Simulations of the present climate were performed in the Hadley Center, UK, for the period 1960-1990 with the regional atmospheric model HadRM3P nested in the global model HadAM3 integrated with observed sea surface temperature (SST). The results of this simulation, available at CPTEC/INPE, were investigated over the State of Bahia, Brazil, by comparing them against observed daily data from 29 INMET meteorological stations. The model was able to simulate the main patterns of the seasonal cycle of precipitation, mean 2 m temperature and humidity in the majority of the State of Bahia. However, the magnitude of precipitation along the shore was smaller than observation. Also, the model did not produce any precipitation in the semi-arid and western regions of Bahia during June-July-August. This imposed a more drastic climate scenario than observed. HadRM3P was also integrated nested in the coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model HadCM3, with prescribed SST produced by this model, to simulate the IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios for the period 2070-2100. These simulations over the State of Bahia showed precipitation decrease and temperature increase with respect to the present climate simulation over all the State. The same patterns of anomalies were produced in the A2 and B2 scenarios, but higher magnitudes were obtained for the A2. The largest reduction in precipitation was produced along the shore - about 70% - and the highest increase in temperature was over the north and the northwest - about 5ºC.
regional model HadRM3P; validation; climate change in the State of Bahia
