and a more balanced fertilization practice. The models also indicated the importance of choosing adequate planting areas. Places prone to cold air accumulation during the winter or soil profiles with high textural gradient should be avoided for coffee production.
coffee; land evaluation; modelling; productivity