Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
to present the indicators' projection method of the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Brazilian State capitals and the Federal District, 2012-2022.
METHODS:
simple linear regression model was used to calculate the indicators' projections with data from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (Vigitel).
RESULTS:
in most of the capitals, there was an increase in the prevalence of obesity (annual change: 0.36%;1.29%), overweight (annual change: 1.11%;2.00%), recommended (annual change: 1.45%;2.66%) and regular (annual change: 0.45%;1.46%) consumption of fruits and vegetables; smoking presented a decreasing trend (annual change: -1.34%;-0.20%); whereas physical inactivity, heavy drinking and mammography and Pap smears examinations were stable.
CONCLUSION:
most of the goals are possible; however, effective actions are necessary, especially for tackling overweight and heavy drinking.
Key words:
Chronic Disease; Interview; Health Surveys; Linear Models; Forecasting
