UM CASO PARA POLÍTICA INDUSTRIAL? RESULTADOS DE PREVISÕES PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA (2016-2025) A PARTIR DE UM MODELO DESAGREGADO DE CRESCIMENTO RESTRINGIDO PELO BP

Rodrigues, Cryslãine Flavia da Silva; Lourenço, André Luís Cabral de

Cryslãine Flavia da Silva Rodrigues

Ph.D student in Development Economics by the Postgraduate Program in Economics, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7995-2172

André Luís Cabral de Lourenço

Professor at the Economics Department, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). Natal, RN, Brazil.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6374-7302

Correspondência para: Cryslãine Flavia da Silva Rodrigues Contato: crys-cg@hotmail.com

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
g*	3.40	3.66	3.78	3.87	3.90	3.69	3.48	3.27	3.23	3.19	3.55
π*	.42	3.56	3.47	3.50	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.50
i*	1.15	1.47	1.76	2.18	2.35	2.33	2.26	2.27	2.28	2.29	2.03
tt₁	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.94
tt₂	1.02	1.04	1.06	1.08	1.10	1.12	1.15	1.17	1.19	1.21	1.11
tt₃	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00

	ε₁	ε₂	ε₃	ξ₁	ξ₂	ξ₃
2016/2025	0.9163	0.9959	0.9161	2.1981	2.9059	2.0512
	η ₁	η ₂	η ₃	ψ ₁	ψ ₂	ψ ₃
2016/2025	-	-	-	-	-	- 0.7464

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
g _BP	0.75	3.04	2.21	2.97	1.27	0.65	0.46	0.41	0.77	0.72	1.32
g ₁	0.69	2.40	1.93	2.67	1.32	0.72	0.67	0.68	1.03	1.01	1.31
g ₂	0.65	2.89	1.92	2.63	1.10	0.69	0.58	0.49	0.77	0.67	1.23
g ₃	1.08	3.75	3.23	4.14	1.82	0.56	0.11	0.14	0.77	0.85	1.64

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
x ₁	3.12	3.36	3.46	3.54	3.57	3.38	3.19	3.00	2.96	2.92	3.25
x ₂	3.39	3.65	3.76	3.85	3.88	3.68	3.47	3.26	3.21	3.17	3.53
x ₃	3.11	3.36	3.46	3.54	3.57	3.38	3.19	3.00	2.96	2.92	3.25
m ₁	1.64	6.69	4.87	6.52	2.79	1.43	1.02	0.89	1.69	1.59	2.89
m ₂	2.17	8.84	6.43	8.62	3.69	1.89	1.35	1.18	2.24	2.10	3.81
m ₃	-18.53	8.19	1.85	5.54	4.13	5.10	8.75	7.85	7.96	6.98	3.46

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
â _0,1	3.56	4.84	4.49	5.05	4.03	3.58	3.55	3.55	3.81	3.80	4.02
â _0,2	-1.14	0.24	-0.36	0.08	-0.87	-1.12	-1.19	-1.24	-1.07	-1.13	-0.78
â _0,3	-1.24	0.60	0.25	0.87	-0.73	-1.59	-1.90	-1.88	-1.44	-1.39	-0.85
u	10.34	9.95	9.58	8.85	8.48	8.38	8.31	8.27	8.08	7.83	8.81
$\frac{{\hat{W}}_{1}}{p_{1}}$	2.60	0.16	1.30	2.96	2.58	3.85	2.44	1.83	1.58	1.61	2.09
$\frac{{\hat{W}}_{2}}{p_{2}}$	2.05	-0.64	0.50	1.81	1.99	3.24	1.88	1.22	0.84	0.78	1.36
$\frac{{\hat{W}}_{3}}{p_{3}}$	0.31	-0.44	0.05	1.05	-0.08	-0.20	-1.13	-1.34	-1.13	-1.02	-0.40

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
π	6.50	5.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.80
π₁	7.04	5.93	4.57	4.03	3.70	3.08	3.01	3.08	3.17	3.09	4.06
π₂	5.82	5.85	4.35	4.21	3.41	2.73	2.86	3.08	3.37	3.44	3.91
π₃	7.07	5.13	4.63	4.82	5.59	6.28	6.11	5.91	5.64	5.59	5.68
i	15.00	10.00	8.75	8.50	8.25	8.00	7.75	7.50	7.50	7.50	8.85
e	3.40	3.61	3.72	3.73	3.65	3.39	3.18	3.01	2.88	2.73	3.33
ω	-0.73	3.59	2.40	2.49	2.51	2.41	2.89	2.67	2.45	2.20	2.29

\frac{e_{t}}{e_{t + 1}^{e}} \equiv \frac{R_{t} - R_{t - 1} (1 + ê_{R}) - B C T_{t} - (ψ_{2, t} + f_{0} + f_{2} t) Y_{t}^{*}}{f_{1} [\frac{(1 + i_{t})}{(1 + i_{t}^{*}) (1 + I O F_{t}) (1 + ρ_{t}^{*})} + \frac{(1 + λ_{t - 1})}{(1 + λ_{t - 1}^{*}) (1 + ρ_{t}^{*})}] Y_{t}^{*}}

g_{B P} = \frac{(1 + g_{t}^{*}) (1 + π_{t}^{*}) - (1 + i_{M, t}^{*} + â_{k, t}) + \sum_{i = 1}^{3} χ_{i} [(1 + ε_{i} g_{t}^{*} + η_{i} {\hat{θ}}_{x, i, t - 1}) (1 + π_{x, i, t}^{*})] + γ_{t} - \sum_{i = 1}^{3} μ_{i} [(1 - ψ_{i} {\hat{θ}}_{m, i, t - 1}) (1 + π_{m, i, t}^{*})]}{\sum_{n = 1}^{3} μ_{i} ξ_{i} (1 + π_{m, i, t}^{*})}

π_{1} = P_{0, 1} (\hat{1 + t_{1}}) + P_{1, 1} {\hat{z}}_{1} + P_{2, 1} ({\hat{W}}_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{0, 1}) + P_{3, 1} (π_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{2, 1}) + P_{4, 1} (π_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{3, 1}) + P_{5, 1} (π_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{1, 1}) + P_{6, 1} ({\hat{e}}_{t} + π_{m, 1}^{*} - {\hat{a}}_{m, 1})

π_{2} = P_{0, 2} (\hat{1 + t_{2}}) + P_{1, 2} {\hat{z}}_{2} + P_{2, 2} ({\hat{W}}_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{0, 2}) + P_{3, 2} (π_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{1, 2}) + P_{4, 2} (π_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{3, 2}) + P_{5, 2} (π_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{2, 2}) + P_{6, 2} ({\hat{e}}_{t} + π_{m, 2}^{*} - {\hat{a}}_{m, 2})

π_{3} = P_{0, 3} (\hat{1 + t_{3}}) + P_{1, 3} {\hat{z}}_{3} + P_{2, 3} ({\hat{W}}_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{0, 3}) + P_{3, 3} (π_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{1, 3}) + P_{4, 3} (π_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{2, 3}) + P_{5, 3} (π_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{3, 3}) + P_{6, 3} ({\hat{e}}_{t} + π_{m, 3}^{*} - {\hat{a}}_{m, 3})

\hat{g_{0, t}} = {{1 + g_{B P} - [1 + g_{1, 1} g_{B P} + g_{2, 1} {(π_{1} - π_{2})}_{t - 1} + g_{3, 1} {(π_{1} - π_{3})}_{t - 1}] P_{1, t - 1} - [1 + g_{1, 2} g_{B P} + g_{2, 2} {(π_{1} - π_{2})}_{t - 1} + g_{3, 2} {(π_{2} - π_{3})}_{t - 1}] P_{2, t - 1} - [1 + g_{1, 2} g_{B P} + g_{2, 2} {(π_{1} - π_{2})}_{t - 1} + g_{3, 2} {(π_{2} - π_{3})}_{t - 1}] P_{3, t - 1}} / (P_{1, t - 1} g_{0, 1, t - 1} + P_{2, t - 1} g_{0, 2, t - 1} + P_{3, t - 1} g_{0, 3, t - 1})} - 1

[1] Correspondência para: Cryslãine Flavia da Silva Rodrigues Contato: crys-cg@hotmail.com

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UM CASO PARA POLÍTICA INDUSTRIAL? RESULTADOS DE PREVISÕES PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA (2016-2025) A PARTIR DE UM MODELO DESAGREGADO DE CRESCIMENTO RESTRINGIDO PELO BP

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