The impact of some animal products on agricultural gross domestic product in Türkiye: A time series analysis

Acibuca, Veysi

doi:10.37496/rbz5320230007

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Animal production systems and agribusiness • R. Bras. Zootec. 53 • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.37496/rbz5320230007 copy

The impact of some animal products on agricultural gross domestic product in Türkiye: A time series analysis

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The relationship between animal products and agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) in Türkiye was investigated in this study. We used data of eight animal products (cow milk, sheep milk, beef, mutton, poultry meat, eggs, wool, and honey) from 1980 to 2020. After checking the stationarity of the series by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Johansen cointegration test was used to establish the existence of a long-term relationship between animal products and AGDP, and the results were interpreted using The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) analysis. According to the findings, honey, beef, poultry meat, mutton, eggs, and wool had a positive and significant relationship with AGDP in Türkiye, whereas sheep milk and cow milk and AGDP was not significant. The total effect of the examined animal products on AGDP was 0.61%. The results showed that wool was the most important contributor to AGDP among the products analyzed. Therefore, it is suggested that policymakers develop funding strategies to expand the production of these products.

Keywords:
AGDP; animal products; FMOLS analysis; sustainability; Türkiye

	AGDP	Beef	Cow milk	Eggs	Honey	Poultry meat	Mutton	Sheep milk	Wool
Mean	54685106	3916582	4761474	1215198	567643	2223686	2217822	1031396	47146
Median	52161361	3574630	3904628	1281994	557776	1509674	2178436	1057176	47558
Maximum	86284392	9639114	9302746	2174043	946057	5298238	3429499	1599080	67490
Minimum	35430063	1036003	2972135	361403	208019	576852	875127	661463	32363
SD	13507211	2081721	1794792	545946	210700	1631538	832638	234355	9035
Skewness	0.67	0.98	1.20	0.05	0.09	0.75	−0.06	0.35	0.22
Kurtosis	2.52	3.58	3.13	2.02	1.98	2.05	1.72	2.43	1.99

Variable	I(0)		I(1)
Variable	ADF statistic	Probability	ADF statistic	Probability
Ln(AGDP)	−0.938766	0.9409	−12.22081	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(eggs)	−1.865025	0.6538	−6.285531	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(honey)	−3.691589	0.3046	−10.02788	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(beef)	−2.432735	0.3581	−8.085304	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(poultry)	−2.954355	0.1574	−8.388118	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(mutton)	−1.932458	0.6191	−6.756741	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(cow milk)	−1.518491	0.8064	−6.315307	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(sheep milk)	−0.771338	0.9599	−4.684189	0.0029^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(wool)	0.590821	0.9992	−4.770649	0.0023^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.

Lags interval: 1–1
Eigenvalue	Trace statistic	0.05 critical value	Probability^ Indicates values are accurate.	Hypothesized no. of CE(s)
0.798916	276.7969	197.3709	0.0000	None^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.719317	214.2396	159.5297	0.0000	At most 1^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.699016	164.6889	125.6154	0.0000	At most 2^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.643557	117.8618	95.75366	0.0007	At most 3^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.52027	77.63015	69.81889	0.0104	At most 4^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.439005	48.98343	47.85613	0.0390	At most 5^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.310051	26.43977	29.79707	0.1161	At most 6^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.253045	11.96538	15.49471	0.1586	At most 7^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.014942	0.587131	3.841466	0.4435	At most 8^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.

Eigenvalue	Max-Eigen statistic	0.05 critical value	Probability^ Indicates values are accurate.	Hypothesized no. of CE(s)
0.798916	62.55727	58.43354	0.0187	None^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.719317	49.5507	52.36261	0.0945	At most 1^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.699016	46.82718	46.23142	0.0431	At most 2^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.643557	40.23161	40.07757	0.0480	At most 3^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.520270	28.64672	33.87687	0.1853	At most 4 ^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.439005	22.54366	27.58434	0.1938	At most 5^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.310051	14.47439	21.13162	0.3274	At most 6^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.253045	11.37825	14.2646	0.1362	At most 7^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.
0.014942	0.587131	3.841466	0.4435	At most 8^* * Indicates significance at 5% level.

Dependent variable: Ln(AGDP)
Method: Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS)
Sample (adjusted): 1980-2020
Included observations: 40
Corresponding coefficient	Coefficient	Standard error (SE)	t-Statistic	Probability
C	10.80755	0.50066	21.58662	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 1% level.
Ln(honey)	0.157479	0.047666	3.303824	0.0024^* * Indicates significance at 1% level.
Ln(beef)	0.05118	0.019124	2.676231	0.0118^ Indicates significance at 5% level.
Ln(poultry)	0.132011	0.018545	7.118438	0.0000^* * Indicates significance at 1% level.
Ln(mutton)	0.055069	0.01828	3.012498	0.0051^* * Indicates significance at 1% level.
Ln(cow milk)	0.021898	0.05416	0.404314	0.6888
Ln(sheep milk)	−0.07587	0.045941	−1.65147	0.1087
Ln(eggs)	0.117702	0.027219	4.324207	0.0001^* * Indicates significance at 1% level.
Ln(wool)	0.211946	0.051297	4.13177	0.0003^* * Indicates significance at 1% level.
R²	0.986054	Mean dependent variance		18.73208
Adjusted R²	0.982455	Standard deviation dependent variance		0.214285
SE of regression	0.028384	Sum squared residual		0.024974
Long-run variance	0.000404

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[1] * Corresponding author: veysiacibuca@artuklu.edu.tr