Entrenching right-wing populism under covid-19: denialism, social mobility, and government evaluation in Brazil

Rennó, Lucio; Avritzer, Leonardo; Carvalho, Priscila Delgado de

doi:10.1590/0103-3352.2021.36.247120

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Seção Especial: A Ciência Política frente à crise do COVID-19 • Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Polít. (36) • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-3352.2021.36.247120 copy

Entrenching right-wing populism under covid-19: denialism, social mobility, and government evaluation in Brazil

Enraizando o populismo de direita sob a covid-19: negacionismo, mobilidade social e aprovação do governo no Brasil

El afianzamiento del populismo de derecha bajo covid-19: negación, movilidad social y aprobación del gobierno en Brasil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

This paper analyzes how President Jair Bolsonaro’s attitudes and policies towards the covid-19 pandemic reverberated in the population as a way of exploring the microlevel congruence between voter and representative positions. We investigate popular support for Brazilian president positions denying the covid-19 pandemic, bringing together supply and demand sides of right-wing populism. Using public opinion data from a survey applied in mid-2020, we focus on how support for the public health system, positions on which government level should lead the responses to the pandemic, perception of risks associated with the virus and adoption of social distancing varied among citizens. Results show low levels of support to denialist positions, except among core Bolsonaro supporters. However, perceptions of social mobility, as an indicator of status threat or gain, were important to explain support of the Bolsonaro government in the period.

Keywords:
pandemic; right-wing populism; denialism; public opinion; Brazil

Variables	Percentage
Positive Government Evaluation	24
Critical of the Brazilian Health system	14
Favorable to Centralization in Federal Government	20
Negationist Position	21
Leaving Home Normally	04
Leaving Home Carefully	50
Leaving Home only when Inevitable	37
Not Leaving Home at All	09
Upward Social Mobility - long-term	09
Downward Social Mobility - long-term	18
Upward Social Mobility - short-term	04
Downward Social Mobility - short-term	08

Variables	Government evaluation	Critical of SUS	Centralization in Fed. Gov.	Negationism	Social distancing
Downward Mobility Long-Term	1,12	0,87	0,64*	1,14	1,28
Downward Mobility Long-Term	(0,349)	(0,229)	(0,165)	(0,302)	(0,240)
Upward Mobility Long-Term	0,55	1,02	0,96	1,24	1,07
Upward Mobility Long-Term	(0,235)	(0,332)	(0,295)	(0,405)	(0,241)
Downward Mobility Short-Term	0,84	1,33	0,85	0,69	1,24
Downward Mobility Short-Term	(0,328)	(0,459)	(0,310)	(0,272)	(0,334)
Upward Mobility Short-Term	4,12**	2,87***	0,92	1,24	0,96
Upward Mobility Short-Term	(2,441)	(1,150)	(0,382)	(0,585)	(0,369)
Critical of SUS	1,27	.
Critical of SUS	(0,415)	(.)
Centralization in Federal Government	1,78*		.
Centralization in Federal Government	(0,539)		(.)
Negationism	1,93**			.
Negationism	(0,552)			(.)
Social Distancing	0,66**				.
Social Distancing	(0,121)				(.)
Economy as national problem	0,80	1,80*	1,50	0,98	0,72
Economy as national problem	(0,408)	(0,577)	(0,463)	(0,390)	(0,193)
Pandemic as national problem	0,86	1,13	0,88	0,85	1,37**
Pandemic as national problem	(0,258)	(0,265)	(0,198)	(0,200)	(0,211)
Corruption as national problem	0,79	0,94	0,80	1,18	1,12
Corruption as national problem	(0,233)	(0,248)	(0,188)	(0,291)	(0,205)
Female	1,03	1,09	0,76	0,83	2,32***
Female	(0,261)	(0,209)	(0,134)	(0,162)	(0,311)
2.gr_age - 18-24 years old	0,65	1,73	1,06	1,05	0,38**
2.gr_age - 18-24 years old	(0,590)	(1,182)	(0,615)	(0,746)	(0,145)
3.gr_age - 25-34 years old	1,21	1,51	0,76	1,11	0,52*
3.gr_age - 25-34 years old	(1,087)	(1,022)	(0,439)	(0,758)	(0,196)
4.gr_age - 35-44 years old	0,65	1,63	1,31	1,54	0,40**
4.gr_age - 35-44 years old	(0,593)	(1,094)	(0,723)	(1,052)	(0,152)
5.gr_age - 45-54 years old	0,87	1,38	1,25	2,04	0,61
5.gr_age - 45-54 years old	(0,794)	(0,945)	(0,706)	(1,397)	(0,233)
6.gr_age - 55-64 years old	0,55	1,86	1,28	1,31	0,96
6.gr_age - 55-64 years old	(0,519)	(1,282)	(0,741)	(0,903)	(0,367)
7.gr_age - Over 65 years old	0,87	0,69	0,54	1,35	3,06***
7.gr_age - Over 65 years old	(0,854)	(0,521)	(0,348)	(0,978)	(1,274)
African-Brazilian (preto e pardo)	0,99	0,87	0,92	0,79	0,89
African-Brazilian (preto e pardo)	(0,245)	(0,171)	(0,169)	(0,164)	(0,116)
Evangelical	1,13	0,84	1,19	1,71***	1,14
Evangelical	(0,297)	(0,190)	(0,227)	(0,353)	(0,179)
2.gr_income - 1 to 2 minimum wages	0,82	0,61	0,60*	1,10	1,09
2.gr_income - 1 to 2 minimum wages	(0,378)	(0,190)	(0,179)	(0,383)	(0,229)
3.gr_income - 2 to 3 minimum wages	0,54	0,71	0,82	1,14	0,99
3.gr_income - 2 to 3 minimum wages	(0,231)	(0,227)	(0,238)	(0,413)	(0,222)
4.gr_income - 3 to 5 minimum wages	0,60	0,89	0,60*	1,16	1,12
4.gr_income - 3 to 5 minimum wages	(0,259)	(0,271)	(0,180)	(0,425)	(0,255)
5.gr_income - 5 to 10 minimum wages	0,90	0,92	0,76	1,08	0,89
5.gr_income - 5 to 10 minimum wages	(0,381)	(0,298)	(0,235)	(0,417)	(0,209)
6.gr_income - 10 to 15 minimum wages	0,77	0,72	0,59	0,65	1,35
6.gr_income - 10 to 15 minimum wages	(0,440)	(0,401)	(0,275)	(0,343)	(0,502)
7.gr_income - 15 to 20 minimum wages	1,04	0,73		0,31	1,17
7.gr_income - 15 to 20 minimum wages	(0,847)	(0,580)		(0,417)	(0,598)
8.gr_income - Over 20 minimum wages		2,50	0,55	1,22	1,27
8.gr_income - Over 20 minimum wages		(1,832)	(0,525)	(1,202)	(0,687)
Difference between Lula and Bolsonaro	0,61***	0,95***	0,87***	0,76***	1,05***
Difference between Lula and Bolsonaro	(0,028)	(0,019)	(0,018)	(0,021)	(0,016)
Anti-PT	0,78	1,31	1,73***	1,59**	1,16
Anti-PT	(0,228)	(0,313)	(0,362)	(0,338)	(0,212)
Pro-PT		0,68	2,04*	1,31	1,17
Pro-PT		(0,301)	(0,775)	(0,917)	(0,277)
/cut1					0,09***
/cut1					(0,043)
/cut2					3,37**
/cut2					(1,605)
/cut3					38,80***
/cut3					(18,846)
Constant	0,34	0,11***	0,40	0,11***
Constant	(0,370)	(0,090)	(0,272)	(0,091)
Observations	884	977	961	977	977
r2_p	0,528	0,0534	0,140	0,331	0,0822

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E-mail: rbcp@unb.br

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[TFN1] Source: INCT, 2020INCT - Instituto da Democracia e da Democratização da Comunicação. A cara da democracia no Brasil. INCT, Belo Horizonte, 2020. Available at: Available at: https://www.institutodademocracia.org/blog/categories/a-cara-da-democracia-no-brasil . Accessed on: 28 set. 2021.
https://www.institutodademocracia.org/bl... .