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Risk factors and spatiotemporal dynamics of papaya meleira in the far south of Bahia state

ABSTRACT

Papaya meleira is considered one of the major phytosanitary problems affecting papaya culture, but several aspects of its epidemiology are still unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the risk and the spatiotemporal pattern of meleira under the cultivation conditions in the far south region of Bahia State, Brazil. Logistic regression was used to identify the risk factors associated with the occurrence of meleira in the far south region of Bahia. For the spatial distribution study, the following analyses were applied: ordinary sequences; t-test (student’s) and isopath areas. The logistic regression results evidenced that the risk that an intercropped orchard, or intercropped with the coffee crop, can show meleira is greater than that in the absence of these factors. In general, meleira evolved slowly from the first to the sixth month of evaluation, showing an average of up to 17.2% infected plants in the sixth month and reaching up to 88% infected plants in the field at the end of the epidemic. Aggregation of diseased plants was observed in less than half of the evaluated areas. Analysis of isopath areas indicated a tendency for the epidemics to start from the edges of orchards and the presence of secondary and isolated foci of the disease.

Keywords
Papaya; PMeV; plant virosis; epidemiology

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