Ausência de impactos de projetos de desenvolvimento rural? Ausência de sinergias com CCTs? O Pró-Gavião no Brasil

Costa, Lorena Vieira; Helfand, Steven M.; Souza, André Portela de

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Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

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Article • Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural 61 (4) • 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.268158 copiar

Ausência de impactos de projetos de desenvolvimento rural? Ausência de sinergias com CCTs? O Pró-Gavião no Brasil

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Resumo:

Estimamos os impactos de um projeto de desenvolvimento rural financiado pelo FIDA (Pró-Gavião). Uma vez que políticas públicas são frequentemente implementadas conjuntamente, também estimamos os impactos de, e as possíveis sinergias com, o programa brasileiro de transferência condicionada de renda, Bolsa Família. Desenvolvido conjuntamente pelo FIDA e pelo Governo da Bahia, o Pró-Gavião foi um projeto de desenvolvimento rural ocorrido em 13 municípios entre 1997 e 2005. Extraímos dados em nível de setor censitário para a análise dos Censos Agropecuários de 1995-96 e 2006. A avaliação usa Propensity Score Matching para a obtenção de um grupo de controle e diferença-em-diferenças para estimar os impactos. As variáveis de resultado incluem produtividade da terra, renda agrícola e trabalho infantil. Embora o Pró-Gavião tenha envolvido investimentos significativos na região, os resultados sugerem ausência de impactos do projeto, bem como de sinergias entre os dois programas. Esses resultados inesperados são robustos a diferentes abordagens para identificar os setores censitários tratados, a técnicas de pareamento e à consideração de heterogeneidades em diversas dimensões. Mostramos que a ausência de impactos não é resultado de condições pluviométricas adversas ou da influência de outros programas. Explicações alternativas para a ausência de resultados são exploradas.

Palavras-chave:
projetos de desenvolvimento rural; transferências condicionadas de renda; FIDA; sinergias; Brasil

	Treated AMCs		Non-treated AMCs (non-neighbors)
N	99		288		p-value
	Mean	SE	Mean	SE	p-value
Number of establishments	182.84	188.38	185.43	180.03	0.90
Farm size	17.02	4.71	13.34	4.80	0.00***
Land productivity	130.09	88.77	272.32	461.46	0.00***
Income per adult	553.65	393.74	748.14	1200.17	0.11
Child labor (share)	0.30	0.21	0.26	0.19	0.06*
Access to credit (share)	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.02**
Investments	241.71	322.66	275.78	1120.96	0.77
Electricity (share)	0.15	0.19	0.13	0.20	0.39
Value of output per estab.	2082.26	1275.83	3755.94	10274.43	0.11
Expenditure per estab.	437.55	305.23	1122.55	3152.46	0.03**
Livestock production (share)	0.44	0.17	0.34	0.21	0.00***
Vegetable production (share)	0.41	0.16	0.49	0.22	0.00***
Vegetable extraction (share)	0.11	0.10	0.04	0.09	0.00***
Permanent crops (share)	0.02	0.05	0.08	0.18	0.00***
Temporary crops (share)	0.28	0.12	0.36	0.21	0.00***
Technical assistance (share)	0.03	0.11	0.05	0.12	0.22
Cooperatives (share)	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.07	0.06*
Animal traction (share)	0.39	0.37	0.54	0.35	0.00***
Mechanical traction (share)	0.04	0.07	0.16	0.25	0.00***
Irrigation (share)	0.02	0.04	0.09	0.18	0.00***
Poverty Incidence (share)	0.89	0.11	0.87	0.13	0.05**
Extreme poverty incidence (share)	0.77	0.17	0.75	0.17	0.21
Poverty gap	0.70	0.15	0.68	0.16	0.46
Extreme poverty gap	0.55	0.18	0.55	0.18	0.93

	Land Productivity		Income per adult		Child labor
	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
Pró-Gavião	0.16	0.30	0.001	0.22	10.41	10.70
	(0.28)	(0.28)	(0.38)	(0.38)	(9.73)	(9.19)
Social programs incidence	-0.001	0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.13	0.10
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.01)	(0.01)	0.17	(0.17)
Interaction between the programs	-0.01	-0.01	-0.003	-0.01	-0.22	-0.19
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Agricultural controls	N	Y	N	Y	N	Y
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.00	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.19	0.17
N	426	426	388	388	426	426

	Land Productivity			Income per adult			Child labor
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pro-Gavião	0.26	0.26	0.04	0.09	0.19	-0.47	12.84	10.36	21.33
	(0.30)	(0.30)	(0.30)	(0.40)	(0.41)	(0.40)	(9.86)	(9.78)	(9.99)
PG*technical assistance above the median	-0.21	-	-	-0.21	-	-	-5.66	-	-
	(0.17)			(0.25)			(5.37)
PG*infrastructure and construction above the median	-	-0.25	-	-	-0.49*	-	-	0.14	-
		(0.16)			(0.25)			(5.34)
Pro-Gavião* extreme poverty above the median			0.24			0.85***			-20.96***
			(0.18)			(0.24)			(4.70)
Social programs incidence	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.13	0.13	0.13
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.18)
Interaction between the programs	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.22	-0.22	-0.24
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.23)
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.03	0.03	426	0.07	0.09	0.14	0.42	0.41	0.47
N	426	426	0.04	388	388	388	426	426	426

	Land Productivity	Income per adult	Child labor
Panel A: Exact coordinates
Pro-Gavião	-0.05	-0.65**	4.96
	(0.27)	(0.32)	(5.92)
Social programs incidence	0.00	-0.01**	-0.01
	(0.004)	(0.01)	(0.12)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.01	-0.06
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.15)
N	396	359	396

Panel B: Kernel matching
Pro-Gavião	-0.05	-0.22	11.64
	(0.27)	(0.38)	(8.35)
Social programs incidence	0.00	-0.01*	0.18
	(0.004)	(0.01)	(0.13)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.00	-0.26
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.21)
N	768	704	768

Panel C: IBGE AMCs
Pro-Gavião	-0.09	-0.41	9.85
	(0.23)	(0.33)	(6.41)
Social programs incidence	0.00	-0.01**	0.11
	(0.003)	(0.01)	(0.12)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.01	-0.31*
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.18)
N	576	517	576

Time dummy	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y

		Land Productivity	Income per adult	Child labor
Panel a: Main model
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.16	0.00	10.41
	P-value	0.13	0.95	0.00
Panel b: Heterogenous effects by initial level of extreme poverty
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.04	-0.47	21.33**
	P-value	0.82	0.04	0.00
PG*extreme poverty above the median	Coeficient	0.24	0.85***	-20.96***
	P-value	0.22	0.01	0.00
Panel c: PG intensity (technical assistance)
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.26	0.09	12.84
	P-value	0.10	0.69	0.01
PG*technical assistance above the median	Coeficient	-0.21	-0.21	-5.66
	P-value	0.23	0.39	0.26
Panel d: PG intensity (construction of infrastructure)
Pro-Gavião	Coeficient	0.26	0.19	10.36
	P-value	0.10	0.42	0.02
PG*infrastructure above the median	Coeficient	-0.25	-0.49*	0.14
	P-value	0.10	0.02	0.97

Variables
Farm size	0.057***
	(0.020)
Land productivity	-0.002**
	(0.001)
Access to credit (share)	-16.686
	(14.681)
Investments per establishment	0.001***
	(0.0002)
Livestock production (share)	1.575***
	(0.499)
Vegetable extraction (share)	3.384***
	(0.810)
Permanent crops (share)	-0.926
	(1.277)
Technical assistance (share)	-0.219
	(0.882)
Cooperatives (share)	2.697
	(2.229)
Electricity (share)	1.674***
	(0.470)
Mechanical traction (share)	-3.628***
	(1.183)
Irrigation (share)	-4.595***
	(1.704)
Extreme poverty gap	-1.690***
	(0.602)
Constant	-0.962
	(0.691)
N	387
LR chi2	144.870
Prob>chi2	0.000
Pseudo R2	0.329

	Mean		% bias	% reduction
Variables	Treated	Controls		\bias\	p-value
Farm size	16.92	16.94	-0.30	99.60	0.98
Land productivity	130.51	132.74	-0.70	98.40	0.86
Access to credit (share)	0.00	0.00	-1.60	95.00	0.54
Investments per establishment	237.10	211.69	3.10	25.40	0.55
Livestock production (share)	0.44	0.41	19.50	64.60	0.14
Vegetable extraction (share)	0.11	0.13	-21.50	72.20	0.34
Permanent crops (share)	0.02	0.01	4.50	90.40	0.37
Technical assistance (share)	0.03	0.02	13.10	12.10	0.26
Cooperatives (share)	0.01	0.01	6.20	74.90	0.50
Electricity (share)	0.14	0.15	-8.00	20.70	0.60
Mechanical traction (share)	0.04	0.05	-7.30	88.40	0.21
Irrigation (share)	0.02	0.01	2.40	95.50	0.57
Extreme poverty gap	0.55	0.54	6.70	-523.40	0.65
Rubin's R Unmatched	0.1
Matched	1.04

	Investment		Access to credit		Access to electricity
	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
Pró-Gavião	-0.13	0.19	0.15	0.12	-6.75	-11.27
	(0.84)	(0.80)	(2.69)	(2.51)	(9.67)	(8.37)
Social programs incidence	-0.01	-0.01	0.21***	0.15***	-0.09	-0.29*
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.06)	(0.05)	(0.17)	(0.15)
Interaction between the programs	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.03	0.43*	0.55**
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.24)	(0.22)
Agricultural controls	N	Y	N	Y	N	Y
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.11	0.10	0.67	0.68	0.54	0.48
N	299	299	426	426	426	426

	Investment			Credit			Electricity
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pro-Gavião	-0.29	-0.13	-0.14	-0.18	1.00	0.28	-8.45	-9.61	-8.85
	(0.85)	(0.84)	(0.85)	(2.72)	(2.72)	(2.67)	(10.05)	(9.72)	(9.91)
PG*technical assistance above the median	0.66*	-		0.76	-		3.97	-
	(0.33)			(1.58)			(5.25)
PG*infrastructure and construction above the median	-	0.21		-	-2.27		-	7.56
		(0.35)			(1.60)			(5.32)
Pro-Gavião* extreme poverty above the median			0.06			-0.27			4.03
			(0.35)			(1.52)			(5.14)
Social programs incidence	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.21***	0.21***	0.21***	-0.09	-0.09	-0.09
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)
Interaction between the programs	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.43*	0.43*	0.43*
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Time dummy	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fixed effects	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R2	0.19	0.17	0.17	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.76	0.76	0.76
N	299	299	299	426	426	426	426	426	426

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E-mail: sober@sober.org.br

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[1] Note: All monetary values are in Reais of 2006 (R$ 1 = US$0.43). *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.