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Technology cycles and the evolution of the knowledge base complexity since the 1980s

Abstract

Knowledge bases are complex systems of integrated technological knowledge that represent solutions to specific problems for the state of the art of knowledge in a given period. Knowledge bases evolve with technological cycles. In the last 30 years, we identify two technological waves. The first one started with the seven technological paradigms in the 1980s (microelectronics, computers, telecommunications, audiovisual, new materials, semiconductors and biotechnology); the second one initiated with the so-called Key Enabling Technologies (KETs - nanotechnology, micro and nanoelectronics, industrial biotechnology, photonics, advanced materials and advanced manufacturing) from the 2000. This paper analyzes the evolution of the properties and complexity of the world knowledge base over 1978-2016. Using patent data and network analysis, the work calculates indicators for variety, coherence, cognitive distance and convergence of the knowledge base. The results confirm that the technological paradigms of the 1980s are associated with an increase in the diversification and complexity of the knowledge base through an outward convergence, that is, with not related technologies - inside the same paradigm. The arrival of the 2000 micro-paradigms reveals a retraction of the knowledge base that evolves towards more concentrated paths over the trajectories previously established.

Keywords:
Innovation; knowledge base; Technological paradigms; Convergence; Networks

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