Estimating the relationship of sugarcane borer larvae and crop damage based on adult captures and climate variables

Assis, Henrico Luís Bizão de; Paiva, Paulo Eduardo Branco; Dinardo-Miranda, Leila Luci; Yamamoto, Pedro Takao

doi:10.1590/1678-992X-2021-0274

Henrico Luís Bizão de Assis

Instituto Federal do Triângulo Mineiro, R. João Batista Ribeiro, 4000 – 38064-790 – Uberaba, MG – Brasil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5656-9499

Paulo Eduardo Branco Paiva

Instituto Federal do Triângulo Mineiro, R. João Batista Ribeiro, 4000 – 38064-790 – Uberaba, MG – Brasil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9859-4251

Leila Luci Dinardo-Miranda

Instituto Agronômico de Campinas − Centro de Cana, Rodovia Antonio Duarte Nogueira, km 321, s/n − 14001-970 – Ribeirão Preto, SP – Brasil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4390-5024

Pedro Takao Yamamoto ^**Corresponding author <pedro. yamamoto@usp.br>

Universidade de São Paulo/ESALQ – Depto. de Entomologia e Acarologia, Av. Pádua Dias, 11 − 13418-900 – Piracicaba, SP – Brasil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8993-371X

*Corresponding author <pedro. yamamoto@usp.br>

Edited by: Alberto Soares Corrêa

Authors’ Contributions

Conceptualization: Assis, H.L.B.; Paiva, P.E.B. Data acquisition: Assis, H.L.B. Data analysis: Assis, H.L.B.; Paiva, P.E.B.; Dinardo-Miranda, L.L. Writing and editing: Assis, H.L.B.; Paiva, P.E.B.; Dinardo-Miranda, L.L.; Yamamoto, P.T.

Figures (4)
Tables (3)

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Figure 1
Estimation of larvae of Diatraea saccharalis outside the stalks in weeks zero+one+two based on the capture of males in week zero in traps with virgin females during the “autumn” (Apr to May 2017) in Tupaciguara (A) and Nova Ponte (B), Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

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Figure 2
Estimation of larvae inside the stalks in weeks three+four+five based on the capture of males of Diatraea saccharalis in traps with virgin females in week zero during the “spring” (Oct to Dec 2016) and “autumn” (Apr and May 2017) seasons in Tupaciguara (A and C) and Nova Ponte (B and D), Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

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Figure 3
Estimate of the proportion of internodes damaged (A), number of internodes damaged by sugarcane borer and fungi (B) in May 2017 based on accumulated captures of males in traps with virgin females in the period from July 2016 to May 2017 in Nova Ponte and Tupaciguara, Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

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Figure 4
Number of males of Diatraea saccharalis captured in five traps with virgin females per week (MTW), larvae outside the stalks (LOS), larvae inside the stalks (LIS) and pupae inside the stalks (PIS) in 120 sugarcane stalks, from July 2016 to Apr 2017, in Tupaciguara (A) and Nova Ponte (B), Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

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Table 1
Generalized linear models adjusted for estimating larvae outside the stalks (LOS) (weeks zero+one+two), larvae inside the stalks (LIS) (weeks three+four+five) based on the captures of males of Diatraea saccharalis in traps (MTW) with virgin females in week zero; proportion (PID) and number of internodes damaged (NID) by larvae and fungi in May 2017 based on accumulated captures of males in the period of July 2016 to May 2017 in Nova Ponte and Tupaciguara, Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

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Table 2
Generalized linear models adjusted for estimating larvae outside the stalks (LOS) (weeks zero+one+two), larvae inside the stalks (LIS) (weeks three+four+five), in each season of the year based on the captures of males of Diatraea saccharalis (MTW) (week zero) in traps with virgin females in Nova Ponte and Tupaciguara, Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

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Table 3
Generalized linear models adjusted for estimating males of Diatraea saccharalis captured in traps (MTW) with virgin females, larvae outside the stalks (LOS) of sugarcane and climate variables: average temperature (T), hours with relative humidity of the air less than 30 % (RH < 30 %), relative humidity (RH), rainfall (R) and number of rainy days (NRD) in the week of exposure of the trap and prior to sampling of larvae in the Tupaciguara and Nova Ponte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

Relationship between male captures and:	Test site	t test	z teste² 2 ns and	AIC³ 3 Alkaike Information Criterion: measurement of the quality of the adjusted regression models	Equation⁴ 4 Adjusted model where Ŷ is the dependent variable larvae or damaged internodes and X is the independent variable males captured.
Larvae outside the stalks¹ 1 Dependent variables	Nova Ponte	−	−1.206 ns	1858.3	−
Larvae outside the stalks¹ 1 Dependent variables	Tupaciguara	−	9.946^* ***** not significant and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the t test (variable internodes damaged with Gamma distribution) and z test (variables larvae and damaged internodes with Poisson distribution)	1834.8	$\hat{Y} = e^{0.896593 + 0.001683 *** X}$
Larvae inside the stalks	Nova Ponte	−	3.692^* ***** not significant and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the t test (variable internodes damaged with Gamma distribution) and z test (variables larvae and damaged internodes with Poisson distribution)	11451	$\hat{Y} = e^{0.8412696 + 0.0021671 *** X}$
Larvae inside the stalks	Tupaciguara	−	17.653^* ***** not significant and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the t test (variable internodes damaged with Gamma distribution) and z test (variables larvae and damaged internodes with Poisson distribution)	1665.5	$\hat{Y} = e^{0.558546 + 0.02767 *** X}$
Damaged internode proportion (%)	Nova Ponte	4.864^* ***** not significant and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the t test (variable internodes damaged with Gamma distribution) and z test (variables larvae and damaged internodes with Poisson distribution)	-	–38.955	$\hat{Y} = e^{- 5.3559849 + 0.0026177 ** X}$
Damaged internode proportion (%)	Tupaciguara		-	–38.955	$\hat{Y} = e^{- 5.3559849 + 0.0026177 ** X}$
Number of damaged internode (%)	Nova Ponte	-	22.42^* ***** not significant and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the t test (variable internodes damaged with Gamma distribution) and z test (variables larvae and damaged internodes with Poisson distribution)	302.49	$\hat{Y} = e^{2.621318 + 0.0024234 *** X}$
Number of damaged internode (%)	Tupaciguara	-		302.49	$\hat{Y} = e^{2.621318 + 0.0024234 *** X}$

Relationship between male captured and:	Season² 2 “winter” (July to Sept 2016), “spring” (Oct to Dec 2016), “summer” (Jan to Mar 2017) and “autumn” (Apr and May 2017)	Test site	z teste³ 3 ns	AIC⁴ 4 Alkaike Information Criterion: measurement of the quality of the adjusted regression models	Equation⁵ 5 Adjusted model where Ŷ is the dependent variable larvae and X is the independent variable males captured.
Larvae outside the stalks¹ 1 Dependent variables	“winter”	Nova Ponte	–1.681 ns	384.49	−
	“spring”		0.316 ns	171.20	−
	“summer”		–0.367 ns	659.59	−
	“autumn”		2.086^* *, and ***** not significant, significant at 5 %, significant at 1 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (variable larvae with Poisson distribution)	241.82	$\hat{Y} = e^{0.159703 + 0.013174 * X}$
Larvae outside the stalks	“winter”	Tupaciguara	1.424 ns	39.749	−
	“spring”		0.882 ns	201.13	−
	“summer”		–4.80 ns	484.62	−
	“autumn”		6.212^* , * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 %, significant at 1 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (variable larvae with Poisson distribution)	305.56	$\hat{Y} = e^{2.067651 + 0.017252 *** X}$
Larvae inside the stalks	“winter”	Nova Ponte	–1.225 ns	50.475	−
	“spring”		6.119^* , * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 %, significant at 1 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (variable larvae with Poisson distribution)	501.08	$\hat{Y} = e^{1.162677 + 0.012162 ** X}$
	“summer”		–7.233 ns	4701.20	−
	“autumn”		3.718^* , * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 %, significant at 1 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (variable larvae with Poisson distribution)	659.59	$\hat{Y} = e^{1.242729 + 0.013505 *** X}$
Larvae inside the stalks	“winter”	Tupaciguara	0.000 ns	4.00	−
	“spring”		3.078^ , * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 %, significant at 1 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (variable larvae with Poisson distribution)	195.95	$\hat{Y} = e^{- 0.265756 + 0.018431 ** X}$
	“summer”		1.192 ns	579.63	−
	“autumn”		7.353^* , * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 %, significant at 1 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (variable larvae with Poisson distribution)	357.40	$\hat{Y} = e^{0.864403 + 0.029568 ** X}$

Climate variables¹ 1 Independent variables	Test site	z test² 2 ns,	AIC³ 3 Akaike Information Criterion: measurement of the quality of the adjusted regression models	Equation⁴ 4 Adjusted model where Ŷ is the dependent variable, moths captured per trap per week and X represent the independent variable.
Males of D. saccharalis
Average temperature	Tupaciguara	6.481^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	2734.40	$\hat{Y} = e^{2.5454+0.0852*** X}$
Hours of relative humidity < 30 %		–29.03^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	1281.00	$\hat{Y} = e^{4.984255-0.042703*** X}$
Relative humidity		32.21^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	1581.40	$\hat{Y} = e^{1.582592+0.047554*** X}$
Rainfall		23.72^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	2273.00	$\hat{Y} = e^{4.210521+0.008588*** X}$
Number of rainy days		24.49^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	2140.40	$\hat{Y} = e^{3.991728+0.157084*** X}$
Average temperature	Nova Ponte	–3.547^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	4927.70	$\hat{Y} = e^{5.852129 - 0.035419 *** X}$
Hours of relative humidity < 30 %		–36.26^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	2466.20	$\hat{Y} = e^{5.374710 - 0.047642 *** X}$
Relative humidity		37.99^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	3312.50	$\hat{Y} = e^{2.373828+0.041597*** X}$
Rainfall		8.81^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	4866.60	$\hat{Y} = e^{4.9149805+0.0026908*** X}$
Number of rainy days		11.6^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	4810.20	$\hat{Y} = e^{4.828561+0.0174672*** X}$
Larvae of D. saccharalis
Average temperature	Tupaciguara	–1.947 ns	349.39	−
Hours of relative humidity < 30 %		–5.35^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	283.71	$\hat{Y} = e^{1.60731 - 0.06305 *** X}$
Relative humidity		5.784^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	314.60	$\hat{Y} = e^{- 1.8963 + 0.048 *** X}$
Rainfall		0.798 ns	352.58	−
Number of rainy days		2.230^* * and *** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	348.32	$\hat{Y} = e^{0.86370 + {0.07837}^{⋆} X}$
Average temperature	Nova Ponte	–5.462^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	569.81	$\hat{Y} = e^{8.52515 - {0.2787}^{***} X}$
Hours of relative humidity < 30 %		–5.259^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	566.14	$\hat{Y} = e^{2.207748 - {0.019978}^{***} X}$
Relative humidity		–4.640^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	578.61	$\hat{Y} = e^{0.610148 + {0.021879}^{***} X}$
Rainfall		–1.254 ns	599.29	−
Number of rainy days		6.475^* * and ***** not significant, significant at 5 % and significant at 0.1 %, respectively, for the z test (with Poisson distribution)	561.69	$\hat{Y} = e^{1.43388 + {0.18764}^{***} X}$

[1] *Corresponding author <pedro. yamamoto@usp.br>

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Estimating the relationship of sugarcane borer larvae and crop damage based on adult captures and climate variables

ABSTRACT: