Smoking prevalence and economic crisis in Brazil

Luis Eugenio de Souza

Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Saúde Coletiva. Salvador, BA, Brasil

Davide Rasella

Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Saúde Coletiva. Salvador, BA, Brasil

Rafael Barros

Universidade Federal da Bahia. Escola de Enfermagem. Salvador, BA, Brasil

Erick Lisboa

Universidade Federal da Bahia. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva. Salvador, BA, Brasil

Déborah Malta

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Escola de Enfermagem. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil

Martin Mckee

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. London, UK

Correspondence: Luis Eugenio de Souza Universidade Federal da Bahia Instituto de Saúde Coletiva Rua Basílio da Gama, s/n. Campus Universitário do Canela 40.110-040 Salvador, BA, Brasil E-mail: luiseugenio@ufba.br

Authors’ Contribution: Conception, planning, analysis, interpretation, writing of the study, and public responsibility for the content of the article: LES. Analysis, interpretation, critical review of the content, and public responsibility for the content of the article: DR. Analysis, interpretation, critical review of the content, and public responsibility for the content of the article: RB. Analysis, interpretation, critical review of the content, and public responsibility for the content of the article: EL. Interpretation, critical review of the content, and public responsibility for the content of the article: DM. Conception, planning, interpretation, critical review of the content, and public responsibility for the content of the article: MM.

	Overall population	Men	Women
Yearly average percentage variation of smoking prevalence in the 2006–2014 period	-0.63^a	-0.79^a	-0.49^a
	[-0.76 to -0.51]	[-0.94 to -0.64]	[-0.68 to -0.31]
Yearly average percentage variation of smoking prevalence in the 2015–2018 period	-0.36^a	-0.12	-0.45^a
	[-0.62 to -0.10]	[-0.44 to 0.18]	[-0.60 to -0.29]
Level change in 2015 vs predicted level without economic crisis	0.19	0.13	-0.03
	[-0.39 to 0.77]	[-0.92 to 1.19]	[-1.03 to 0.95]
Difference in trends (2015–2018 period – 2006-2014 period)	0.27	0.66^a	0.04
Difference in trends (2015–2018 period – 2006-2014 period)	[-0.02 to 0.58]	[0.33 to 1.00]	[-0.26 to 0.34]

	18–30 years old	31–44 years old	45–64 years old	65 and older
Yearly average percentage variation of smoking prevalence in the 2006–2014 period	-0.61^a	-0.75^a	-0.81^a	-0.22^a
	[-0.75 to -0.48]	[-0.82 to -0.69]	[-1.05 to -0.58]	[-0.34 to -0.11]
Yearly average percentage variation of smoking prevalence in the 2015–2018 period	-0.34^a	0.07	-0.50^a	-0.70^a
	[-0.45 to -0.23]	[-0.31 to 0.46]	[-0.87 to -0.14]	[-0.84 to -0.56]
Level change in 2015 vs predicted level without economic crisis	0.43	-0.12	0.03	1.25^a
	[-0.28 to 1.16]	[-.06 to 0.81]	[-.36 to 1.43]	[0.30 to 2.20]
Difference in trends (period 2015-2018; period 2006–2014)	0.27^a	0.83^a	0.30	-0.47^a
Difference in trends (period 2015-2018; period 2006–2014)	[0.12 to 0.42]	[0.45 to 1.21]	[-0.16 to 0.78]	[-0.61 to -0.34]

	0–8 years of education	9–11 years of education	12 years and more of education
Yearly average percentage variation of smoking prevalence in the 2006–2014 period	-0.64^a [-0.88 to -0.39]	-0.48^a [-0.63 to -0.34]	-0.59^a [-0.83 to -0.36]
Yearly average percentage variation of smoking prevalence in the 2015–2018 period	-0.55^a [-0.89 to -0.21]	-0.02 [-0.33 to 0.27]	-0.18 [-0.46 to 0.09]
Level change in 2015 vs predicted level without economic crisis	0.56 [-0.48 to 1.61]	0.19 [-0.84 to 1.23]	0.42 [-0.90 to 1.76]
Difference in trends (2015–2018 period; 2006–2014 period)	0.08 [-0.42 to 0.59]	0.45^a [0.14 to 0.77]	0.41^a [0.07 to 0.75]

Brasil