Pires, Manoel; Borges, Bráulio

doi:10.1590/0101-41614921mpb

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Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)

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Artigo de Pesquisa • Estud. Econ. 49 (2) • Apr-Jun 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41614921mpb copy

A Despesa Primária do Governo Central: estimativas e determinantes no período 1986-2016^♦ ♦ Agradecemos os comentários e sugestões recebidos em seminários realizados no IBRE/FGV. No entanto, erros e omissões são de responsabilidade dos autores.

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Federal Government primary expenditures growth in Brazil during the process of democratization has been assigned mainly to 1988 Federal Constitution. This paper presents new estimations of primary expenditure beginning in 1986 and presents growth decomposition between Constitutional and non-Constitutional factors. The results show that expenditures would have been stable without the non-Constitutional factors that created new financial obligations.

Keywords
Primary expenditures; Federal Constitution; Social Security

	STN		BCB		Giambiagi e Além
	Pessoal	Custeio^* * Acrescido da rubrica "outras vinculações".	Pessoal	Custeio^* * Acrescido da rubrica "outras vinculações".	Pessoal	Custeio^* * Acrescido da rubrica "outras vinculações".
1990	5,0%	2,9%	5,0%	2,9%	ND	ND
1991	3,4%	3,5%	3,4%	3,5%	ND	ND
1992	3,6%	2,5%	3,6%	2,5%	ND	ND
1993	4,2%	4,0%	4,2%	4,0%	ND	ND
1994	ND	ND	5,1%	3,5%	5,1%	4,0%
1995	5,0%	3,0%	5,1%	3,0%	5,1%	3,8%

	Consolidação	STN	Diferença
1986	12.7%	NA	NA
1987	13.0%	NA	NA
1988	12.7%	NA	NA
1989	11.9%	NA	NA
1990	11.5%	NA	NA
1991	10.7%	NA	NA
1992	10.6%	NA	NA
1993	13.5%	NA	NA
1994	14.0%	NA	NA
1995	13.1%	NA	NA
1996	13.2%	NA	NA
1997	14.0%	14.0%	0.0%
1998	14.8%	14.8%	0.0%
1999	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%
2000	14.8%	14.8%	0.0%
2001	15.6%	15.6%	0.0%
2002	15.7%	15.9%	-0.1%
2003	15.0%	15.1%	-0.1%
2004	15.5%	15.6%	-0.1%
2005	16.2%	16.4%	-0.2%
2006	16.6%	16.8%	-0.1%
2007	16.8%	16.9%	-0.1%
2008	16.1%	16.2%	0.0%
2009	17.4%	17.4%	0.0%
2010	17.1%	18.2%	-1.1%
2011	16.7%	16.8%	0.0%
2012	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%
2013	17.4%	17.3%	0.0%
2014	17.9%	18.1%	-0.2%
2015	17.9%	19.4%	-1.6%
2016	19.5%	20.0%	-0.5%

	Pessoal	Previdência	RMV, LOAS, BPC e Seguro D.	Subsídios	Custeio	Total
1991/1986	0.66	-0.22	0.23	-1.10	-2.34	-2.78
1996/1991	1.61	1.58	0.11	0.03	-0.11	3.23
2001/1996	-0.05	0.90	0.05	0.12	1.09	2.11
2006/2001	-0.20	1.39	0.23	0.06	0.14	1.62
2011/2006	-0.24	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0.83	0.32
2016/2011	-0.45	0.90	0.12	0.15	0.10	0.82

	Pessoal e Encargos (1)	Benefícios Previdenciários (2)	RMV LOAS e EPU (3)	Seguro Desemprego (4)	Custeio e Investimento (5=5.1+5.2)	Custeio (5.1)	Investimento (5.2)	Subsídios (6)	Total (1+2+3+4+5+6)
1986	2.5%	3.3%	0.32%	0.01%	5.3%	nd	nd	1.2%	12.7%
1987	3.5%	2.5%	0.29%	0.06%	4.6%	nd	nd	2.0%	13.0%
1988	4.3%	2.5%	0.29%	0.07%	4.7%	nd	nd	0.8%	12.7%
1989	4.4%	2.9%	0.28%	0.11%	3.7%	nd	nd	0.6%	11.9%
1990	5.0%	3.3%	0.27%	0.31%	2.6%	nd	nd	0.1%	11.5%
1991	3.4%	3.4%	0.29%	0.32%	3.2%	nd	nd	0.1%	10.7%
1992	3.6%	4.2%	0.27%	0.37%	2.1%	nd	nd	0.0%	10.6%
1993	4.2%	5.0%	0.20%	0.33%	3.7%	nd	nd	0.1%	13.5%
1994	5.1%	4.8%	0.38%	0.44%	3.1%	nd	nd	0.1%	14.0%
1995	5.1%	4.6%	0.31%	0.41%	2.6%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	13.1%
1996	4.8%	4.7%	0.29%	0.39%	2.9%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	13.2%
1997	4.2%	5.0%	0.33%	0.36%	3.9%	3.2%	0.7%	0.2%	14.0%
1998	4.5%	5.4%	0.34%	0.40%	4.1%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%	14.8%
1999	4.4%	5.4%	0.33%	0.35%	3.9%	3.4%	0.5%	0.2%	14.6%
2000	4.5%	5.5%	0.35%	0.34%	3.8%	3.1%	0.7%	0.2%	14.8%
2001	4.8%	5.7%	0.37%	0.37%	4.1%	3.3%	0.8%	0.3%	15.6%
2002	4.8%	5.9%	0.38%	0.38%	4.1%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%	15.7%
2003	4.5%	6.2%	0.39%	0.39%	3.3%	3.0%	0.3%	0.3%	15.0%
2004	4.3%	6.4%	0.42%	0.36%	3.8%	3.3%	0.5%	0.2%	15.5%
2005	4.3%	6.7%	0.46%	0.40%	3.9%	3.4%	0.5%	0.4%	16.2%
2006	4.4%	6.9%	0.51%	0.43%	4.1%	3.4%	0.6%	0.3%	16.6%
2007	4.3%	6.8%	0.55%	0.46%	4.4%	3.7%	0.7%	0.3%	16.8%
2008	4.3%	6.4%	0.55%	0.45%	4.3%	3.5%	0.8%	0.1%	16.1%
2009	4.6%	6.7%	0.60%	0.59%	4.7%	3.7%	1.0%	0.1%	17.4%
2010	4.3%	6.6%	0.61%	0.53%	4.9%	3.7%	1.2%	0.2%	17.1%
2011	4.1%	6.4%	0.61%	0.54%	4.8%	3.9%	1.0%	0.2%	16.7%
2012	3.9%	6.6%	0.64%	0.56%	5.0%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%	16.9%
2013	3.8%	6.7%	0.66%	0.60%	5.3%	4.4%	0.9%	0.2%	17.4%
2014	3.8%	6.8%	0.69%	0.61%	5.7%	4.7%	1.0%	0.3%	17.9%
2015	4.0%	7.3%	0.73%	0.64%	4.8%	4.1%	0.7%	0.5%	17.9%
2016	4.1%	8.1%	0.81%	0.60%	5.5%	4.7%	0.8%	0.4%	19.5%

	Pessoal e Encargos	Benefícios Previdenciários	RMV LOAS e EPU	Seguro Desemprego	Custeio e Investimento	Custeio (5.1)	investimento (5.2)	Subsídios	Total
1986	2.5%	3.3%	0.32%	0.01%	5.3%	nd	nd	1.2%	12.7%
1987	3.5%	2.5%	0.29%	0.06%	4.6%	nd	nd	2.0%	12.9%
1988	4.1%	2.4%	0.28%	0.06%	4.6%	nd	nd	0.8%	12.2%
1989	4.2%	2.8%	0.27%	0.11%	3.6%	nd	nd	0.6%	11.6%
1990	4.7%	3.0%	0.25%	0.29%	2.4%	nd	nd	0.1%	10.7%
1991	3.1%	3.1%	0.27%	0.29%	3.0%	nd	nd	0.1%	9.9%
1992	3.3%	3.8%	0.24%	0.34%	1.9%	nd	nd	0.0%	9.6%
1993	3.9%	4.7%	0.19%	0.31%	3.4%	nd	nd	0.1%	12.6%
1994	5.0%	4.7%	0.37%	0.43%	3.0%	nd	nd	0.1%	13.7%
1995	5.1%	4.6%	0.31%	0.41%	2.6%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	13.1%
1996	4.8%	4.7%	0.29%	0.38%	2.9%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	13.2%
1997	4.2%	4.9%	0.32%	0.36%	3.9%	3.2%	0.7%	0.2%	13.9%
1998	4.3%	5.2%	0.34%	0.39%	4.0%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%	14.5%
1999	4.3%	5.2%	0.32%	0.34%	3.8%	3.3%	0.5%	0.2%	14.0%
2000	4.5%	5.4%	0.34%	0.33%	3.8%	3.1%	0.7%	0.2%	14.5%
2001	4.7%	5.6%	0.36%	0.36%	4.0%	3.2%	0.8%	0.3%	15.3%
2002	4.7%	5.8%	0.38%	0.37%	4.0%	3.2%	0.8%	0.1%	15.5%
2003	4.4%	6.1%	0.39%	0.38%	3.2%	2.9%	0.3%	0.3%	14.7%
2004	4.4%	6.5%	0.42%	0.36%	3.8%	3.3%	0.5%	0.2%	15.7%
2005	4.3%	6.8%	0.47%	0.41%	3.9%	3.4%	0.5%	0.4%	16.4%
2006	4.5%	7.0%	0.52%	0.43%	4.1%	3.5%	0.6%	0.3%	16.9%
2007	4.5%	7.1%	0.57%	0.48%	4.5%	3.8%	0.7%	0.3%	17.4%
2008	4.4%	6.7%	0.57%	0.47%	4.5%	3.6%	0.8%	0.1%	16.7%
2009	4.6%	6.7%	0.59%	0.58%	4.7%	3.7%	1.0%	0.1%	17.2%
2010	4.4%	6.7%	0.62%	0.55%	5.0%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%	17.6%
2011	4.3%	6.6%	0.62%	0.56%	5.0%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%	17.2%
2012	4.0%	6.7%	0.65%	0.57%	5.1%	4.1%	1.0%	0.2%	17.2%
2013	3.9%	6.9%	0.68%	0.62%	5.4%	4.6%	0.9%	0.3%	17.8%
2014	3.9%	6.9%	0.70%	0.62%	5.7%	4.8%	1.0%	0.3%	18.1%
2015	3.8%	7.0%	0.71%	0.62%	4.6%	3.9%	0.6%	0.5%	17.2%
2016	3.8%	7.5%	0.75%	0.56%	5.1%	4.3%	0.8%	0.3%	18.0%

Departamento de Economia; Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária da Universidade de São Paulo (FEA-USP) Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908 - FEA 01 - Cid. Universitária, CEP: 05508-010 - São Paulo/SP - Brasil, Tel.: (55 11) 3091-5803/5947 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: estudoseconomicos@usp.br

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A Despesa Primária do Governo Central: estimativas e determinantes no período 1986-2016♦ ♦ Agradecemos os comentários e sugestões recebidos em seminários realizados no IBRE/FGV. No entanto, erros e omissões são de responsabilidade dos autores.

Abstract

A Despesa Primária do Governo Central: estimativas e determinantes no período 1986-2016^♦ ♦ Agradecemos os comentários e sugestões recebidos em seminários realizados no IBRE/FGV. No entanto, erros e omissões são de responsabilidade dos autores.