No impact of rural development policies? No synergies with CCTs? The IFAD-supported Gavião Project in Brazil

Costa, Lorena Vieira; Helfand, Steven M.; Souza, André Portela de

doi:10.1590/1806-9479.2022.268158

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Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

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Article • Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural 61 (4) • 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.268158 copy

No impact of rural development policies? No synergies with CCTs? The IFAD-supported Gavião Project in Brazil

Ausência de impactos de projetos de desenvolvimento rural? Ausência de sinergias com CCTs? O Pró-Gavião no Brasil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

We estimate the impacts of an IFAD-supported rural development project (Pro-Gavião). Because public policies are frequently implemented simultaneously rather than in isolation, we also estimate the impacts of—and possible synergies with—the Brazilian conditional cash transfer (CCT) program Bolsa Família. Developed jointly by IFAD and the State Government of Bahia, Pro-Gavião was a rural development project in 13 contiguous municipalities between 1997 and 2005. Census tract level data were extracted for the analysis from the 1995-96 and 2006 Agricultural Censuses. The evaluation uses propensity score matching to construct a control group of untreated census tracts, and a difference-in-differences estimation to identify impacts. The outcomes analyzed include land productivity, agricultural income and child labor. Although Pro-Gavião involved significant investments in the region, the results suggest little if any program impact, or synergies between the two programs. The unexpected null findings are robust to alternative approaches to identifying the treated census tracts, matching techniques, and heterogeneity in several dimensions. We show that the lack of impacts is not driven by adverse rainfall in the treated communities, or the influence of other programs in the control communities. Alternative explanations for the null results are explored.

Keywords:
rural development projects; conditional cash transfers; IFAD; synergies; Brazil

	Treated AMCs		Non-treated AMCs (non-neighbors)
N	99		288		p-value
	Mean	SE	Mean	SE	p-value
Number of establishments	182.84	188.38	185.43	180.03	0.90
Farm size	17.02	4.71	13.34	4.80	0.00***
Land productivity	130.09	88.77	272.32	461.46	0.00***
Income per adult	553.65	393.74	748.14	1200.17	0.11
Child labor (share)	0.30	0.21	0.26	0.19	0.06*
Access to credit (share)	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.02**
Investments	241.71	322.66	275.78	1120.96	0.77
Electricity (share)	0.15	0.19	0.13	0.20	0.39
Value of output per estab.	2082.26	1275.83	3755.94	10274.43	0.11
Expenditure per estab.	437.55	305.23	1122.55	3152.46	0.03**
Livestock production (share)	0.44	0.17	0.34	0.21	0.00***
Vegetable production (share)	0.41	0.16	0.49	0.22	0.00***
Vegetable extraction (share)	0.11	0.10	0.04	0.09	0.00***
Permanent crops (share)	0.02	0.05	0.08	0.18	0.00***
Temporary crops (share)	0.28	0.12	0.36	0.21	0.00***
Technical assistance (share)	0.03	0.11	0.05	0.12	0.22
Cooperatives (share)	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.07	0.06*
Animal traction (share)	0.39	0.37	0.54	0.35	0.00***
Mechanical traction (share)	0.04	0.07	0.16	0.25	0.00***
Irrigation (share)	0.02	0.04	0.09	0.18	0.00***
Poverty Incidence (share)	0.89	0.11	0.87	0.13	0.05**
Extreme poverty incidence (share)	0.77	0.17	0.75	0.17	0.21
Poverty gap	0.70	0.15	0.68	0.16	0.46
Extreme poverty gap	0.55	0.18	0.55	0.18	0.93

	Land Productivity		Income per adult		Child labor
	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
Pró-Gavião	0.16	0.30	0.001	0.22	10.41	10.70
	(0.28)	(0.28)	(0.38)	(0.38)	(9.73)	(9.19)
Social programs incidence	-0.001	0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.13	0.10
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.01)	(0.01)	0.17	(0.17)
Interaction between the programs	-0.01	-0.01	-0.003	-0.01	-0.22	-0.19
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Agricultural controls	N	Y	N	Y	N	Y
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.00	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.19	0.17
N	426	426	388	388	426	426

	Land Productivity			Income per adult			Child labor
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pro-Gavião	0.26	0.26	0.04	0.09	0.19	-0.47	12.84	10.36	21.33
	(0.30)	(0.30)	(0.30)	(0.40)	(0.41)	(0.40)	(9.86)	(9.78)	(9.99)
PG*technical assistance above the median	-0.21	-	-	-0.21	-	-	-5.66	-	-
	(0.17)			(0.25)			(5.37)
PG*infrastructure and construction above the median	-	-0.25	-	-	-0.49*	-	-	0.14	-
		(0.16)			(0.25)			(5.34)
Pro-Gavião* extreme poverty above the median			0.24			0.85***			-20.96***
			(0.18)			(0.24)			(4.70)
Social programs incidence	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.13	0.13	0.13
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.18)
Interaction between the programs	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.22	-0.22	-0.24
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.23)
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.03	0.03	426	0.07	0.09	0.14	0.42	0.41	0.47
N	426	426	0.04	388	388	388	426	426	426

	Land Productivity	Income per adult	Child labor
Panel A: Exact coordinates
Pro-Gavião	-0.05	-0.65**	4.96
	(0.27)	(0.32)	(5.92)
Social programs incidence	0.00	-0.01**	-0.01
	(0.004)	(0.01)	(0.12)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.01	-0.06
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.15)
N	396	359	396

Panel B: Kernel matching
Pro-Gavião	-0.05	-0.22	11.64
	(0.27)	(0.38)	(8.35)
Social programs incidence	0.00	-0.01*	0.18
	(0.004)	(0.01)	(0.13)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.00	-0.26
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.21)
N	768	704	768

Panel C: IBGE AMCs
Pro-Gavião	-0.09	-0.41	9.85
	(0.23)	(0.33)	(6.41)
Social programs incidence	0.00	-0.01**	0.11
	(0.003)	(0.01)	(0.12)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.01	-0.31*
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.18)
N	576	517	576

Time dummy	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y

		Land Productivity	Income per adult	Child labor
Panel a: Main model
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.16	0.00	10.41
	P-value	0.13	0.95	0.00
Panel b: Heterogenous effects by initial level of extreme poverty
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.04	-0.47	21.33**
	P-value	0.82	0.04	0.00
PG*extreme poverty above the median	Coeficient	0.24	0.85***	-20.96***
	P-value	0.22	0.01	0.00
Panel c: PG intensity (technical assistance)
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.26	0.09	12.84
	P-value	0.10	0.69	0.01
PG*technical assistance above the median	Coeficient	-0.21	-0.21	-5.66
	P-value	0.23	0.39	0.26
Panel d: PG intensity (construction of infrastructure)
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.26	0.19	10.36
	P-value	0.10	0.42	0.02
PG*infrastructure above the median	Coeficient	-0.25	-0.49*	0.14
	P-value	0.10	0.02	0.97

Variables
Farm size	0.057***
	(0.020)
Land productivity	-0.002**
	(0.001)
Access to credit (share)	-16.686
	(14.681)
Investments per establishment	0.001***
	(0.0002)
Livestock production (share)	1.575***
	(0.499)
Vegetable extraction (share)	3.384***
	(0.810)
Permanent crops (share)	-0.926
	(1.277)
Technical assistance (share)	-0.219
	(0.882)
Cooperatives (share)	2.697
	(2.229)
Electricity (share)	1.674***
	(0.470)
Mechanical traction (share)	-3.628***
	(1.183)
Irrigation (share)	-4.595***
	(1.704)
Extreme poverty gap	-1.690***
	(0.602)
Constant	-0.962
	(0.691)
N	387
LR chi2	144.870
Prob>chi2	0.000
Pseudo R2	0.329

	Mean		% bias	% reduction
Variables	Treated	Controls		\bias\	p-value
Farm size	16.92	16.94	-0.30	99.60	0.98
Land productivity	130.51	132.74	-0.70	98.40	0.86
Access to credit (share)	0.00	0.00	-1.60	95.00	0.54
Investments per establishment	237.10	211.69	3.10	25.40	0.55
Livestock production (share)	0.44	0.41	19.50	64.60	0.14
Vegetable extraction (share)	0.11	0.13	-21.50	72.20	0.34
Permanent crops (share)	0.02	0.01	4.50	90.40	0.37
Technical assistance (share)	0.03	0.02	13.10	12.10	0.26
Cooperatives (share)	0.01	0.01	6.20	74.90	0.50
Electricity (share)	0.14	0.15	-8.00	20.70	0.60
Mechanical traction (share)	0.04	0.05	-7.30	88.40	0.21
Irrigation (share)	0.02	0.01	2.40	95.50	0.57
Extreme poverty gap	0.55	0.54	6.70	-523.40	0.65
Rubin's R Unmatched	0.1
Matched	1.04

	Investment		Access to credit		Access to electricity
	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
Pró-Gavião	-0.13	0.19	0.15	0.12	-6.75	-11.27
	(0.84)	(0.80)	(2.69)	(2.51)	(9.67)	(8.37)
Social programs incidence	-0.01	-0.01	0.21***	0.15***	-0.09	-0.29*
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.06)	(0.05)	(0.17)	(0.15)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.03	0.43*	0.55**
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.24)	(0.22)
Agricultural controls	N	Y	N	Y	N	Y
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.11	0.10	0.67	0.68	0.54	0.48
N	299	299	426	426	426	426

	Investment			Credit			Electricity
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pro-Gavião	-0.29	-0.13	-0.14	-0.18	1.00	0.28	-8.45	-9.61	-8.85
	(0.85)	(0.84)	(0.85)	(2.72)	(2.72)	(2.67)	(10.05)	(9.72)	(9.91)
PG*technical assistance above the median	0.66*	-		0.76	-		3.97	-
	(0.33)			(1.58)			(5.25)
PG*infrastructure and construction above the median	-	0.21		-	-2.27		-	7.56
		(0.35)			(1.60)			(5.32)
Pro-Gavião* extreme poverty above the median			0.06			-0.27			4.03
			(0.35)			(1.52)			(5.14)
Social programs incidence	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.21***	0.21***	0.21***	-0.09	-0.09	-0.09
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)
Interaction between the programs	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.43*	0.43*	0.43*
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.19	0.17	0.17	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.76	0.76	0.76
N	299	299	299	426	426	426	426	426	426

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[1] Note: All monetary values are in Reais of 2006 (R$ 1 = US$0.43). *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.