Evaluation of the Meteorological Conditions Simulated by the WRF Model in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro on Days with High Concentrations of Pollutants

Abstract

Often, meteorological conditions that are unfavorable to the dispersion of pollutants together with high atmospheric pollutant emissions and a complex topography favor the occurrence of high concentrations of pollutants in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ). In this context, this study verified the influence of meteorological conditions in two periods where the occurrence of high concentrations of O₃ and PM₁₀ was observed on consecutive days in MARJ. The study used the numerical model Weather Research and Forecanting Model (WRF) to simulate the conditions and favorable meteorological variables to maintain these episodes, verifying the influence of the South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone (SASA), high air temperature, low values of wind speed and absence of cloudiness, in agreement with the data observed. Through the visual analysis, it was possible to verify that the model was effective in the SASA representation, precipitation and cloudiness. The model presented positive of the Pearson linear correlation between simulated and observed temperature above 0.71 in the 2 periods in all 8 meteorological stations and a positive Pearson linear correlation between simulated and observed air humidity above 0.72. The calculation of the mean error (ME) indicated that, in general, the model underestimated the air temperature and overestimated the relative humidity of the air. The application of the statistical methods to the data observed and simulated by the model revealed that the model has the skill to represent the meteorological variables for most stations.

Keywords
ozone; particulate material; metropolitan area; WRF