Prevalencia y tendencia temporal de la prematuridad en Brasil antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19: análisis de la serie histórica de 2011 a 2021

Alberton, Marcos; Rosa, Vanessa Martins; Iser, Betine Pinto Moehlecke

Marcos Alberton

Collaborated with the study conception and design, analysis, interpretation of the results and drafting of the manuscript. The three authors have approved the final version of the manuscript.

Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina, Curso de Medicina, Tubarão, SC, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8764-1932

Vanessa Martins Rosa

Collaborated with data analysis and interpretation, and drafting of the manuscript. The three authors have approved the final version of the manuscript.

Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Palhoça, SC, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0000-0740

Betine Pinto Moehlecke Iser

Collaborated with the study conception and design, data analysis and interpretation, and critical reviewing of the manuscript. The three authors have approved the final version of the manuscript.

Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Palhoça, SC, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6061-2541

Correspondence:
Betine Pinto Moehlecke Iser.
E-mail:
betinee@gmail.com

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Alberton M collaborated with the study conception and design, analysis, interpretation of the results and drafting of the manuscript. Rosa VM collaborated with data analysis and interpretation, and drafting of the manuscript. Iser BPM collaborated with the study conception and design, data analysis and interpretation, and critical reviewing of the manuscript. The three authors have approved the final version of the manuscript.

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

The authors declare they have no conflicts of interest.

Associate editor

: Elisângela Aparecida da Silva Lizzi - https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7064-263X

Brazil and macro-regions	Average prevalence (%)	Point prevalence (%)			Trend from 2011 to 2021
Brazil and macro-regions	2011-2021	95%CI^a	2011	2021	β Coeff^b	95%CI^a	p-value	Interpretation
Brazil	11.1	10.7;11.4	9.8	11.3	0.46	-0.85;1.77	0.448	Stable
North	11.6	11.2;12.1	9.9	11.8	0.78	0.96;2.53	0.338	Stable
Northeast	11.0	10.8;11.2	10.5	11.2	0.16	-0.63;1.05	0.656	Stable
Southeast	10.9	10.5;11.3	9.3	11.3	0.72	-0.48;1.93	0.209	Stable
South	11.1	10.6;11.5	9.4	11.3	0.47	-1.34;2.28	0.570	Stable
Midwest	10.8	10.6;11.1	10.0	11.3	0.69	-0.22;1.58	0.114	Stable

Maternal and gestational characteristics	Average prevalence (%)	Point prevalence (%)			Trend from 2011 to 2021
Maternal and gestational characteristics	2011-2021	95%CI^a	2011	2021	β Coeff^b	95%CI^a	p-value	Interpretation
Mother’s age (in full years)
10-19	12.6	12.2;13.0	11.2	12.4	-0.04	-1.76;1.67	0.954	Stable
20-29	10.0	9.7;10.3	8.9	10.1	0.23	-1.01;1.48	0.677	Stable
30-39	11.6	11.2;12.0	10.3	12.2	0.86	-0.35;2.07	0.141	Stable
≥ 40	14.9	14.5;15.4	13.2	15.8	1.56	0.13;3.00	0.095	Stable
Mother’s schooling (in complete years of study)
1-3	12.9	12.4;13.4	10.9	13.8	1.47	-0.11;3.05	0.065	Stable
4-7	12.2	11.8;12.6	10.4	12.7	0.99	-0.67;2.66	0.211	Stable
8-11	10.7	10.4;11.1	9.4	11.1	0.64	-0.61;1.89	0.277	Stable
≥ 12	10.8	10.5;11.2	9.6	11.1	0.48	-0.56;1.53	0.324	Stable
Mother’s race/skin color
White	11.0	10.6;11.4	9.3	11.3	0.71	-0.81;2.23	0.316	Stable
Black	11.8	11.6;12.1	11.7	11.7	-0.62	-1.43;0.18	0.110	Stable
Mixed race	11.0	10.7;11.3	10.0	11.1	0.27	-0.97;1.50	0.631	Stable
Asian	11.2	10.9;11.6	10.0	11.6	0.71	-0.75;2.37	0.300	Stable
Indigenous	14.4	13.7; 15.0	14.3	14.2	-0.59	-4.07;2.88	0.706	Stable
Type of pregnancy
Single	10.1	9.8;10.4	9.0	10.2	0.17	-1.16;1.51	0.078	Stable
Twin	56.3	54.1;58.6	50.5	61.2	9.81	8.82;10.81	< 0.001	Increase
Number of prenatal care visits
1-3	21.8	21.3;22.3	196.3	21.9	1.15	-1.02;3.33	0.260	Stable
4-6	16.7	15.9;17.6	136.2	18.5	3.54	2.13;4.97	< 0.001	Increase
≥ 7	8.0	7.7;8.4	6.7	8.5	0.82	-0.36-2.01	0.149	Stable
Type of delivery
Vaginal	11.0	10.6;11.4	10.0	10.6	-0.52	-2.20;1.15	0.498	Stable
Cesarean section	11.1	10.7;11.5	9.7	11.9	1.23	0.13;2.34	0.093	Stable

Variables	Average prevalence (%) Pre-pandemic period: 2011-2019	95%CI^a	Average prevalence (%) Pandemic period: 2020-2021	95%CI^a
Brazil	11.0	10.6;11.5	11.3	11.2;11.4
North	11.6	11.0;12.1	11.9	11.5;12.2
Northeast	11.0	10.8;11.2	11.2	10.6;11.8
Southeast	10.8	10.3;11.3	11.3	11.0;11.6
South	11.0	10.4;11.6	11.3	10.7;11.9
Midwest	10.8	10.5;11.0	11.2	10.9;11.6
Mother’s age (in full years)
10-19	12.6	12.1;13.1	12.5	11.6;13.3
20-29	10.0	9.5;10.4	10.1	10.0;10.2
30-39	11.5	11.1;11.9	12.1	11.5;12.8
≥ 40	14.8	14.3;15.3	15.7	14.6;16.8
Mother’s schooling (in complete years of study)
1-3	12.7	12.2;13.3	13.6	10.9;16.3
4-7	12.1	11.6;12.6	12.6	12.1;13.1
8-11	10.7	10.2;11.1	11.1	11.0;11.2
≥ 12	10.8	10.4;11.2	11.1	10.9;11.3
Mother’s race/skin color
White	10.9	10.4;11.4	11.3	10.8;11.8
Black	11.8	11.5;12.2	11.7	11.6;11.8
Mixed race	11.0	10.6;11.3	11.2	10.9;11.4
Asian	11.1	10.7;11.6	11.7	10.9;12.5
Indigenous	14.4	13.6;15.3	14.1	12.7;15.4
Type of pregnancy
Single	10.1	9.6;10.5	10.2	10.1;10.3
Twin	55.4	53.2;57.5	60.8	54.9;66.7
Number of prenatal care visits
1-3	21.9	21.2;22.5	21.6	17.9;25.3
4-6	16.4	15.5;17.4	18.0	12.7;23.4
≥ 7	7.9	7.5;8.3	8.5	8.0;8.9
Type of delivery
Vaginal	11.1	10.5;11.6	10.7	9.4;12.0
Cesarean section	11.0	10.6;11.4	11.8	10.7;12.9

Variables	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Brazil	9.8	11.9	11.5	11.2	10.8	11.1	10.9	11.0	11.1	11.3	11.3
North	9.9	12.5	12.1	11.8	11.4	11.5	11.4	11.6	12.1	11.9	11.8
Northeast	10.5	11.3	11.3	11.1	10.9	11.3	10.9	10.8	10.8	11.3	11.2
Southeast	9.4	12.2	11.7	11.2	10.8	11.0	10.9	11.0	11.0	11.2	11.3
South	9.3	11.8	11.0	10.9	10.6	11.0	10.8	11.0	11.1	11.2	11.3
Midwest	10.0	11.3	11.0	10.8	10.7	10.7	10.5	10.9	11.0	11.2	11.3
Mother’s age (in full years)
10-19	11.2	13.6	13.3	12.9	12.5	12.8	12.5	12.4	12.4	12.5	12.4
20-29	8.9	10.8	10.4	10.1	9.8	10.1	9.8	9.9	9.9	10.1	10.1
30-39	10.3	12.3	11.8	11.5	11.3	11.6	11.5	11.6	11.7	12.1	12.2
≥ 40	13.2	15.4	15.1	14.7	14.5	14.7	14.9	15.1	15.4	15.6	15.8
Mother’s schooling (in complete years of study)
1-3	10.9	13.3	13.0	12.9	12.6	13.1	12.9	13.1	12.7	13.4	13.8
4-7	10.4	12.9	12.6	12.3	12.0	12.3	12.1	12.2	12.2	12.6	12.7
8-11	9.4	11.4	11.1	10.8	10.4	10.8	10.7	10.7	10.8	11.1	11.1
≥ 12	9.6	11.6	11.0	10.9	10.7	10.9	10.6	10.8	11.0	11.1	11.1
Mother’s race/skin color
White	9.3	11.9	11.4	11.0	10.7	11.0	10.9	11.0	11.1	11.3	11.3
Black	11.7	12.7	12.3	12.0	11.5	11.9	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.7	11.7
Mixed race	10.0	11.8	11.5	11.1	10.8	11.0	10.8	10.9	11.0	11.2	11.1
Asian	10.0	11.8	11.7	11.4	11.0	11.4	10.5	11.2	11.4	11.7	11.6
Indigenous	14.3	15.9	16.1	15.2	14.4	14.0	13.5	12.9	13.6	14.0	14.2
Type of delivery
Single	9.0	11.0	10.6	10.3	9.9	10.2	9.9	9.9	10.0	10.2	10.2
Twin	50.5	53.8	53.2	54.6	54.7	56.3	57.1	58.6	59.5	60.3	61.2
Number of prenatal care visits
1-3	19.6	22.4	21.9	21.8	21.7	22.2	22.3	22.3	22.3	21.3	21.9
4-6	13.6	16.4	16.1	16.1	16.2	16.9	17.1	17.5	18.1	17.6	18.5
≥ 7	6.7	8.6	8.2	8.0	7.7	8.0	7.8	8.0	8.2	8.5	8.5
Type
Vaginal	9.9	12.2	11.8	11.5	10.9	11.1	10.8	10.7	10.6	10.8	10.6
Cesarean section	9.7	11.6	11.2	11.0	10.8	11.2	11.1	11.2	11.4	11.7	11.9

[1] Correspondence:
Betine Pinto Moehlecke Iser.
E-mail:
betinee@gmail.com

Brasil

Brasil

Prevalencia y tendencia temporal de la prematuridad en Brasil antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19: análisis de la serie histórica de 2011 a 2021

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