Influenza (H1N1) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Ceará: Relationship with Meteorological Variables

Abstract

This study performed a monthly and weekly diagnostic analysis of cases and deaths of Influenza (H1N1) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) between the years 1914 and 2019 in Ceará State and their relationships with meteorological variables, precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures. The most expressive results showed that both H1N1 and SARS have cases and deaths reported mainly from March onwards, intensifying in the austral winter and spring months. In 2018, an outbreak of H1N1 and SARS was observed in the State of Ceará with a high number of cases and deaths, mainly from SARS. On average, cases of H1N1 and SARS are low in the first 7 months of the year, and increase from August onwards reaching peak values in December. The peak of H1N1 and SARS contamination occurs in the months from the second half of the year towards the end of the year. In relation to the meteorological variables and the cases of H1N1 and SARS, the results showed that there is, in the period of greater incidence of notified cases of H1N1 and SARS, that normalized deviations of cases above the average, in the weeks of the months of September to December in most part of the years under study, suggest that the maximum and minimum temperatures in the State of Ceará were observed with values below the average. As for contamination from the influence of weekly cases of H1N1 and SARS from April to July in relation to cases from the months ahead to December, these explain, statistically with confidence of 95% according to the t-Sudent test, only of the order of 16% until 49% of cases a month ahead, being more apparent for the months of April to May, from May to June and from June to July.

Keywords
climate variability; climate change; endemics