CBRN events management and the use of the Hysplit model: an integrative literature review

Pereira, Adriana Paula Macedo Ferreira; Rodrigues, Luiz Antonio da Costa; Santos, Elaine Alves dos; Cardoso, Telma Abdalla de Oliveira; Cohen, Simone Cynamon

doi:10.1590/0103-1104201912221

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REVIEW • Saúde debate 43 (122) • Jul-Sep 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-1104201912221 copy

CBRN events management and the use of the Hysplit model: an integrative literature review

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The potential risk of exposure of populations to Chemical, Biological, Radioactive and Nuclear agents (CBRN), either by intentional causes or not, is a matter of national security and demands a constant improvement in its management. The models of atmospheric dispersion have been gaining prominence as a tool to support the management of risks to CBRN agents. The objective of this research was to identify and evaluate studies that used the Hysplit model in the context of CBRN events. For this purpose, an integrative literature review of published articles was conducted between 2014 and 2018, from the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Lilacs databases. The analysis of the selected articles revealed the potential of the Hysplit model, as a mathematical model, to understand the transport, dispersion and deposition of CBRN threats released into the atmosphere. The data produced by the simulations generated by this code can reveal which areas will be potentially impacted in a given event or the region of origin of elements dispersed in the air. In addition, Hysplit can be aggregated as a decisions support tool in the different phases of CBRN event management.

KEYWORDS
Pollutants dispersion; Scattering radiation; Chemical accidents and events; Radioactive hazard release; Risk management

Reference (year)	Study site	Objectives	Hysplit use purpose
An et al. (2016)	South Korea	Evaluate the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material (cesium-137) according to local climatic conditions and emission conditions.	Analyze the characteristics of radioactive dispersion in the atmosphere.
Auxier, Auxier e Hall (2017)	United States	Review and compare the different codes that were developed to predict the consequences of chemical weapons.	Hysplit presents prediction capability of nuclear precipitation.
Chai, Draxler e Stein (2015)	United States; Canada and Europe	Determine if global monitoring networks can be used to quantify temporal variations of emissions from a known source site.	Assist in the creation of a transfer coefficient matrix (TCM) to test an inverse emission estimation system.
Felsberg et al. (2018)	Germany and France	Evaluate the ability to simulate kriptton-85 dispersion emitted by a nuclear fuel reprocessing power plant in northwestern France.	Simulate Kr-85 transport in Europe over three periods of time.
GeYang e Ou (2018)	China	Design a set of dynamic surveillance systems against chemical accidents structured from the internet of things, embracing the principles of speed, simplicity and reliability.	Quantitatively simulate the diffusion model of a particular type of air pollution from a chemical accident.
Katata et al. (2015)	Japan	Estimate detailed atmospheric releases during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident using a reverse estimation method that calculates radionuclide release rates by comparing air concentration measurements of a radionuclide or its ambient dose rate with those calculated by atmospheric and oceanic transport, dispersion and deposition models.	Compare the numerical simulations of three atmospheric dispersion models (Hysplit, MLDP0 and Name) with the observations using new source term estimates.
Leelossy et al. (2017)	Europe	To evaluate the performance of the online WRF-Chem Eulerian, Hysplit and Raptor Lagrangian models and to indicate uncertainties in a complex climate situation in Central Europe, on November 4, 2011.	Hysplit has been adopted as a reference model against the online WRF-Chem Eulerian and Raptor Lagrangian models for simulating radioactive plume dispersion and spatial distribution of I-131 in Central Europe.
Pirouzmand, Kowsar e Dehghani (2018)	Iran	Simulate the consequences of a blackout at the cooling station of the Bushehr-1 Nuclear Power Plant and the subsequent loss of large amounts of liquid used in this process.	Evaluate radionuclide dispersion and transport to a limited number of fission products released under a hypothetical accident.
Ramana, Nayyar e Schoeppner (2016)	India	Describe different chemical explosions and examine how such explosions could occur at the Kalpakkam Reprocessing Plant and discuss the results of a simulation of atmospheric dispersion, including a calculation of the potential radiation dose for the exposed population.	Calculate the radioactivity atmospheric dispersion of an explosion in a reprocessing waste tank.
Rolph, Ngan e Draxler (2014)	United States	Model the dispersal, deposition, decay of nuclear debris and calculate the radioactive dose rates following the detonation of six relatively small nuclear devices in the 1950s, in Nevada.	Configure the model with various particle size and activity distributions obtained from various published sources, and calculate dose rate contours for various nuclear tests at the site studied.
Silva et al. (2018)	Brazil	Simulate the air mass trajectories of two case studies: a natural event (volcano eruption) and a chemical accident that generated fire in the port region of Guarujá, São Paulo.	Simulate the air mass trajectories of the analyzed events.
Simsek et al. (2014)	Europe; Turkey	Simulate the transport and disposal of Cs-137 over Europe that occurred after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident.	Calculate the total Cs-137 deposition (wet and dry) and surface air concentrations that occurred in Europe and Turkey after the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident.
Vali et al. (2018)	Iran	Evaluate radiation doses for residents of Tehran province following a hypothetical accident in the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), including determining any protective actions that may be necessary for the benefit of human health.	Calculate the concentration of radionuclides in the air and the one deposited on the soil surface as a result of a hypothetical release of radionuclides from the TRR following a hypothetical accident scenario.
Wu et al. (2015)	China	Detect the arrival of radionuclides through atmospheric transport after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in Lanzhou, China.	Simulate the path of the air masses of the Fukushima crash that arrived in Lanzhou, China.
Zhang et al. (2015)	Hungary	Investigate the temporal variations of radionuclides discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, from aerosol sample collections in Osaka, Japan.	Verify the direct air mass transportation from Fukushima area to Osaka city.

Characteristics		Reference (year)
Type of event	Chemical	Auxier, Auxier and Hall (2017); Ramana, Nayyar and Schoeppner (2016); Silva et al. (2018); GeYang and Ou (2018).
	Biological	-
	Radiological/Nuclear	An et al. (2016); Auxier, Auxier and Hall (2017); Chai, Draxler and Stein (2015); Felsberg et al. (2018); Katata et al. (2015); Leelossy et al. (2017); Pirouzmand, Kowsar and Dehghani (2018); Ramana, Nayyar and Schoeppner (2016); Rolph, Ngan and Draxler (2014); Simsek et al. (2014); Vali et al. (2018); Wu et al. (2015); Zhang et al. (2015).
Management stage	Planning	An et al. (2016); Auxier, Auxier and Hall (2017); Chai, Draxler and Stein (2015); Felsberg et al. (2018); Katata et al. (2015); Leelossy et al. (2017); Pirouzmand, Kowsar and Dehghani (2018); Ramana, Nayyar and Schoeppner (2016); Rolph, Ngan, Draxler (2014); Simsek et al. (2014); Vali et al. (2018).
	Preparation	Auxier, Auxier and Hall (2017); Leelossy et al. (2017); Pirouzmand, Kowsar and Dehghani (2018); Vali et al. (2018).
	Response	GeYang and Ou (2018); Silva et al. (2018); Wu et al. (2015); Zhang et al. (2015).
	Recovery	GeYang and Ou (2018); Wu et al. (2015).
Spatial scale	Microscale	-
	Medium scale	-
	Local	-
	Urban	An et al. (2016); Auxier, Auxier and Hall (2017); GeYang and Ou (2018); Felsberg et al. (2018); Pirouzmand, Kowsar and Dehghani (2018); Ramana, Nayyar and Schoeppner (2016); Rolph, Ngan and Draxler (2014); Silva et al. (2018); Vali et al. (2018).
	Continental	Katata et al. (2015); Zhang et al. (2015).
	Global	Chai, Draxler and Stein (2015); Katata et al. (2015); Leelossy et al. (2017); Rolph, Ngan and Draxler (2014); Simsek et al. (2014); Wu et al. (2015).
Trajectory	Backward	Katata et al. (2015); Wu et al. (2015).
Trajectory	Forward	An et al. (2016); Auxier, Auxier and Hall (2017); Chai, Draxler and Stein (2015); Felsberg et al. (2018); GeYang and Ou (2018); Leelossy et al. (2017); Pirouzmand, Kowsar and Dehghani (2018); Ramana, Nayyar and Schoeppner (2016); Rolph, Ngan and Draxler (2014); Silva et al. (2018); Simsek et al. (2014); Vali et al. (2018); Zhang et al. (2015).
Meteorological data	In situ	An et al. (2016); Vali et al. (2018).
	Local databases	Auxier, Auxier and Hall (2017); Felsberg et al. (2018); GeYang and Ou (2018); Katata et al. (2015); Rolph, Ngan and Draxler (2014); Simsek et al. (2014).
	GDAS	Chai, Draxler and Stein (2015); Leelossy et al. (2017); Pirouzmand, Kowsar and Dehghani (2018); Ramana, Nayyar and Schoeppner (2016); Silva et al. (2018); Wu et al. (2015); Zhang et al. (2015).

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[1] Collaborators

Pereira APMF (0000-0002-7041-4255)* contributed to the conception, planning, analysis and interpretation of data, as well as the writing and approval of the final version of the manuscript. Rodrigues LAC (0000-0003-0025-4177)* contributed to the conception, planning, analysis and interpretation of data, as well as to the elaboration of the draft and critical revision of the content. Santos EA (0000-0001-9620-9498)* contributed to the analysis and interpretation of data, critical review of the content and approval of the final version of the manuscript. Cardoso TAO (0000-0002-5430-7273)* contributed to the conception, planning, analysis and interpretation of the data, as well as critical review of the content and approval of the final version of the manuscript. Cohen SC (0000-0001-6228-6583)* contributed to the conception, analysis, interpretation of data, critical review of the content and approval of the final version of the manuscript. s