Applying analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to identify decision-making in soybean supply chains: a case of Mato Grosso production

Toloi, Rodrigo Carlo; Reis, João Gilberto Mendes dos; Toloi, Marley Nunes Vituri; Vendrametto, Oduvaldo; Cabral, José António Sarsfield Pereira

doi:10.1590/1806-9479.2021.229595

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Article • Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural 60 (2) • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.229595 copy

Applying analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to identify decision-making in soybean supply chains: a case of Mato Grosso production

Aplicando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP) para identificar a tomada de decisão na cadeia de suprimentos da soja: um estudo de caso da produção em Mato Grosso

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

This paper aims to identify and analyze the factors that influence the decision of Mato Grosso’s farmers to produce soybean using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We found evidence that decision-making of soybean production is related to rural production aspects such as climate, financing, cost of inputs, and soil quality rather than marketing and logistics. The novelty of this paper is the empirical analysis of the decision-making in agricultural production using AHP. The decision model was created and tested considering 21 farmers and 19 experts linked to the soybean production. Three different scenarios were considered: farmers' view, experts' view, and combined view. Our findings indicate that farmers and experts agree with rural aspects are predominant in the decision to plant soybean. Moreover, logistics have been used as an important flag of soybean competitiveness on international trade by soybean stakeholders in Brazil. However, our results show that logistics impact in the soybean decision-making process is low. Due to data limitation access, this study focuses only on Mato Grosso. However, this study has an exploratory character and presents empirical results that may help to understand soybean production over the country.

Keywords:
Analytic Hierarchy Process - AHP; soybean production supply chains; agricultural production; decision-making; food production

Intensity of importance		Description
Equal importance	1	Both activities equally contribute to the objective.
Moderate importance	3	Weak or slight importance over another – Experience and judgment slightly favor one activity over another.
Strong importance	5	Greater or more essential importance when compared with another – Experience and judgment strongly favor one activity over another.
Very strong importance	7	Very high or demonstrated importance – An activity is favored very strongly over another; its dominance is demonstrated in practice.
Extreme importance	9	Extremely high importance – The evidence favors one activity over another with the highest level of certainty.

Criteria	Factors	Author
Production (P)	Soil quality	Carauta et al. (2017)Carauta, M., Libera, A. A. D., Hampf, A., Chen, R. F. F., Silveira, J. M. F. J., & Berger, T. (2017). On-farm trade-offs for optimal agricultural practices in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Revista de Economia e Agronegócio, 15(3), 299-322.; Yost et al. (2017)Yost, M. A., Kitchen, N. R., Sudduth, K. A., Sadler, E. J., Drummond, S. T., & Volkmann, M. R. (2017). Long-term impact of a precision agriculture system on grain crop production. Precision Agriculture, 18, 823-842., Congreves et al. (2015)Congreves, K. A., Hayes, A., Verhallen, E. A., & Van Eerd, L. L. (2015). Long-term impact of tillage and crop rotation on soil health at four temperate agroecosystems. Soil & Tillage Research, 152, 17-28., Choudhary et al. (2018)Choudhary, M., Panday, S. C., Meena, V. S., Singh, S., Yadav, R. P., Mahanta, D., Mondal, T., Mishra, P. K., Bisht, J. K., & Pattanayak, A. (2018). Long-term effects of organic manure and inorganic fertilization on sustainability and chemical soil quality indicators of soybean-wheat cropping system in the Indian mid-Himalayas. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 257, 38-46., Santos et al. (2008)Santos, F. C., Novais, R. F., Neves, J. C. L., Foloni, J. M., Albuquerque Filho, M. R., & Ker, J. C. (2008). Produtividade e aspectos nutricionais de plantas de soja cultivadas em solos de cerrado com diferentes texturas. Revista Brasileira de Ciência do Solo, 32(5), 2015-2025.; Lacerda et al. (2015)Lacerda, J. J. J., Resende, Á.V., Furtini Neto, A. E., Hickmann, C., & Conceição, O. P. (2015). Adubação, produtividade e rentabilidade da rotação entre soja e milho em solo com fertilidade construída. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, 50(9), 769-778.;
	Climate	Arvor et al. (2010)Arvor, D., Gonçalves, M. M., Moine, S., & Vitter, M. (2010). The evolution of the soybean industry in Mato Grosso. Confins, 10., Féres et al. (2011)Féres, J., Reis, E., & Speranza, J. S. (2011). Impacto das mudanças climáticas no setor agrícola brasileiro. In R. Seroa da Motta, J. Hargrave, G. Luedemann, & M. B. S. Gutierrez (Orgs.), Mudança do clima no Brasil: Aspectos econômicos, sociais e regulatórios. Ipea., Pires et al. (2016)Pires, G. F., Abrahão, G. M., Brumatti, L. M., Oliveira, L. J. C., Costa, M. H., Liddicoat, S., Kato, E., & Ladle, R. J. (2016). Increased climate risk in Brazilian double cropping agriculture systems: implications for land use in Northern Brazil. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 228–229, 286-298.;
	Cost of inputs	Celio et al. (2014)Celio, E., Flint, C. G., Schoch, P., & Grêt-Regamey, A. (2014). Farmers’ perception of their decision-making in relation to policy schemes: a comparison of case studies from Switzerland and the United States. Land Use Policy, 41, 163-171.; Garrett et al. (2013)Garrett, R. D., Lambin, E. F., & Naylor, R. L. (2013). Land institutions and supply chain configurations as determinants of soybean planted area and yields in Brazil. Land Use Policy, 31, 385-396.; Singh et al. (2016)Singh, C., Dorward, P., & Osbahr, H. (2016). Developing a holistic approach to the analysis of farmer decision-making: implications for adaptation policy and practice in developing countries. Land Use Policy, 59, 329-343.; Goldsmith (2008)Goldsmith, P. D. (2008). Soybean production and processing in Brazil. In L. A. Johnson, P. J. White, & R. Galloway (Eds.), Soybeans: Chemistry, production, processing, and utilization (pp. 773–798). Urbana: AOCS Press.
	Agricultural financing	Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária (2019)Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária – IMEA. (2019). Composição do funding do custeio da soja para safra 2019/20 em Mato Grosso. Cuiabá: IMEA.; Goldsmith (2008)Goldsmith, P. D. (2008). Soybean production and processing in Brazil. In L. A. Johnson, P. J. White, & R. Galloway (Eds.), Soybeans: Chemistry, production, processing, and utilization (pp. 773–798). Urbana: AOCS Press.
Logistics (L)	Storage	Arvor et al. (2010)Arvor, D., Gonçalves, M. M., Moine, S., & Vitter, M. (2010). The evolution of the soybean industry in Mato Grosso. Confins, 10.; Vieira & Dalchiavon (2018)Vieira, R. A., & Dalchiavon, F. C. (2018). Custos e viabilidade da implantação de uma unidade armazenadora de grãos no Mato Grosso. Revista IPecege, 4(2), 7-15.; Maia et al. (2013)Maia, G. B. S., Pinto, A. R., Marques, C. Y. T., Lyra, D. D., & Roitman, F. B. (2013). Panorama da armazenagem de produtos agrícolas no Brasil. Revista do BNDES, 40, 161-193.;
Logistics (L)	Transportation	Kussano & Batalha (2012)Kussano, M. R., & Batalha, M. O. (2012). Custos logísticos agroindustriais: avaliação do escoamento da soja em grão do Mato Grosso para o mercado externo. Gestão & Produção, 19(3), 619-632., Martins et al. (2005)Martins, R. S., Rebechi, D., Prati, C. A., & Conte, H. (2005). Decisões estratégicas na logística do agronegócio: compensação de custos transporte-armazenagem para a soja no estado do Paraná. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 9(1), 53-78.; Lipinski et al. (2013)Lipinski, B., Hanson, C., Lomax, J., Kitinoja, L., Waite, R., & Searchinger, T. (2013). Reducing Food Loss and Waste. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.; Vilhena & Ribeiro (2015)Vilhena, L. C. T., & Ribeiro, P. C. C. (2015). Stock management and vendor managed inventory: a case study in a supermarket network. Revista Produção e Desenvolvimento, 1(1), 50-59.; Oliveira et al. (2016)Oliveira, F. C., Coelho, P. H. M. C., & Sousa Neto, M. S. N., Andre, A. C. S., Santos, F. L. S., Oliveira, J. P. M., Oliveira, B. S., Teixeira, I. R. T., & Campos, A. J. C. (2016). Logistics and storage of soybean in Brazil. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 11, 3261–3272., Garrett et al. (2013)Garrett, R. D., Lambin, E. F., & Naylor, R. L. (2013). Land institutions and supply chain configurations as determinants of soybean planted area and yields in Brazil. Land Use Policy, 31, 385-396.; Goldsmith (2008)Goldsmith, P. D. (2008). Soybean production and processing in Brazil. In L. A. Johnson, P. J. White, & R. Galloway (Eds.), Soybeans: Chemistry, production, processing, and utilization (pp. 773–798). Urbana: AOCS Press..
Marketing (M)	Reliability	Fountas et al. (2006)Fountas, S., Wulfsohn, D., Blackmore, B. S., Jacobsen, H. L., & Pedersen, S. M. (2006). A model of decision-making and information flows for information-intensive agriculture. Agricultural Systems, 87(2), 192-210.; Singh et al. (2016)Singh, C., Dorward, P., & Osbahr, H. (2016). Developing a holistic approach to the analysis of farmer decision-making: implications for adaptation policy and practice in developing countries. Land Use Policy, 59, 329-343.; Turzi (2011)Turzi, M. (2011). The soybean republic. Yale Journal of International Affairs, 6, 59-68., Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária (2019)Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária – IMEA. (2019). Composição do funding do custeio da soja para safra 2019/20 em Mato Grosso. Cuiabá: IMEA., Silva & Lapo (2012)Silva, F. P., & Lapo, L. E. R. (2012). Modelos de financiamento da cadeia de grãos no Brasil. In 2a Conferência em Gestão de Risco e Comercialização de Commodities. São Paulo: BM&FBOVESPA.; Kunitake & Mota (2016)Kunitake, A., & Mota, E. P. (2016). Análise comparativa do pagamento de insumos da produção da soja no estado de Mato Grosso. Revista IPecege, 2(4), 24-41.,
	Price	Oliveira & Pereira (2009)Oliveira, D. L., & Pereira, S. A. (2009). Análise do processo decisório no agronegócio: abordagem na cadeia de valor da soja. Gestão e Sociedade, 2(4), 1-24., Gonçalves et al. (2014)Gonçalves, D. N. S., Gonçalves, C. de M., Assis, T. F., & Silva, M. A. (2014). Analysis of the difference between the euclidean distance and the actual road distance in Brazil. Transportation Research Procedia, 3, 876-885., Goldsmith (2008)Goldsmith, P. D. (2008). Soybean production and processing in Brazil. In L. A. Johnson, P. J. White, & R. Galloway (Eds.), Soybeans: Chemistry, production, processing, and utilization (pp. 773–798). Urbana: AOCS Press.
	Negotiation	Coelho (2000)Coelho, C. N. (2000). Negociações agrícolas: existe uma saída? Revista de Política Agrícola, 9(4), 46-49.; Dias (2008)Dias, S. W. (2008). Estilos de negociação nas transações comprador-vendedor: uma aplicação do instrumento TKI® (Masters thesis). Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo., Colsera & Henz (2000)Colsera, L., & Henz, R. (2000). A retomada das negociações agrícolas na OMC. Revista de Política Agrícola, 9(4), 10-45..

Criteria/Subcriteria	Producers	Experts	Overall
Criteria/Subcriteria	Weigths (Ranking)	Weigths (Ranking)	Weigths (Ranking)
Marketing	0.229 (2)	0.271 (2)	0.293 (2)
Price	0.691 (1)	0.717 (1)	0.627 (1)
Negotiation	0.218 (2)	0.195 (2)	0.280 (2)
Reliability	0.091 (3)	0.088 (3)	0.094 (3)
Logistics	0.075 (3)	0.085 (3)	0.067 (3)
Transport	0.833 (1)	0.857 (1)	0.833 (1)
Storage	0.167 (2)	0.143 (2)	0.167 (2)
Rural Production	0.696 (1)	0.644 (1)	0.641 (1)
Climate	0.575 (1)	0.590 (1)	0.556 (1)
Agricultural financing	0.236 (2)	0.247 (2)	0.293 (2)
Cost of inputs	0.135 (3)	0.107 (3)	0.100 (3)
Soil quality	0.054 (4)	0.056 (4)	0.050 (4)

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[1] Source: Adapted from Saaty (1980)Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process: planning, priority setting, resource allocation. New York: McGraw-Hill International Book Company. and Granemann & Figueiredo (2013)Granemann, S., & Figueiredo, A. (2013). Logística aplicada à exportação - instrumento de competitividade. Revista Brasileira de Economia de Empresas, 1(1), 51-62..