THE AMAZON is entering an era of rapid changes as new transportation corridors traverse the region, stimulating the expansion of logging and agricultural frontiers. The declining cost of transportation has important implications for biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and the long-term prosperity of the Amazon society. To analyze this context, we have developed an empirically based, policy-sensitive model of deforestation for the Amazon basin. Model output for the worst-case scenario shows that, by 2050, projected deforestation trends will eliminate 40% of the current 5.4 million km² of Amazon forests, releasing approximately 32 Pg (10(9) tons) of carbon to the atmosphere. Results from intermediate-case scenarios indicate that, although an expanded and enforced network of protected areas could avoid as much as one third of projected forest losses, other conservation measures are still required to maintain the functional integrity of Amazon landscapes and watersheds. Current experiments in forest conservation on private properties, markets for ecosystem services, and agro-ecological zoning must be refined and implemented to achieve comprehensive conservation.
Scenarios; simulation; modeling; deforestation; Amazon
