O papel dos movimentos de capitais no balanço de pagamentos da América Latina em 1990-2019

BURACHIK, GUSTAVO

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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 42 (3) • Jul-Sep 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572022-3355 copiar

O papel dos movimentos de capitais no balanço de pagamentos da América Latina em 1990-2019

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

RESUMO

Estudamos os dados do balanço de pagamentos de um conjunto de países latino--americanos entre 1990 e 2019. Pretendíamos quantificar os principais itens de receita e despesa em moeda estrangeira. Estávamos particularmente interessados em estudar a magnitude e o papel dos fluxos financeiros, seja como fonte de recursos externos, seja como despesa. A análise foi realizada em duas dimensões: seção transversal (para uma amostra de 11 nações) para todo o período e ao longo do tempo para as três décadas cobertas pelos dados. Este estudo oferece uma base empírica para reavaliar a visão tradicional que impõe uma “restrição externa” ao crescimento do comércio exterior. Em contrapartida, os dados aqui analisados sugerem que os itens relacionados aos fluxos financeiros são os principais responsáveis pela vulnerabilidade externa desses países.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
Balanço de pagamentos; Lei de Thirlwall; crises econômicas; economias latino-americanas; movimentos internacionais de capitais

	Export or Import of capital				Sources/Uses
	Export or Import of capital					Primary income
	Inflow	Outflow	Reserves	Net Exp/Imp = CA + EO (a)	Trade balance	Total	Credit	Debit	Secondary income
Germany	7.7	11.0	0.0	3.3	3.7	1.0	6.0	4.9	-1.4
Austria (b)	6.4	8.7	0.1	2.4	3.4	0.0	8.6	8.7	-0.9
Netherlands	28.0	33.8	0.0	5.9	6.9	0.4	22.5	22.2	-1.4
Belgium (b)	15.9	17.1	0.0	1.1	1.1	1.5	15.9	14.4	-1.5
Denmark	7.3	10.4	0.9	3.1	5.5	-0.2	9.2	9.4	-1.4
Finland	12.9	14.5	0.1	1.5	3.6	-1.1	5.7	6.8	-0.8
France	10.5	10.6	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.4	6.6	5.3	-1.5
Italy	6.1	6.2	0.0	0.2	1.4	-0.4	3.8	4.2	-0.8
Norway	9.1	17.3	0.6	8.2	9.7	0.4	6.7	6.3	-1.2
Japan (b)	3.2	5.1	0.9	1.9	0.5	2.6	3.7	1.2	-0.2
UK	17.1	14.3	0.2	-2.8	-1.5	-0.2	11.3	11.5	-0.9
USA	6.5	3.7	0.0	-2.8	-2.9	0.6	3.9	3.3	-0.5
Average	10.9	12.7	0.2	1.8	2.7	0.5	8.7	8.2	-1.1
Latin America (16) (c)	5.1	2.3	0.8	-1.8	-0.2	-2.7	0.9	3.6	1.2
Latin America (11) (d)	6.1	3.1	0.9	-2.0	0.8	-3.4	1.1	4.6	0.7
(a) Capital exporters are positive and capital importers are negative. (b) Data for Austria available only from 2005; for Belgium, from 2002; and for Japan, from 1996. (c) Countries in Table 2. (d) Countries with cyclical trade balances in Table 2

	Goods	Services	Total
Countries with cyclical trade balances
Argentina	70	0	53
Bolivia	40	0	37
Brazil	77	0	57
Chile	87	7	73
Colombia	57	3	20
Costa Rica	0	100	27
Ecuador	67	0	33
Paraguay	97	7	90
Peru	60	0	43
Uruguay	47	93	63
Venezuela	90	0	80
Countries with systematic trade deficit
El Salvador	0	93	0
Guatemala	0	67	0
Honduras	0	90	0
Nicaragua	0	50	0
Mexico	10	27	7

	Income				Expenses
	Total (a)	Remittances	Capital inflows	Trade surplus	Total (a)	Trade deficit	Primary income	Capital flight (b)	Reserves (c)	Remittances
Argentina	5.9	0.2	4.8	0.9	5.6		2.6	2.7	0.4
Bolivia	10.7	4.4	6.4		8.4	1.3	3.5	2.1	1.4
Brazil	5.0	0.2	4.7	0.1	5.0		2.4	1.7	0.9
Chile	14.1	0.9	10.4	2.7	14.0		5.4	7.3	1.3
Colombia	8.0	1.9	6.1		8.1	1.8	3.1	2.2	1.0
Costa Rica	8.5	1.0	7.6		8.4	0.9	4.0	2.3	1.1
Ecuador	7.7	3.3	4.4		7.6	1.0	2.8	0, 4	3.3
Paraguay	7.3	1.9	1.7	3.7	6.2		4.9	0.0	1.3
Peru	8.9	1.9	6.2	0.8	9.2		5.5	1, 5	2.2
Uruguay	8.2	0.4	5.8	2.0	8.5		3.7	3.2	1.6
Venezuela (d)	9.0		2.7	6.4	7.8		2.1	4, 9	0.6	0.2
Total	6.4	0.6	5.2	0.7	6.3		2.9	2.4	1.0
(a) Errors and omissions explain the difference between the total income and the total expenses. (b) Only the private sector; hence, the difference with data in Table 1. (c) It includes small amounts of public assets other than reserves. (d) Data available up to 2016.

	Income				Expenses
	Total (a)	Remittances	NTR	Trade surplus	Total (a)	Trade deficit	NTR	Reserves (c)	Remittances
Argentina	1.1	0.2		0.9	0.9		0.5	0.4
Bolivia	5.0	4.4	0.6		2.7	1.3		1.4
Brazil	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.1	0.9			0.9
Chile	3.7	0.9		2.7	3.6		2.3	1.3
Colombia	2.7	1, 9	0.8		2.8	1.8		1.0
Costa Rica	2.2	1.0	1.2		2.0	0.9		1.1
Ecuador	4.4	3.3	1.1		4.3	1.0		3.3
Paraguay	5.6	1.9		3.7	4.5		3.2	1.3
Peru	2, 7	1.9		0.8	3.0		0.8	2.2
Uruguay	2.4	0.4		2.0	2.7		1.1	1.6
Venezuela (d)	6.4			6.4	5.0		4, 4	0.6	0.2
Total	1.2	0.6		0.7	1.1		0.1	1.0
(a) (c) (d) See notes in Table 3.

	Trade balance	Remittances	Trade balance + remittances	Variation in reserves
Argentina	-0.83 ***	-0.02	-0.83 ***	0.74 ***
Bolivia	-0.19	-0.58 ***	-0.38 **	0.17
Brazil	-0.63 ***	0.30	-0.61 ***	0.64 ***
Chile	-0.93 ***	-0.59 ***	-0.92 ** *	-0.14
Colombia	-0.90 ***	0.34 *	-0.89 ***	0.26
Costa Rica	-0.83 ***	0.06	-0.81 ***	0.50 * **
Ecuador	-0.36 **	-0.54 ***	-0.76 ***	0.13
Paraguay	-0.72 ***	-0.61 ***	-0.79 ***	0, 01
Peru	-0.46 ***	-0.40 **	-0.51 ***	0.46 **
Uruguay	-0.72 ***	-0.44 **	-0.72 ***	0, 76 ***
Venezuela	-0.88 ***	0.48 ***	-0.87 ***	-0.33 *
* Statistically significant at 1%, at 5%, * at 10%.

	Total income	Gross capital inflows
Argentina	0.69 ***	0.61 ***
Bolivia	0.78 ***	0.78 ***
Brazil	0.92 ***	0.91 ***
Chile	0.88 ***	0.85 ***
Colombia	0.85 ***	0.87 ***
Costa Rica	0.83 ***	0.89 ***
Ecuador	-0.19	0.31 *
Paraguay	0.39 **	0.59 ***
Peru	0.59 ***	0.48 ***
Uruguay	0.58 ***	0.62 ***
Venezuela	0.83 ***	0.71 ***
* Statistically significant at 1%, at 5%, * at 10%

	1992-6	2002-10	2017-8
Gross capital inflow	5.0	5.3	5.0
Rent payments	-1.9	-3.5	-3.1
Capital flight	-1.2	-2.8	-2.2
NTR	1.9	-1.0	-0.3
NTR/gross capital inflow (%)	38

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E-mail: cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br

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[TFN1] Source: All data processed by the author, based on IMF statistics.