Factors associated with dropout rates in public secondary education in Minas Gerais

Soares, Tufi Machado; Fernandes, Neimar da Silva; Nóbrega, Mariana Calife; Nicolella, Alexandre C.

doi:10.1590/S1517-9702201507138589

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Article • Educ. Pesqui. 41 (3) • Jul-Sep 2015 • https://doi.org/10.1590/S1517-9702201507138589 copy

Factors associated with dropout rates in public secondary education in Minas Gerais^l I - The authors thank Instituto Unibanco for project funding, and Capes and CNPq, which partially funded this study through project Rede Multinível de Pesquisa em Eficácia Escolar - Casadinho/Procad, and the support of Minas Gerais State Department and Centro de Avaliação de Políticas Públicas em Educação (CAEd).

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

This paper's aim was to identify the main factors influencing secondary education dropout. The data are based on a historical series developed by the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) and a large survey conducted in Minas Gerais, Brazil, which collected diverse information from 3,418 interviewees (including students and dropouts). Cox proportional hazards regression models were estimated to identify potential correlations between intra and extra-school factors and early dropout. Another model used PNAD database, for which a Logit model was estimated, to verify non-dropout rates in high schools in Minas Gerais. Some significant factors are highlighted in the results explaining dropout, such as: difficulties faced with subjects, desire for a different school, perception of better job opportunities if studies are completed, and importance assigned to school choice.

Dropout rates; Secondary education; PSAE; PNAD

Factor	Description
Socioeconomic Index (ISE)	Refers to the respondent's socioeconomic status and is established using questions that measure the possession of goods (cultural or comfort items), taking into account whether the family receives Bolsa Família (conditional cash transfer).
School's perceived quality	Refers to the student's perception concerning the school's quality of education and the teachers' work, attendance in vocational practical classes, encouragement provided by the school, and the importance of what is taught at school.
Interest of and encouragement provided by the family to studies	Refers to the interest showed by the family in the individual's school life, the extent to which parents demand good behavior, good grades, attendance and the encouragement provided.
General difficulty faced with the subjects' content	Refers to the level of difficulty the student faces in various subjects (math, biology, history, geography, Portuguese language, physics and chemistry).
Desire for a dynamic and innovative school	Refers to the student's desire for after-school activities, practical classes, a more frequent use of handouts, contextualization of school content, and a preparatory program for the job market.
Need to work to help the family	Addresses the reasons individuals started working and one of the options is “need to help the family”.
Intention to go to college	The students are asked what they intend to do when graduating from high school and one of the options is “to attend college”.
School is chosen because of its Quality and/or Affinity.	The students are asked the main reasons they opted for that specific high school.

Factor	Description
Number of siblings	Numbers of siblings
Older than 18 years old	Whether the individual is older than 18 years old
Age/grade gap	Grade the student is enrolled minus the grade in which s/he should be enrolled according to year of birth.
Occupation	Work situation: 1 if the individual has a job and 0 (zero) if not.
Mother's age	Mother's age
Mother's level of education	Mother's years of schooling
Fathers age	Father's age
Father's level of education	Father's years of schooling
Energy	Whether the household has electricity
Water filter	Whether the individual has a water filter at home
Working age	Whether the individual is 18 years old or older

Birth cohort	Ideal age/grade			Survey	year	(PNAD)

		2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
1987	Age	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
1987	Ideal grade	8^a	1^o	2^o	3^o	Sup.	Sup.	Sup.	Sup.
1988	Age	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
1988	Ideal grade	7^a	8^a	1^o	2^o	3^o	Sup.	Sup.	Sup.
1989	Age	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
1989	Ideal grade	6^a	7	8^a	1	2^o	3	Sup.	Sup.
1990	Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
1990	Ideal grade	5^a	6^a	7^a	8^a	1^o	2^o	3^o	Sup.
1991	Age	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
1991	Ideal grade	4^a	5^a	6^a	7^a	8^a	1^o	2^o	3^o
1992	Age	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1992	Ideal grade	3^a	4^a	5^a	6^a	7^a	8^a	1^o	2^o

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[1] Dr. Tufi Machado Soares has a PhD in mathematical theory of control and statistics from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro and a post-doctorate in statistics from UFRJ. He is an associate professor at the Department of Statistics and Graduate Program in Education. Coordinator of research of CAEd/UFJF – Center for Evaluation of Education Public Policy at the Federal University of Juiz de Fora.

Mariana Calife Nóbrega has an MSc in education from the Graduate Program in Education from the Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF) and is currently a research assistant at CAEd/UFJF.

Neimar da Silva Fernandes is an undergraduate student in electrical engineering at the Federal University at Juiz de Fora (UFJF) and a research assistant at CAEd/UFJF.

Alexandre Chibebe Nicolella has a PhD in applied economics and is a professor of economic theory at the School of Economics, Business and Administration and Accounting at Ribeirão Preto – FEA-RP/USP.