Estágios do ciclo de vida e decisões corporativas

O estudo contribui ao apresentar um cenário das decisões de investimento, financiamento, dividendos e caixa, revelando padrões e características da evolução das empresas brasileiras ao longo dos estágios do ciclo de vida. Para isso, testou-se uma proxy alternativa do ciclo de vida capaz de classificar as empresas em diferentes estágios, inclusive turbulência e declínio, não definidos pelo modelo de Dickinson (2011)Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. [Forthcoming version]. The Accounting Review. https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804
https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804... , e aplicou-se uma metodologia mais robusta, levando em conta potenciais problemas de endogeneidade, desconsiderados pelos estudos anteriores.

Design/metodologia/abordagem:

A amostra é composta por 203 companhias listadas na B3, no período de 2010 a 2018. Os dados foram obtidos na base de dados Thomson Reuters Eikon. A estimação dos parâmetros dos modelos se deu pelo GMM-SYS (Generalized Method of Moments), de modo a atenuar problemas de endogeneidade, variáveis omitidas e heterogeneidade.

Resultados:

Os resultados sugerem que as empresas brasileiras não seguem um padrão e ficam oscilando entre os estágios, e que existe uma forte evidência do efeito do ciclo de vida nas decisões corporativas. Na introdução e crescimento, as empresas investem mais, têm mais dívidas, pagam menos dividendos e têm maior disponibilidade de caixa. Já na maturidade, os investimentos, as dívidas e o nível de caixa são menores. Na turbulência, nenhum resultado foi significante, requerendo estudos adicionais para explorar melhor o estágio em países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil.

Palavras-chave
ciclo de vida; decisões de investimento; decisões de financiamento; decisões de dividendos; decisões do caixa

Variable	Expected sign				Theoretical basis
Variable	I.	F.	D.	C.	Theoretical basis
I (introduction)	+	+	-	+	Anthony and Ramesh (1992)Anthony, J. H., & Ramesh, K. (1992). Association between accounting performance measures and stock prices: A test of the life cycle hypothesis. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15(2/3), 203-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)90018-W https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)900... , Bulan and Yan (2010)Bulan, L., & Yan, Z. (2010). Firm maturity and the pecking order theory. Working paper, Brandeis University and New Jersey Institute of Technology. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1760505 https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1760505... , Dickinson (2011)Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. [Forthcoming version]. The Accounting Review. https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804 https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804... , Faff et al. (2016)Faff, R., Kwok, W. C., Podolski, E. J., & Wong, G. (2016). Do corporate policies follow a life-cycle? Journal of Banking & Finance, 69, 95-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.009 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.... , and Victor et al. (2018)Victor, F. G., Carpio, G. B., & Vendruscolo, M. I. (2018). Ciclo de vida das companhias abertas brasileiras como determinante de sua estrutura de capital. Revista Universo Contábil, 14(1), 50-71. http://dx.doi.org/10.4270/RUC.2018103 http://dx.doi.org/10.4270/RUC.2018103... .
G (growth)	+	+	-	+	Anthony and Ramesh (1992)Anthony, J. H., & Ramesh, K. (1992). Association between accounting performance measures and stock prices: A test of the life cycle hypothesis. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15(2/3), 203-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)90018-W https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)900... , DeAngelo et al. (2006)DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., & Stulz, R. M. (2006). Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory. Journal of Financial Economics, 81(2), 227-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.07.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.0... , Bulan and Yan (2010)Bulan, L., & Yan, Z. (2010). Firm maturity and the pecking order theory. Working paper, Brandeis University and New Jersey Institute of Technology. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1760505 https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1760505... , Dickinson (2011)Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. [Forthcoming version]. The Accounting Review. https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804 https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804... , Faff et al. (2016)Faff, R., Kwok, W. C., Podolski, E. J., & Wong, G. (2016). Do corporate policies follow a life-cycle? Journal of Banking & Finance, 69, 95-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.009 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.... , and Victor et al. (2018)Victor, F. G., Carpio, G. B., & Vendruscolo, M. I. (2018). Ciclo de vida das companhias abertas brasileiras como determinante de sua estrutura de capital. Revista Universo Contábil, 14(1), 50-71. http://dx.doi.org/10.4270/RUC.2018103 http://dx.doi.org/10.4270/RUC.2018103... .
M (maturity)	-	-	+	-	Anthony and Ramesh (1992)Anthony, J. H., & Ramesh, K. (1992). Association between accounting performance measures and stock prices: A test of the life cycle hypothesis. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15(2/3), 203-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)90018-W https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)900... , DeAngelo et al. (2006)DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., & Stulz, R. M. (2006). Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory. Journal of Financial Economics, 81(2), 227-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.07.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.0... , Bulan and Yan (2010)Bulan, L., & Yan, Z. (2010). Firm maturity and the pecking order theory. Working paper, Brandeis University and New Jersey Institute of Technology. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1760505 https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1760505... , Dickinson (2011)Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. [Forthcoming version]. The Accounting Review. https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804 https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804... , Faff et al. (2016)Faff, R., Kwok, W. C., Podolski, E. J., & Wong, G. (2016). Do corporate policies follow a life-cycle? Journal of Banking & Finance, 69, 95-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.009 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.... , and Victor et al. (2018)Victor, F. G., Carpio, G. B., & Vendruscolo, M. I. (2018). Ciclo de vida das companhias abertas brasileiras como determinante de sua estrutura de capital. Revista Universo Contábil, 14(1), 50-71. http://dx.doi.org/10.4270/RUC.2018103 http://dx.doi.org/10.4270/RUC.2018103... .
S/D (shake-out/decline)	-	-	-	-	Anthony and Ramesh (1992)Anthony, J. H., & Ramesh, K. (1992). Association between accounting performance measures and stock prices: A test of the life cycle hypothesis. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15(2/3), 203-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)90018-W https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)900... , Dickinson (2011)Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. [Forthcoming version]. The Accounting Review. https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804 https://ssrn.com/abstract=755804... , and Faff et al. (2016)Faff, R., Kwok, W. C., Podolski, E. J., & Wong, G. (2016). Do corporate policies follow a life-cycle? Journal of Banking & Finance, 69, 95-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.009 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.... .

	DCS (A)	%	FAFF (B)	%	(B - A)	%
Introduction	166	10.6%	164	10.4%	-2	-1.2%
Growth	386	24.6%	437	27.9%	51	11.7%
Maturity	716	45.7%	780	49.8%	64	8.2%
Shake-out/decline	298	19.0%	185	11.8%	-113	-61.1%
Total	1566	100%	1566	100%

		Introduction	Growth	Maturity	Shake-out/decline
		2017
Introduction	2018	25.00%	16.00%	17.24%	13.64%
Growth		25.00%	30.00%	11.21%	18.18%
Maturity		50.00%	54.00%	71.55%	40.91%
Shake-out/decline		0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	27.27%
		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%

Introduction	Growth	Maturity	Shake-out/decline
Embraer	Companhia B. de Distribuição	Petrobras	Minupar Participações
Iochpe Maxion	Suzano Holding	Vale	Nordon Ind. Metalurgicas
Magazine Luiza	Suzano	JBS	CCX Colombia
RaiaDrogasil	Kroton Educacional	Telefônica Brasil	Hercules
Dasa	Marfrig Global Foods	Ambev	Advanced Digital H. M. Preventiva

Dependent variables	Introduction			Growth			Maturity			Shake-out/decline
Dependent variables	Mean	S.D.	N	Mean	S.D.	N	Mean	S.D.	N	Mean	S.D.	N
Investment	0.056	0.648	133	0.068	0.066	377	0.046	0.039	710	0.034	0.049	129
Debt	0.371	0.676	131	0.324	0.453	382	0.225	0.318	678	0.346	0.765	137
Cash	0.107	0.145	156	0.103	0.114	428	0.085	0.091	767	0.053	0.103	175
Dividends	0.021	0.034	59	0.025	0.037	250	0.039	0.046	497	0.016	0.021	47

Variables	Investment	Debt	Dividends	Cash
DC_it-1	0.539^***	0.188^**	0.427^***	0.373^***
Introduction	0.218^***	0.212^**	-0.437^**	0.010
Growth	0.188^***	0.322^***	-0.634^***	0.011^**
Shake-out	-0.095	-0.094	-0.414	0.005
Size	0.028	0.152^***	-0.061^*	0.005^***
Operating cashflow	2.589^***	0.286	2.666^***	0.105^***
Availability	-0.020	0.591	1.031
Opportunity	0.079^*	-0.181^**
Tangibility	0.456^**			-0.023^*
Growth	0.584^***	0.048	1.770^***	0.063^***
Leverage	0.018	1.806^***	-1.169^**	0.002
MB		0.022
Working capital		0.827^**
Constant	-2.914^***	-3.103^***	-1.043	-0.089^***
Year	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	990	1038	616	1187
Groups	165	172	121	187
Instruments	31	33	47	47
AR (1) p-value	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.010
AR (2) p-value	0.247	0.356	0.059	0.153
Hansen J Test p-value	0.382	0.111	0.172	0.179
Difference-in-Hansen:
Excluding Group	0.502	0.081	0.097	0.251
Difference (null H = exogenous)	0.109	0.912	0.711	0.188
Wald Chi-Squared Test	21578.07	2286.11	7062.26	525.92
Wald Test p-value	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

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E-mail: revista.adm@mackenzie.br

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[1] Marcelly Nóbrega de Medeiros is now an assistant professor at the Business Department of Potiguar University; Márcio André Veras Machado is now an associate professor at the Management Department of Federal University of Paraíba.