Differences between ecological niche models when predicting the potential distribution of soybean

ABSTRACT

Against the background of a sharp decline in soybean planting, rising imports, and natural disasters in China, finding appropriate distribution areas for soybean has become a matter of urgency so that soybean planting policies can be formulated and soybean food security ensured. Among the numerous ecological niche models, the most suitable one for predicting potential distribution areas of soybean in the frigid region must be identified. Based on 65 soybean occurrence points and nine environmental variables, three ecological niche models, MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN, were applied to the prediction of potential distribution areas for soybean. According to the analytical comparison, the three models predicted the potential distribution of soybean and, specifically, MaxEnt, stood out above the other two models as regards predicting the soybean distribution (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, AUC = 0.916, Kappa = 0.685). The potential distribution areas (from low suitability to high suitability) predicted by MaxEnt was the largest and accounted for 59.5 % of the total area. The potential suitable distribution area of soybean was mainly concentrated in relatively flat terrain. The Sanjiang Plain and the Northeast Plain accounted for 9.4 % of the total area in the frigid region and are highly suitability for soybean. At the same time, annual mean temperature, elevation and Apr solar radiation were the key determinants affecting soybeans’ habitat. On the whole, the selection of ecological niche models and the prediction of soybean potential distribution can provide an essential reference for soybean planting and planning. Moreover, it would be a reliable example for the subsequent related research on soybean habitats.

AUC; model evaluation; environmental variables; suitability