Regional impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence on large-scale and family farming in Brazil

Tanure, Tarik Marques do Prado; Domingues, Edson Paulo; Magalhães, Aline Souza

doi:10.1590/1806-9479.2022.262515

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Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

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ARTICLE • Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural 62 (1) • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.262515 copy

Regional impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence on large-scale and family farming in Brazil

Os impactos regionais das mudanças climáticas sobre a produtividade agrícola familiar e patronal no Brasil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

This paper projects and analyzes the regional impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil between 2021 and 2050, using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The methodology adopted consists of a cross-sectional estimation of a production function in which agricultural productivity is determined by climatic, geographic, and productive factors. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating agricultural production into family farming and large-scale agriculture, indicating the magnitude and direction of impacts by crops and regions in Brazil, a country with a great territorial dimension and relevant and heterogeneous agricultural production. The results indicate that the agricultural productivity of family farming is more sensitive and therefore this type of producer could be more vulnerable to the phenomenon. On average, the effects will be negative in the North/Northeast regions and for cassava, maize, beans, and soybeans, with possible impacts on deforestation and on food supply. Productivity gains are expected in the southern region and for the cultivation of sugar cane and soybeans. Deterioration of food security of the vulnerable farmers and regional disparities may increase in Brazil.

Keywords:
climate change impacts; agricultural productivity; family farming; food security

Control Variables	Dependent Variable: log (Aggregate Agricultural Productivity)
Control Variables	Step (3)	Step (2)	Step (1)
High Temperature	-3.088***	-3.363***	-3.376***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.382)	(0.465)	(0.484)
Low Temperature	1.427***	1.519***	1.520***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.127)	(0.142)	(0.142)
Squared High Temperature	0.060***	0.066***	0.066***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.010)
Squared Low Temperature	-0.029***	-0.031***	-0.031***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
High Precipitation	0.013***	0.014***	0.014***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Low Precipitation	0.005***	0.003	0.002
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Squared High Precipitation	-0.000***	-0.000***	-0.000***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Squared Low Precipitation	0.000	0.000	0.000
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Geographical Characteristics	Yes	Yes	Yes
Primary Factors	Yes	Yes	No
Social Capital	Yes	No	No
Other	Yes	No	No
Observations	5128	5358	5358
Adjusted R-Square	0.432	0.390	0.389

Region	Federation Unit (FU)	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Region	Federation Unit (FU)	Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval		Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval
North	Acre (AC)	-17.7%	0.07	-20.7%	-14.7%	-20.9%	0.08	-24.4%	-17.4%
	Amapá (AP)	-83.5%	0.05	-86.4%	-80.6%	-83.1%	0.04	-85.7%	-80.5%
	Amazonas (AM)	-16.4%	0.25	-23.6%	-9.1%	-16.4%	0.23	-23.3%	-9.5%
	Pará (PA)	-46.2%	0.23	-50.1%	-42.3%	-43.6%	0.27	-48.2%	-39.0%
	Rondônia (RO)	-20.3%	0.05	-21.7%	-18.9%	-22.2%	0.06	-23.9%	-20.5%
	Roraima (RR)	-53.6%	0.10	-59.1%	-48.1%	-51.7%	0.10	-57.5%	-45.8%
	Tocantins (TO)	-21.8%	0.16	-24.7%	-18.9%	-16.4%	0.18	-19.8%	-13.0%
Northeast	Alagoas (AL)	-46.8%	0.09	-48.8%	-44.8%	-49.4%	0.09	-51.3%	-47.5%
	Bahia (BA)	-49.5%	0.10	-50.5%	-48.5%	-51.5%	0.08	-52.3%	-50.6%
	Ceará (CE)	-5.4%	0.30	-9.7%	-1.1%	-19.8%	0.27	-23.7%	-15.8%
	Maranhão (MA)	-19.0%	0.30	-23.2%	-14.9%	-22.5%	0.28	-26.4%	-18.7%
	Paraíba (PB)	-39.6%	0.10	-40.9%	-38.3%	-46.5%	0.08	-47.5%	-45.4%
	Pernambuco (PE)	-42.3%	0.10	-43.7%	-40.8%	-47.6%	0.07	-48.5%	-46.6%
	Piauí (PI)	-7.5%	0.28	-11.3%	-3.7%	-17.3%	0.27	-21.0%	-13.7%
	Rio Grande do Norte (RN)	-24.1%	0.17	-26.8%	-21.4%	-34.9%	0.14	-37.2%	-32.6%
	Sergipe (SE)	-52.8%	0.14	-56.2%	-49.4%	-53.2%	0.12	-56.1%	-50.3%
Southeast	Espírito Santo (ES)	-13.7%	0.60	-27.4%	0.0%	-12.7%	0.54	-25.0%	-0.4%
	Minas Gerais (MG)	-26.2%	0.21	-27.7%	-24.8%	-26.0%	0.25	-27.7%	-24.3%
	Rio de Janeiro (RJ)	48.8%	0.70	34.1%	63.6%	34.0%	0.56	22.0%	46.0%
	São Paulo (SP)	66.9%	0.48	63.1%	70.8%	104.7%	0.77	98.4%	111.0%
Midwest	Goiás (GO)	-30.8%	0.18	-33.3%	-28.2%	-26.7%	0.24	-30.1%	-23.3%
	Mato Grosso (MT)	-4.3%	0.28	-9.3%	0.6%	5.2%	0.37	-1.3%	11.7%
	Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)	121.2%	0.71	104.8%	137.7%	232.4%	1.09	207.2%	257.6%
South	Paraná (PR)	144.1%	0.99	134.2%	154.0%	210.5%	1.71	193.4%	227.6%
	Rio Grande do Sul (RS)	87.5%	0.74	80.8%	94.3%	126.8%	1.05	117.2%	136.3%
	Santa Catarina (SC)	121.5%	0.72	112.9%	130.1%	154.6%	0.91	143.7%	165.6%

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-42%	-18%	-	-23%	-	-31%	-2%	-6%	10%	4%	92%	18%	-	-13%	-26%	-22%	-13%	-	-	-	-25%
AP	7%	-	-	30%*	-	-57%	14%	-	-	64%	-	8%	-	-56%	-	-73%	-72%	-	-	-	-59%
AM	-23%	11%	-	47%	-	-31%	14%	-	23%	8%	97%	-19%	-	-11%	-56%	-26%	-22%	-	-	-	24%
PA	-14%	-38%	-47%	3-*	-	-53%	10%	-74%	19%	14%	22%	7%	-14%	4%	42%	-55%	-23%	-23%	33%	-	-14%
RO	-54%	-9%	-	31%	-	-41%	1%	-	37%	7%	92%	14%	73%	-3%	-	-43%	-14%	-42%	-43%	-	-10%
RR	11%*	-59%	-	30%*	-	-69%	-66%	-	-76%	42%	-	22%	-	9%	-	-54%	-	-	27%*	-	43%
TO	-18%	-	-42%	-74%	-	89%	-7%	-	75%	2%	55%*	-47%	-	30%	-	-53%	-8%	-24%	-	-	40%*
AL	2-	-44%	-12%	-21%	-	-56%	5%	-71%	-18%	1%	-42%	34%	-	-28%	-49%	-29%	-37%	-	13%	-	-22%
BA	2%	-46%	-37%	-79%	-70%	-22%	22%	-77%	40%	17%	-39%	-17%	-41%	-33%	-29%	-29%	-41%	-27%	41%	-	9%
EC	-3%	-35%	1%	-58%	-	-28%	6%	13%	18%	2%	-8%	1%	23%	-1%	-25%	27%	-8%	-	4%	-	-15%
MA	1%	-46%	68%	11%	-	9%	-2%	-	22%	7%	-	-6%	-	-4%	-	-	-13%	-33%	-	-	36%
PB	-14%	-35%	-27%	-77%	-68%	-32%	3%	-34%	8%	-4%	-2%	18%	45%*	-20%	-53%	-20%	-30%	-	6%	-	-1%
PE	-3%	-34%	-37%	-76%	-50%	-14%	22%	-78%	45%	5%	-23%	35%	-7%	-27%	-44%	-31%	-36%	-8%	27%	-	-11%
PI	28%	-	30%	46%	-	63%	20%	-55%	63%	3%	-	-20%	-	10%	-28%	-8%	-9%	-36%	-5%	-	63%
RN	2%	-23%	-15%	-71%	-	-56%	2%	49%	13%	-9%	-	24%	45%*	-13%	-47%	-16%	-22%	11%	-4%	-96%	-26%
IF	23%	-	36%	-61%	-	-52%	-4%	-	-24%	-	-49%	26%	-1%	-31%	-53%	-33%	-45%	-	66%	-	-33%
ES	-36%	-28%	-	-46%	-57%	-14%	-32%	-	47%	15%	-42%	7%	-56%	-35%	-	21%	-45%	-	24%	-	-28%
MG	-26%	-18%	-	-16%	-48%	4%	5%	-51%	98%	19%	3%	-7%	-47%	-30%	-16%	-29%	-30%	-40%	-5%	-	9%
RJ	-44%	-27%	-	16%	-	2%	-32%	-	-	18%	-31%	11%	-43%	-38%	-	20%	-29%	-	-12%	-	-38%
SP	-58%	68%	-	-55%	100%	32%*	-59%	3%	69%	7%	52%	-46%	-39%	4%	66%*	-25%	19%	-11%	-47%	43%*	40%*
GO	6%	-21%	-	-3%	-	25%	77%	-	96%	8%	55%*	-22%	81%	11%	-11%	-47%	-19%	-40%	-68%	-	95%
MT	-62%	8%	-53%	-11%	-	-	-25%	-20%	50%	1%	55%*	-43%	-	19%	-	-55%	3%	-46%	-27%	-	40%*
MS	-79%	45%*	-	-9-	-	32%*	-55%	-40%	48%*	6%	55%*	-74%	-36%	13%*	-	-63%	29%	2%	-55%	43%*	40%*
PR	-70%	45%*	-2%	-54%	16%	32%*	13%	44%	48%*	4%	36%	-52%	-1%	-10%	100%	-26%	19%	1%	-35%	43%*	40%*
RS	-57%	93%	-	-17%	-55%	57%	15%*	-	86%	-4%	58%	-38%	-9%	6%	38%	16%	17%	5%	-39%	43%*	40%*
SC	-75%	45%*	-	-37%	-11%	41%	15%*	-	96%	-9%	41%	-29%	2%	-14%	83%	46%	6%	4%	-41%	43%*	40%*

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-51%	-16%	-	-49%	-	-26%	-9%	10%	23%	-1%	69%*	19%	-	-8%	-5%	-29%	-9%	-	-	-	1%
AP	3%	-	-	39%	-	-43%	2%	-	-	61%	-	-3%	-	-51%	-	-76%	-70%	-	-	-	-38%
AM	-28%	21%	-	27%	-	-21%	19%	-	34%	4%	69%*	-17%	-	2%	-36%	-30%	-17%	-	-	-	46%
PA	-20%	-24%	-63%	23%*	-	-26%	-10%	-73%	43%	16%	67%	-13%	-22%	15%	-22%	-63%	-22%	-27%	25%	-	49%
RO	-61%	-2%	-	-15%	-	-31%	-11%	-	57%	2%	69%*	7%	88%	7%	-	-52%	-8%	-51%	-39%	-	53%
RR	70%	-57%	-	23%*	-	-76%	-73%	-	-78%	29%	-	44%	-	21%	-	-56%	16%	-	54%*	-	44%*
TO	-42%	-	-51%	-83%	-	54%*	-40%	-	56%*	6%	69%*	-56%	-	49%	-	-65%	-4%	-36%	-	-	44%*
AL	-31%	-48%	-32%	-67%	-	-61%	-10%	-87%	2%	8%	-62%	61%	-	-48%	-16%	-27%	-46%	-	88%	-	-58%
BA	-48%	-46%	-54%	-88%	51%*	-37%	8%	-92%	75%	22%	-58%	-3%	-76%	-51%	19%	-31%	-50%	-44%	54%*	-	-32%
EC	-7%	-44%	-37%	-73%	-	-9%	17%	-51%	50%	11%	-23%	2%	-57%	-19%	44%	19%	-22%	-	65%	-	-27%
MA	-6%	-48%	-44%	-28%	-	72%	-1%	-	58%	14%	-	-25%	-	-3%	-	-20%	-20%	-48%	-	-	44%*
PB	-38%	-49%	-33%	-85%	51%*	-30%	-3%	-76%	35%	5%	-37%	33%	-25%	-41%	-20%	-16%	-41%	-	76%	-	-33%
PE	-40%	-39%	-48%	-88%	51%*	-25%	10%	-92%	92%	10%	-47%	50%	-63%	-47%	-19%	-32%	-47%	-33%	54%*	-	-43%
PI	-4%	-	16%	3%	-	54%*	-3%	-83%	56%*	11%	-	-34%	-	-4%	19%	-22%	-18%	-50%	58%	-	98%
RN	-18%	-36%	-24%	-87%	-	-50%	-3%	-38%	47%	-	-	36%	-5%	-33%	-11%	-14%	-33%	-13%	63%	11%	-46%
IF	-33%	-	-1%	-77%	-	-60%	-12%	-	-6%	7%	-68%	55%	-61%	-50%	-17%	-31%	-51%	-	54%*	-	-64%
ES	-71%	-34%	-	-68%	70%	-33%	-38%	-	96%	26%	-49%	28%	-75%	-49%	-	4%	-53%	-	60%	-	-55%
MG	-48%	-19%	-	-27%	-28%	9%	-16%	-83%	56%*	27%	-4%	-2%	-68%	-45%	7%	-35%	-35%	-50%	46%	-	17%
RJ	-68%	-34%	-	-36%	-	-13%	-37%	-	-	29%	-38%	29%	-69%	-52%	-	1%	-42%	-	5%	-	-62%
SP	-76%	22%*	-	-73%	51%*	54%*	-74%	-21%	56%*	13%	94%	-59%	-50%	5%	41%*	-40%	22%	-15%	-53%	11%*	44%*
GO	-26%	-16%	-	-42%	-	58%	57%	-	56%*	10%	69%*	-31%	12%	-	35%	-57%	-18%	-48%	-65%	-	44%*
MT	-72%	23%	-65%	-24%	-	66%	-44%	-11%	71%	-1%	69%*	-54%	-	39%	-	-65%	16%	-54%	-22%	-	44%*
MS	-89%	22%*	-	-96%	-	54%*	-72%	-48%	56%*	1%	69%*	-82%	-40%	16%*	-	-73%	55%	10%	-61%	11%*	44%*
PR	-82%	22%*	-18%	-70%	31%	54%*	-5%	14%	56%*	7%	45%	-63%	-13%	-12%	95%	-43%	22%	3%	-42%	11%*	44%*
RS	-79%	22%*	-	-29%	-58%	73%	91%	-	98%	-	84%	-47%	-23%	7%	42%	-	17%	9%	-49%	11%*	44%*
SC	-89%	22%*	-	-46%	-18%	45%	91%	-	56%*	-3%	55%	-34%	-7%	-18%	66%	25%	1%	3%	-51%	11%*	44%*

Control Variables	Dependent Variable: log (Aggregate Agricultural Productivity)
Control Variables	Step (3)	Step (2)	Step (1)
High Temperature	-2.269***	-2.206***	-2.294***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.338)	(0.338)	(0.343)
Low Temperature	0.837***	0.907***	0.984***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.149)	(0.135)	(0.131)
Squared High Temperature	0.0463***	0.0448***	0.0466***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.00699)	(0.00700)	(0.00713)
Squared Low Temperature	-0.0206***	-0.0220***	-0.0239***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.00310)	(0.00284)	(0.00280)
High Precipitation	0.0115***	0.0109***	0.0118***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.00240)	(0.00243)	(0.00240)
Low Precipitation	-0.00673**	-0.00876***	-0.00774***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.00273)	(0.00268)	(0.00276)
Squared High Precipitation	-0.0000229***	-0.0000209***	-0.0000235***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.00000560)	(0.00000564)	(0.00000562)
Squared Low Precipitation	0.0000233**	0.0000320***	0.0000283**
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.0000110)	(0.0000108)	(0.0000111)
Geographical Characteristics	Yes	Yes	Yes
Primary Factors	Yes	Yes	No
Social Capital	Yes	No	No
Other	Yes	No	No
Observations	5119	5324	5324
Adjusted R-Square	0.293	0.266	0.261

Region	Federation Unit (FU)	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Region	Federation Unit (FU)	Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval		Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval
North	Acre (AC)	-14.1%	0.02	-15.1%	-13.0%	-12.8%	0.03	-13.9%	-11.6%
	Amapá (AP)	-65.3%	0.08	-70.3%	-60.3%	-65.1%	0.06	-69.3%	-61.0%
	Amazonas (AM)	-15.4%	0.24	-22.9%	-7.9%	-13.1%	0.22	-20.1%	-6.1%
	Pará (PA)	-28.5%	0.18	-31.5%	-25.4%	-27.8%	0.23	-31.8%	-23.9%
	Rondônia (RO)	-14.2%	0.10	-16.9%	-11.5%	-10.1%	0.12	-13.4%	-6.8%
	Roraima (RR)	-54.8%	0.12	-61.6%	-48.0%	-50.4%	0.17	-59.6%	-41.2%
	Tocantins (TO)	5.5%	0.14	3.0%	8.0%	4.2%	0.18	0.9%	7.5%
Northeast	Alagoas (AL)	-14.6%	0.17	-18.0%	-11.1%	-36.1%	0.12	-38.5%	-33.8%
	Bahia (BA)	-35.0%	0.06	-35.6%	-34.4%	-47.4%	0.04	-47.8%	-47.0%
	Ceará (CE)	4.3%	0.21	1.2%	7.4%	-18.8%	0.18	-21.4%	-16.3%
	Maranhão (MA)	-10.0%	0.11	-11.6%	-8.4%	-21.1%	0.11	-22.7%	-19.6%
	Paraíba (PB)	-4.8%	0.10	-6.1%	-3.4%	-27.7%	0.08	-28.8%	-26.7%
	Pernambuco (PE)	-26.8%	0.13	-28.7%	-24.9%	-41.6%	0.11	-43.1%	-40.0%
	Piauí (PI)	-12.6%	0.17	-15.0%	-10.3%	-27.5%	0.14	-29.4%	-25.5%
	Rio Grande do Norte (RN)	-7.2%	0.15	-9.6%	-4.9%	-30.2%	0.10	-31.8%	-28.7%
	Sergipe (SE)	-27.0%	0.10	-29.4%	-24.6%	-40.8%	0.07	-42.4%	-39.1%
Southeast	Espírito Santo (ES)	-12.9%	0.24	-18.2%	-7.6%	-30.6%	0.17	-34.3%	-26.8%
	Minas Gerais (MG)	-21.1%	0.18	-22.3%	-19.9%	-24.2%	0.24	-25.9%	-22.6%
	Rio de Janeiro (RJ)	22.3%	0.30	15.7%	28.8%	-1.6%	0.23	-6.5%	3.2%
	São Paulo (SP)	26.6%	0.31	24.1%	29.1%	48.0%	0.50	44.0%	52.0%
Midwest	Goiás (GO)	-15.9%	0.15	-18.1%	-13.8%	-9.3%	0.23	-12.5%	-6.1%
	Mato Grosso (MT)	-3.2%	0.19	-6.4%	0.0%	7.6%	0.27	3.0%	12.3%
	Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)	77.1%	0.46	66.8%	87.4%	151.6%	0.74	135.0%	168.3%
South	Paraná (PR)	49.2%	0.52	44.0%	54.3%	76.9%	0.89	67.9%	85.8%
	Rio Grande do Sul (RS)	33.5%	0.26	31.2%	35.9%	49.7%	0.41	46.0%	53.4%
	Santa Catarina (SC)	24.5%	0.32	20.6%	28.3%	26.6%	0.36	22.3%	30.9%

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-61%	-9%	-	-71%	-	19%	1%	-	4%	3%	-	2%	-	-23%	-1%	-46%	-10%	-	-	-	7%
AP	-	-	-	-68%	-	-24%	34%*	-	-	-10%	-	-	-	-	-	-75%	-64%	-	-	-	32%*
AM	-37%	12%	-	50%*	-	-10%	91%	-	-	-6%	-	-12%	-	-20%	-	-33%	-14%	-	-	-	-24%
PA	-22%	-45%	49%*	46%	-	-29%	20%	-	-13%	-11%	-44%	13%	-	-1%	-41%	-59%	-34%	-9%	-77%	-	19%
RO	-80%	-	-	-7-	-	2%	7%	-	-59%	-3%	-	8%	-	-23%	-	-61%	-28%	-1%	21%	-	10%
RR	37%*	-	-	50%*	-	-39%	-62%	-	-	-12%	-	14%	-	-21%	-	-51%	-48%	-35%	-	-	32%*
TO	-37%	-	-97%	-35%	-	30%*	-59%	-	19%	-13%	-	58%	-	-9%	-	-10%	-49%	-6%	-	-	64%
AL	37%*	-	-17%	-46%	-	-52%	66%	-63%	-34%	-10%	18%	-11%	-	-31%	-23%	-35%	-19%	-	-	-	32%*
BA	24%	-34%	-11%	-44%	-	5%	34%*	-87%	25%	18%	-89%	5%	70%	-39%	28%	-27%	-51%	-15%	-20%	-	-32%
EC	10%	-32%	49%*	50%*	-	-35%	18%	47%*	-41%	-2%	-	-7%	27%	-	93%	2%	7%	-9%	40%	-	-20%
MA	-12%	-	59%	-21%	-	46%	1%	-	12%	-3%	-	38%	-	-7%	-	14%	-29%	-9%	-	-	37%
PB	-2%	-6%	-4%	-42%	79%	-3%	61%	-40%	16%	-8%	-22%	-7%	8%	-25%	-36%	-29%	-12%	-	54%*	14%	-14%
PE	14%	-15%	-35%	-59%	-13%	12%	34%*	-85%	24%	7%	12%	2%	45%	-35%	-	-33%	-22%	-	90%	-	-20%
PI	60%	-10%	-41%	88%	-	55%	-	-62%	-11%	1%	-	-4%	-	-5%	-	21%	-30%	-12%	-28%	-	-12%
RN	28%	-	39%	-	-	-37%	34%*	1%	-	-10%	-	-9%	-34%	-14%	-35%	-31%	10%	-	68%	12%	36%
IF	88%	-	-	-35%	-	-45%	34%*	-	-42%	-6%	-18%	-13%	-	-38%	-36%	-34%	-24%	-	-	-	-9%
ES	-38%	-21%	-	43%	15%	-5%	-65%	-	38%	12%	-66%	-2%	38%*	-49%	-	4%	-38%	-	-13%	-	-23%
MG	-21%	-12%	-	-48%	44%*	52%	-63%	-28%	24%	-1%	26%	26%	-54%	-31%	-25%	-29%	-43%	-4%	-44%	84%	-19%
RJ	-48%	-33%	-	13%	-	14%	-59%	-	-	14%	-23%	-13%	-	-29%	-	-7%	-21%	-	-53%	-	-29%
SP	-59%	15%	-	-43%	44%*	30%*	-97%	94%	62%	11%	-21%	43%	-7%	-	61%*	23%	-35%	10%	-40%	5%	76%
GO	-16%	-25%	-	-57%	-	60%	77%	-39%	-8%	-2%	-9%	38%	-93%	-32%	-	-26%	-47%	-4%	-52%	75%	2%
MT	-84%	4%	-	67%	-	30%*	-63%	-31%	-41%	-10%	19%*	70%	-	-31%	-	-57%	-29%	1%	51%	-	32%*
MS	-86%	85%	-	-12%	-	30%*	-97%	-59%	54%	-26%	-	28%*	-	11%	-	35%	-63%	4%	-	43%*	32%*
PR	-82%	71%	-35%	-8%	44%*	30%*	-85%	-14%	29%*	-17%	-12%	58%	38%*	7%	61%*	47%	-39%	14%	54%*	74%	40%
RS	-47%	-	-	-15%	40%	-10%	3%	-	29%*	-4%	-20%	22%	38%*	18%	61%*	77%	-16%	12%	54%*	36%	-17%
SC	-80%	-	-	41%	-36%	-19%	-41%	-	29%*	24%	-20%	-2%	38%*	9%	61%*	-	-13%	16%	54%*	-2%	-45%

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-70%	-1%	-	-86%	-	58%	-22%	-	13%	-1%	-	14%	-	-24%	46%*	-51%	-16%	-	-	-	32%
AP	-	-	-	-78%	-	1%	44%*	-	-	-12%	-	-	-	-	-	-75%	-69%	-	-	-	33%*
AM	-42%	26%	-	48%	-	5%	31%	-	-	-10%	-	-2%	-	-19%	-	-37%	-22%	-	-	-	-6%
PA	-33%	-37%	-16%	6%	-	10%	-38%	-	-24%	-9%	-70%	36%	-	-16%	-70%	-60%	-50%	-8%	-78%	-	19%
RO	-85%	10%	-	-86%	-	44%	-27%	-	-58%	-8%	-	25%	-	-24%	-	-65%	-36%	-	30%	-	48%
RR	17%*	-	-	41%*	-	-25%	-72%	-	-	-20%	-	22%	-	-14%	-	-58%	-47%	-35%	-	-	33%*
TO	-66%	-	-99%	-56%	-	24%*	-87%	-	4%	-12%	-	92%	-	-18%	-	-25%	-63%	-5%	-	-	33%*
AL	27%	-	62%*	-53%	-	-36%	34%	-55%	-32%	7%	54%	-12%	-	-49%	2%	-54%	-25%	-	-	-	29%
BA	-48%	-38%	62%*	-58%	-	23%	72%	-89%	23%	30%	-87%	1%	53%*	-55%	91%	-54%	-57%	-16%	-18%	-	-41%
EC	-1%	-41%	-20%	48%	-	-9%	-3%	88%*	-23%	14%	-	-2%	66%	-22%	46%*	-11%	-21%	-10%	-9%	-	-35%
MA	-33%	-	-46%	-34%	-	24%*	-49%	-	16%	6%	-	61%	-	-19%	-	-	-49%	-10%	-	-	58%
PB	-35%	-23%	70%	-58%	-78%	22%	17%	-66%	23%	9%	-15%	-8%	82%	-45%	37%	-43%	-32%	-	56%*	81%	-31%
PE	-33%	-19%	50%	-62%	-92%	42%	86%	-84%	42%	23%	9%	-1%	53%*	-53%	-	-51%	-36%	-	77%	-	-35%
PI	6%	-18%	-26%	80%	-	24%*	-	-81%	-10%	10%	-	13%	-	-25%	-	5%	-50%	-14%	-62%	-	-8%
RN	-4%	-	65%	-	-	-18%	58%	-27%	-	5%	-	-9%	-8%	-35%	37%	-43%	-14%	-	8%	81%	-11%
IF	-17%	-	-	-53%	-	-35%	44%*	-	-42%	14%	32%	-18%	-	-53%	-16%	-55%	-28%	-	-	-	-29%
ES	-77%	-30%	-	69%	-77%	6%	-68%	-	37%	25%	-62%	-9%	53%*	-61%	-	-42%	-46%	-	-17%	-	-42%
MG	-54%	-13%	-	-62%	93%	24%*	-83%	-55%	31%*	5%	22%	45%	-44%	-45%	18%	-49%	-54%	-4%	-53%	52%*	-9%
RJ	-77%	-37%	-	4%	-	27%	-59%	-	-	28%	-26%	-19%	-	-47%	-	-45%	-34%	-	-58%	-	-46%
SP	-84%	27%	-	-51%	68%*	24%*	-99%	88%	67%	20%	-39%	73%	12%	-10%	46%*	16%	-48%	11%	-48%	31%	33%*
GO	-49%	-24%	-	-75%	-	24%*	11%	-72%	-2%	-1%	-16%	67%	-92%	-41%	-	-42%	-57%	-3%	-58%	52%*	40%
MT	-91%	18%	-	17%	-	24%*	-81%	-71%	-43%	-13%	29%*	45%*	-	-32%	-	-62%	-40%	3%	85%	-	33%*
MS	-93%	33%*	-	-22%	-	24%*	-99%	-83%	52%	-37%	-	45%*	-	22%	-	29%	-69%	8%	-	52%*	33%*
PR	-90%	86%	-43%	-6%	68%*	24%*	-89%	-51%	31%*	-26%	-15%	91%	53%*	-2%	46%*	42%	-51%	15%	82%	52%*	33%*
RS	-79%	-	-	13%	97%	-4%	-33%	-	31%*	-8%	-27%	31%	53%*	14%	46%*	65%	-27%	13%	56%*	56%	6%
SC	-93%	-	-	83%	13%	-18%	-59%	-	31%*	31%	-20%	-4%	53%*	-1%	89%	-29%	-24%	17%	56%*	10%	-45%

Variable	Number of observations	Average	Standard Deviation	Min.	Max.
Temperature (monthly)	5364	22,23	3,38	13,82	29,02
Precipitation (monthly)	5364	114,74	42,2	32,68	292,77
Spring/Summer Temperature	5364	23,86	2,46	16,49	29,57
Autumn/Winter Temperature	5364	20,61	4,37	11,16	28,48
Spring/Summer Precipitation	5364	134,33	57,12	31,78	386,78
Autumn/Winter Precipitation	5364	95,15	49,2	9	281,15
Altitude	5364	413,44	269,7	0	1495,63
Latitude	5364	-16,26	9,41	-33,51	3,88
Longitude	5364	-46,58	7,06	-72,91	-34,81
Machinery and Equipment (R$/Ha)	5364	6.364*	11.700*	12	184.000*
Labour	5364	0,08	0,31	0	320
Associated with class entities	5364	0,15	1,58	0	1830,7
Associated with cooperatives	5364	0,04	0,13	0	59,74
Improvements (area)	5364	397,61	639,01	0	10851
Facilities (R$/Ha)	5364	11.400*	16.400*	15	203.000*
Irrigated Area	5364	287,22	860,34	0	13969,15

Variable	Number of observations	Average	Standard Deviation	Min.	Max.
Temperature (monthly)	5327	22,01	2,47	13,83	29,03
Precipitation (monthly)	5327	128,27	25,31	32,68	292,78
Spring/Summer Temperature	5327	23,67	1,78	16,50	29,57
Autumn/Winter Temperature	5327	20,35	3,29	11,16	28,48
Spring/Summer Precipitation	5327	179,53	55,19	31,78	386,79
Autumn/Winter Precipitation	5327	77,00	44,26	9,01	302,70
Altitude	5327	507,30	246,89	0,00	1495,64
Latitude	5327	-19,07	6,43	-33,69	4,48
Longitude	5327	-50,33	5,27	-72,92	-34,81
Machinery and Equipment (R$/Ha)	5327	16.400*	36.600*	52	654.000*
Labour	5327	0,01	0,04	0	12,2
Associated with cooperatives	5327	0,13	0,47	0	145,85
Associated with class entities	5327	0,14	0,90	0	174,37
Improvements (area)	5327	794,11	1603,33	0	66.740
Facilities (R$/Ha)	5327	20.200*	38.800*	2	48.600*
Irrigated Area	5327	4897,5	9175,9	0	69.843

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E-mail: sober@sober.org.br

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[1] Source: Own elaboration based on the results of the econometric model. Note: Robust standard error to heteroscedasticity in parentheses. p-value <0.01, ** p-value <0.05, *p-value <0.10.