Party cues in Brazil? A crucial test on the ability of the Brazilian party system to influence public opinion

Abstract

This article presents a crucial test for the theory of party cues by investigating the association between the legislative positions of the Brazilian political party system in a government-opposition dimension and the governmental assessment made by their supporters. The context of the test is the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government (1995-2002), characterized by successive economic crises, which would tend to reduce the parties’ influence over public opinion, in face of the traditional explanatory power of theories of economic voting and VP-functions. The results, based on multilevel models built upon seven surveys, suggest that party cues work even in a country like Brazil and in the adverse context chosen for this empirical test. The findings also indicate that party cues were stronger according to the media relevance of each political party.

party cues; government approval; media; economic voting; VP-functions; multilevel analysis