Subtropical high-montane forest climate refuges in Brazil

Santos, Guilherme Neto dos; Silva, Ana Carolina da; Higuchi, Pedro

doi:10.1590/1678-992X-2022-0044

Guilherme Neto dos Santos

Conceptualization

Formal analysis

Investigation

Writing-Original Draft

Writing-Review & Editing

Visualization

Data Curation

Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina – Depto. de Engenharia Florestal, Av. Luiz de Camões, 2090 – 88520-000 – Lages, SC – Brasil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0346-6941

Ana Carolina da Silva

Conceptualization

Investigation

Resources

Writing-Review & Editing

Visualization

Supervision

Project administration

Funding acquisition

Data Curation

Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina – Depto. de Engenharia Florestal, Av. Luiz de Camões, 2090 – 88520-000 – Lages, SC – Brasil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1285-640X

Pedro Higuchi ^**Corresponding author <pedro.higuchi@udesc.br>

Conceptualization

Investigation

Writing-Review & Editing

Visualization

Methodology

Software

Data Curation

Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina – Depto. de Engenharia Florestal, Av. Luiz de Camões, 2090 – 88520-000 – Lages, SC – Brasil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3855-555X

*Corresponding author <pedro.higuchi@udesc.br>

Edited by: Antonio Carlos da Gama-Rodrigues

Figures (3)
Tables (3)

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Figure 1
– Present climatic adequacy areas for species typical of subtropical high-montane Atlantic Forest: (a) Crinodendron brasiliense, (b) Inga lentiscifolia, (c) Miconia ramboi, (d) Tibouchina pilosa, (e) Myrceugenia oxisepala, (f) Plinia cardifolia, (g) Myrsine altomontana, (h) Solanum cassioides, (i) Solanum pabstii, and (j) Drimys angustifolia based on the mean probability of all adjustments. Shades of gray, from darker to lighter, represent the gradient of higher to lower climatic adequacy for the species (%).

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Figure 2
– Indication of priority areas for the conservation of subtropical high-montane Atlantic Forest species in southern Brazil considering all the species evaluated and two climate change scenarios of low and high impact (a - RCP 4.5 and b - RCP 8.5) based on five different global atmospheric circulation models (GCMs) (CC = CCSM4, GS = GISS-E2-R, AC = ACCESS1- 0, HD = HadGEM2-AO, MC = MIROC5). Darker shades of green, or higher values on the scale: areas with a higher overlap of potential future climatic adequacy for subtropical high-montane Atlantic Forest species in South Brazil, i.e., where a larger number of the five models used as well as a higher number of the ten species overlap.

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Figure 3
– Conservation Units of Integral Protection that currently exist in the southern region of Brazil.

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Table 1
– Future decrease (2061-2080) in % of areas of climatic adequacy in a low impact scenario (RCP 4.5) for species typical of subtropical high-montane Atlantic Forest based on five different global atmospheric circulation models (GCMs) (CC = CCSM4, GS = GISS-E2-R, AC = ACCESS1- 0, HD = HadGEM2-AO, MC = MIROC5).

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Table 2
– Future decrease (2061-2080) in % of areas of climatic adequacy under a high impact scenario (RCP 8.5) for species typical of subtropical high-montane Atlantic Forest based on five different global atmospheric circulation models (GCMs) (CC = CCSM4, GS = GISS-E2-R, AC = ACCESS1- 0, HD = HadGEM2-AO, MC = MIROC5).

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Table 3
– Size of present and future areas of climatic adequacy for subtropical high-montane Atlantic Forest species in southern Brazil considering two climate change scenarios of low and high impact (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) based on the mean and consensus of five global atmospheric circulation models (GCMs) (CC = CCSM4, GS = GISS-E2-R, AC = ACCESS1- 0, HD = HadGEM2-AO, MC = MIROC5).

Species	RCP4.5					Mean

	AC	CC	GS	HD	MC
Crinodendron brasiliense	–83.50	–89.56	–65.32	–91.47	–80.70	–82.11
Myrsine altomontana	–45.21	–84.46	–42.82	–85.65	–85.29	–68.69
Drimys angustifolia	–70.18	–64.79	–30.24	–55.79	–50.89	–54.38
Plinia cardifolia	–37.44	–64.79	–24.39	–74.13	–64.20	–52.99
Solanum cassioides	–50.37	–67.03	–28.81	–72.47	–31.77	–50.09
Miconia ramboi	–39.61	–50.90	–10.36	–59.84	–39.91	–40.12
Myrceugenia oxisepala	–42.37	–45.14	–20.90	–44.18	–38.13	–38.14
Solanum pabstii	–33.48	–45.28	–15.13	–58.41	–37.52	–37.96
Tibouchina pilosa	–39.34	–43.07	6.52	–46.80	–45.56	–33.65
Inga lentiscifolia	–16.78	–38.50	–2.00	–46.31	–24.43	–25.60

Mean	–45.83	–59.35	–23.30	–63.50	–49.84	–48.37

Species	RCP8.5					Mean

	AC	CC	GS	HD	MC
Crinodendron brasiliense	–96.97	–97.87	–67.90	–99.21	–88.33	–90.06
Myrsine altomontana	–85.05	–90.77	–29.42	–93.57	–86.69	–77.10
Solanum cassioides	–71.93	–83.68	–32.04	–84.96	–65.62	–67.65
Drimys angustifolia	–83.74	–75.40	–33.22	–87.14	–58.36	–67.57
Plinia cardifolia	–85.77	–73.76	10.30	–93.18	–75.39	–63.56
Miconia ramboi	–76.67	–64.21	–9.22	–80.13	–60.52	–58.15
Solanum pabstii	–42.92	–74.01	–17.56	–74.01	–65.27	–54.75
Myrceugenia oxisepala	–58.30	–67.17	–26.06	–62.63	–45.48	–51.93
Tibouchina Pilosa	–85.01	–44.91	16.83	–88.51	–49.17	–50.15
Inga lentiscifolia	–43.20	–62.31	1.96	–72.56	–43.81	–43.98

Mean	–72.96	–73.41	–18.63	–83.59	–63.86	–62.49

Species	Present area	RCP 4.5 area	RCP 8.5 area
	-------------------------------------------- km²--------------------------------------------
Crinodendron brasiliense	6237.4	1115.9	620.2
Myrsine altomontana	11753.7	3407.8	2566.4
Plinia cardifolia	9443.6	3407.8	2573.4
Solanum cassioides	10423.6	5145.3	3323.8
Tibouchina pilosa	11816.7	6808.6	4884.9
Drimys angustifolia	16878	7479.3	5279.7
Solanum pabstii	17858.1	10629.5	7785.9
Miconia ramboi	20889.3	12456.6	8498.5
Myrceugenia oxisepala	16654	10300.4	9149.6
Inga lentiscifolia	20693.3	13832.9	10929.1

[1] *Corresponding author <pedro.higuchi@udesc.br>

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Subtropical high-montane forest climate refuges in Brazil

ABSTRACT