On factors affecting probabilistic service life modeling of concrete structures under marine environments

Fatores que afetam a modelagem probabilística da vida útil de estruturas de concreto armado expostas a ambientes marinhos

Abstract

Concrete durability design has received increasing importance recently, with specifications moving from prescriptive to performance based. In performance-based approaches, it is essential to evaluate and calibrate service life models capable of reliably representing the phenomenon that triggers the degradation process. This paper aims to discuss the main concepts related to the probabilistic service life modeling of reinforced concrete structures under chloride environments, considering the application of different prediction models. Through numerical analysis, parametric differences among chloride penetration models are evidenced, and the results, their variability, and the admitted failure conditions are analyzed. An overview of the current scenario of the durability design of concrete structures is presented. Aspects associated with characteristic service life, the definitions of durability limit states, and their respective target failure probabilities are discussed.

Keywords:
service life modeling; performance-based approach; durability limit states; probability-based design