Resumo em Inglês:

Focusing on changes in agricultural policy, this paper examines the economic impacts on MERCOSUL member country economies arising from the creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and a free trade area between MERCOSUL and the European Union (MERCOEURO). Four simulations are run using the Global Trade Analysis Project’s (GTAP) applied general equilibrium model. The results suggest these new trade alliances would cause an increase in MERCOSUL agribusiness production and a decrease in MERCOSUL manufactures production. In all simulations, agricultural trade flows are greatly altered and the exportation of MERCOSUL agribusiness products expands. However, the MERCOSUL countries experience overall economic growth in only the MERCOEURO scenarios. The elimination of agriculture production and export subsidies by members of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and European Union (E.U.) would have strong economic impacts on the economies of MERCOSUL countries.

Resumo em Inglês:

The objective of this research is to identify the component of trade that results specifically from bilateral relations and evaluate how the creation of trading blocs affects trade relations between countries. The trirapport coefficient of the relative intensity of bilateral agricultural sector trade flows between Brazil and other countries from 1984 and 1998 is used in the evaluation. In general, the results show that relative trade intensity between Brazil and its non-MERCOSUL trade partners fell after their entry into regional trade agreements (extra-bloc effect). The intra-bloc effect (trade expansion) is reflected by changes in trade intensity between Brazil and the other MERCOSUL members and changes in trade intensity between NAFTA members Mexico, Canada, and the United States.

Resumo em Inglês:

The growth of non-agricultural activity since the 1980s has reconfigured the economic and social dynamic in Brazil’s rural areas. Our paper intends to describe the impact of this growth on income distribution in rural Brazil. We made use of a method of decomposition of two indicators of income distribution applied to1992 and 1999 Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) data: the variation coefficient and the Gini index. It was observed that non-agricultural activities have increased the concentration of rural income and that this phenomenon is more prominent in Region I (states of Brazil’s Northeast and the state of Tocantins) and Region IV (states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul and the Distrito Federal). It was found that the income concentrating effect of each non-agricultural activity branch (commerce, transformation industry, administration, service) differed by region. In Region I, income from the "Social/Public Administration and Other Activities branch " (a PNAD designation) presents a coefficient of relative concentration greater than a unit, which indicates that income from this activities branch acts to increase the concentration of non-agricultural income in this region. In Region IV, income from industrial activities and from Social/ Public Administration and Other Activities both present coefficients of relative concentration greater than a unit; therefore, both branches act to increase the concentration of income from non-agricultural activities in this region.

Resumo em Inglês:

This article analyzes the effectiveness of hedging Brazilian soy oil, soy meal, and soybeans in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and in the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&F) to reduce the risk of financial loss due to commodity price fluctuations. The econometric results show that a cross-hedging strategy using the BM&F soybean futures contract is an instrument of low effectiveness for managing soy oil and soy meal price risk. Despite low effectiveness, the estimates demonstrate total advantage for soy meal hedging operations using CBOT soy meal futures contracts rather than cross-hedging using BM&F soybean futures contracts. With some exceptions, the results are also more favorable for hedging soy oil with soy oil futures contracts at the CBOT rather than cross hedging with soybeans at the BM&F. Conversely, Brazilian traders hedging soybeans receive more effective risk protection by trading soybean futures contracts at the BM&F than by trading soybean futures contracts at the CBOT.

Resumo em Inglês:

A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L) on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%). In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.