Since the late 1990s, the Brazilian electric power industry has been undergoing significant structural changes, the main objective being to increase competition and resources allocation efficiency. Due to this increase in efficiency and because of seasonal electricity consumption, there is the inclusion of a contractual flexibility, named seazonalization. This flexibility in the contract allows the generation agent (hydropower plant) to choose the monthly electricity amount generated and supplied to the system, each year, within certain limits. In this article it is proposed a model for the analysis and decision of the best energy supply profile, for the twelve months of the contract time span, based on the optimization of the omega measurement (consider all moments), subjected to value at risk restrictions. In order for this omega measurement to be employed, the simulation of short term prices is used and the model then applied to a small hydroelectric generation facility. The results indicate that the seazonalization decision will change substantially when there are value at risk restrictions, forcing the optimal decision to be closer the flat allocation throughout the year.
decision analysis; omega measurement; electricity; simulation; optimization
