Homicide: mortality and years of potential life lost

This is a time series study for homicide constructed from the Mortality Information System. Years of potential life lost were estimated according to age group, sex and cause of death, and mortality rates were calculated. Trend analysis was verified by Prais-Winsten regression with calculation of annual percentage change.

Results

The South had a 14.5% increase in homicide mortality rates in the historical series, with emphasis on young adults (20 to 29 years) and the male population as the main victims of homicides and with greater years of potential life lost. The highest homicide rates were recorded in Paraná, with a stationary trend (APC= 0.10%; 95%CI= -1.23; 1.65; p= 0.875). In Rio Grande do Sul, there was a growing trend with an increase of 25.0% (APC=0.90%CI95%=0.49; 1.32; p<0.001). In Santa Catarina, there was a growing trend with an increase of 20.8% (APC= 0.70%; 95%CI= 0.09; 1.32, p<0.001). Regarding sex, there was a higher prevalence of males in Rio Grande do Sul with 27.7% (APC= 0.90%; 95%CI= 0.49; 1.32, p<0.001) and females in Santa Catarina with 17.4% (APC=0.70%; 95%CI=0.50; 0.91, p<0.001).

Conclusion

The trend was towards an increase in homicides in the southern states, with a predominance of homicides among young adults and the greater loss of years of life among males represents important socioeconomic issues for a preventable cause.

Homicide; Mortality; Potential years of life lost; Mortality registries

Year	Paraná				Santa Catarina				Rio Grande do Sul				South region
Year	Total	M	F	M/F	Total	M	F	M/F	Total	M	F	M/F	Total	M	F	M/F
1996	16.5	29.6	3.6	8.3	9.1	15.4	2.9	5.3	16.7	29.5	4.2	7.0	15.1	26.6	3.7	7.2
1997	18.2	34.1	3.6	9.4	9.2	16.4	2.1	7.9	18.2	32.8	4.0	8.3	16.5	29.9	3.4	8.7
1998	17.9	33.3	4.0	8.4	9.0	15.3	2.8	5.5	16.6	29.8	3.7	8.0	15.7	28.1	3.6	7.8
1999	18.9	35.3	4.1	8.7	8.1	14.2	2.1	6.8	16.4	30.0	3.3	9.1	15.9	28.7	3.3	8.6
2000	18.6	35.7	3.4	10.4	8.6	15.3	2.0	7.6	17.5	31.9	3.5	9.2	16.3	29.8	3.1	9.5
2001	21.2	40.3	4.1	9.7	9.4	16.4	2.3	7.0	19.3	35.5	3.5	10.0	18.2	33.3	3.5	9.4
2002	22.8	44.3	4.0	11.0	11.4	20.1	2.8	7.1	19.7	36.0	3.9	9.3	19.5	35.8	3.7	9.7
2003	25.6	49.5	4.7	10.6	12.9	23.3	2.5	9.3	19.3	35.9	3.3	11.0	20.8	38.4	3.6	10.6
2004	27.7	53.7	5.0	10.7	12.0	21.1	3.0	7.2	19.9	36.5	3.8	9.6	21.7	39.8	4.1	9.7
2005	28.4	56.0	4.6	12.1	11.7	20.8	2.6	8.1	19.9	36.4	3.8	9.5	22.0	40.5	3.9	10.5
2006	29.5	57.8	4.9	11.8	12.0	21.0	3.2	6.7	19.4	36.3	3.0	12.2	22.2	41.2	3.8	10.9
2007	28.6	56.6	4.5	12.4	11.0	19.7	2.3	8.6	20.7	38.2	3.5	11.0	22.2	41.2	3.6	11.4
2008	31.5	61.5	5.7	10.9	13.8	24.8	2.9	8.5	22.9	42.0	4.1	10.1	25.0	45.8	4.5	10.3
2009	33.4	64.6	6.2	10.4	14.1	25.0	3.2	7.8	21.4	38.8	4.2	9.2	25.1	45.7	4.8	9.6
2010	33.5	64.6	6.4	10.0	13.7	23.9	3.5	6.8	20.1	36.5	4.2	8.7	24.4	44.3	4.9	9.0
2011	30.6	59.7	5.3	11.3	13.3	24.2	2.5	9.9	20.1	36.8	3.8	9.6	23.1	42.6	4.1	10.5
2012	31.7	61.4	6.2	10.0	13.2	23.0	3.3	7.0	23.1	42.0	4.7	8.9	24.7	44.9	4.9	9.1
2013	26.4	51.0	5.1	10.0	12.2	21.3	3.1	6.9	22.1	40.8	3.8	10.8	21.9	40.1	4.1	9.7
2014	26.9	51.6	5.3	9.8	13.3	23.2	3.3	7.1	26.2	48.3	4.6	10.6	23.9	43.6	4.5	9.6
2015	25.8	50.1	4.5	11.1	14.3	25.5	2.9	8.7	28.1	51.6	5.0	10.2	24.5	44.9	4.3	10.3
2016	27.0	53.0	4.3	12.4	14.9	26.5	3.3	8.1	30.9	56.6	5.7	10.0	26.1	48.0	4.6	10.5
2017	24.0	46.1	4.5	10.2	16.0	28.6	3.3	8.6	31.7	58.3	5.6	10.4	25.5	46.5	4.6	10.0
2018	20.8	39.7	3.8	10.5	12.1	21.3	2.8	7.7	25.7	47.1	4.8	9.9	20.9	38.1	3.9	9.7
2019	17.1	31.8	3.7	8.5	11.0	18.6	3.4	5.5	20.8	37.6	4.3	8.8	17.2	30.8	3.8	8.0

State/Region	b1	95%CI		APC%	95%CI		∆%1996/2007	∆%2008/2019	∆%1996/2019	Mean	R²	p-value	Trend
State/Region	b1	Low. lim	Up. lim	APC%	Low. lim	Up. lim	∆%1996/2007	∆%2008/2019	∆%1996/2019	Mean	R²	p-value	Trend
Paraná
Male	0.002	-0.012	0.016	0.20	-1.23	1.65	90.9	-48.3	7.2	48.4	0.002	0.826	Stationary
Female	0.003	-0.005	0.011	0.30	-0.52	1.13	27.3	-34.1	4.3	3.6	0.018	0.544	Stationary
Total	0.001	-0.013	0.015	0.10	-1.33	1.55	73.6	-45.7	3.8	25.1	0.001	0.875	Stationary
Santa Catarina
Male	0.005	0.002	0.014	0.80	0.19	1.43	27.7	-24.9	20.8	21.0	0.257	0.013	Upward
Female	0.008	0.005	0.009	0.70	0.50	0.91	-20.4	16.5	17.4	2.8	0.566	<0.001	Upward
Total	0.007	0.001	0.013	0.70	0.09	1.32	19.9	-20.2	20.8	11.9	0.284	0.009	Upward
Rio Grande do Sul
Male	0.009	0.005	0.013	0.90	0.49	1.32	29.6	-10.4	27.7	39.4	0.493	<0.001	Upward
Female	0.006	0.002	0.010	0.60	0.19	1.02	-18.0	3.0	0.8	4.1	0.247	0.016	Upward
Total	0.009	0.005	0.013	0.90	0.49	1.32	24.0	-9.1	25.0	21.5	0.487	<0.001	Upward
South region
Male	0.006	0.000	0.012	0.60	-0.01	1.22	54.6	-32.8	15.5	38.7	0.133	0.087	Stationary
Female	0.007	0.005	0.009	0.70	0.50	0.91	-2.5	-13.8	3.2	4.0	0.579	<0.001	Upward
Total	0.005	-0.001	0.011	0.50	-0.11	1.12	47.7	-30.9	14.5	21.2	0.140	0.079	Stationary

Age group	Paraná					Santa Catarina					Rio Grande do Sul					South region
	1996		2019		YPLL ∆% 2019/1996	1996		2019		YPLL ∆% 2019/1996	1996		2019		YPLL ∆% 2019/1996	1996		2019		YPLL ∆% 2019/1996
	YPLL	%	YPLL	%	YPLL ∆% 2019/1996	YPLL	%	YPLL	%	YPLL ∆% 2019/1996	YPLL	%	YPLL	%	YPLL ∆% 2019/1996	YPLL	%	YPLL	%	YPLL ∆% 2019/1996
Male
01 to 09 years	193.5	0.4	258	0.4	33.3	258	2.1	64.5	0.3	-75.0	451.5	1.0	387	0.6	-14.3	903	0.9	709.5	0.5	-21.4
10 to 19 years	8580	19.2	8745	14.6	1.9	2200	18.1	4015	18.6	82.5	9185	19.6	14520	20.8	58.1	19965	19.3	27280	18.0	36.6
20 to 29 years	20295	45.3	26730	44.7	31.7	5175	42.6	8640	39.9	67.0	19440	41.6	29340	42.1	50.9	44910	43.3	64710	42.8	44.1
30 to 39 years	10150	22.7	15750	26.3	55.2	2835	23.3	5320	24.6	87.7	11130	23.8	16135	23.1	45.0	24115	23.3	37205	24.6	54.3
40 to 49 years	4200	9.4	5900	9.9	40.5	1175	9.7	2650	12.2	125.5	4775	10.2	6700	9.6	40.3	10150	9.8	15250	10.1	50.2
50 to 59 years	1155	2.6	2175	3.6	88.3	450	3.7	780	3.6	73.3	1590	3.4	2340	3.4	47.2	3195	3.1	5295	3.5	65.7
60 to 69 years	200	0.4	270	0.5	35.0	55	0.5	165	0.8	200.0	185	0.4	330	0.5	78.4	440	0.4	765	0.5	73.9
Female
01 to 09 years	193.5	3.3	387	5.5	100.0	193.5	7.6	193.5	4.9	0.0	387	5.3	193.5	2.5	-50.0	774	4.9	774	4.2	0.0
10 to 19 years	1320	22.4	825	11.8	-37.5	770	30.3	825	20.9	7.1	1815	24.9	1485	19.3	-18.2	3905	24.8	3135	16.8	-19.7
20 to 29 years	2790	47.4	2520	36.1	-9.7	675	26.6	1530	38.7	126.7	2610	35.8	3015	39.1	15.5	6075	38.6	7065	37.9	16.3
30 to 39 years	875	14.9	1995	28.6	128.0	595	23.4	665	16.8	11.8	1435	19.7	1715	22.2	19.5	2905	18.5	4375	23.5	50.6
40 to 49 years	525	8.9	925	13.3	76.2	225	8.9	575	14.6	155.6	825	11.3	800	10.4	-3.0	1575	10.0	2300	12.3	46.0
50 to 59 years	180	3.1	285	4.1	58.3	75	3.0	135	3.4	80.0	195	2.7	450	5.8	130.8	450	2.9	870	4.7	93.3
60 to 69 years	5	0.1	40	0.6	700.0	5	0.2	25	0.6	400.0	25	0.3	55	0.7	120.0	35	0.2	120	0.6	242.9
Total
01 to 09 years	387	0.8	645	1.0	66.7	451.5	3.1	258	1.0	-42.9	838.5	1.6	580.5	0.7	-30.8	1677	1.4	1484	0.9	-11.5
10 to 19 years	9900	19.5	9570	14.3	-3.3	2970	20.2	4840	18.9	63.0	11000	20.4	16005	20.7	45.5	23870	20.0	30415	17.9	27.4
20 to 29 years	23085	45.6	29250	43.8	26.7	5850	39.8	10170	39.8	73.8	22050	40.8	32355	41.8	46.7	50985	42.7	71775	42.3	40.8
30 to 39 years	11025	21.8	17745	26.6	61.0	3430	23.4	5985	23.4	74.5	12565	23.2	17850	23.0	42.1	27020	22.6	41580	24.5	53.9
40 to 49 years	4725	9.3	6825	10.2	44.4	1400	9.5	3225	12.6	130.4	5600	10.4	7500	9.7	33.9	11725	9.8	17550	10.3	49.7
50 to 59 years	1335	2.6	2460	3.7	84.3	525	3.6	915	3.6	74.3	1785	3.3	2790	3.6	56.3	3645	3.1	6165	3.6	69.1
60 to 69 years	205	0.4	310	0.5	51.2	60	0.4	190	0.7	216.7	210	0.4	385	0.5	83.3	475	0.4	885	0.5	86.3

Cause of death	Paraná
	1996		2019		YPLL
	%	YPLL	%	YPLL	∆%2019/1996
Handgun discharge	58.1	30744.5	63.3	44394	44.4
Blunt object	6.4	2754.5	5.3	3065	11.3
Sharp object	24.8	12035	21.4	13134.5	9.1
Other means	10.7	5128	10.1	6211.5	21.1
Total	100.0	50662	100.0	66805	31.9
Cause of death	Santa Catarina
	1996		2019		YPLL
	%	YPLL	%	YPLL	∆%2019/1996
Handgun discharge	53.6	8129	52.3	14779	81.8
Blunt object	6.6	879.5	10.5	2119.5	141.0
Sharp object	24.5	3510	25.3	6075	73.1
Other means	15.3	2168	11.9	2639.5	21.7
Total	100.0	14686.5	100.0	25613	74.4
Cause of death	Rio Grande do Sul
	1996		2019		YPLL
	%	YPLL	%	YPLL	∆%2019/1996
Handgun discharge	67.9	37633.5	75.4	60889.5	61.8
Blunt object	1.8	729.5	4.4	2710	271.5
Sharp object	17.9	9493	14.4	9754	2.7
Other means	12.4	6192.5	5.8	4112	-33.6
Total	100.0	54048.5	100.0	77465.5	43.3
Cause of death	South region
	1996		2019		YPLL
	%	YPLL	%	YPLL	∆%2019/1996
Handgun discharge	62.0	76507	67.1	120062.5	56.9
Blunt object	4.3	4363.5	5.6	7864.5	80.2
Sharp object	21.6	25038	18.9	28963.5	15.7
Other means	12.0	13488.5	8.4	12963	-3.9
Total	100.0	119397	100.0	169853.5	42.3

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[1] Corresponding author: Ludmila Mourão Xavier Gomes E-mail: ludyxavier@yahoo.com.br