The purpose of this work is to analyze the influence of climate variability and general circulation impact on the behavior of the winds over Northeast Brazil, with emphasis in the atmospheric model as a feasible tool for forecasting of wind power generation. Statistical analysis suggest that there is a significant correlation between the climate indices (El Niño and Dipole indices) and the average wind speed over Northeast Brazil, mainly between February and May, period that corresponds to the four-month rainy season. Data from NCEP Reanalysis for extreme events (as the 1982-1983 El Niño events and the 1973-1974 La Niña events) suggest that, in those cases, the influence of the general circulation is so pronounced that strong events of El Niño and La Niña act as to intensify and to weaken, respectively, the winds over that region. As the smaller scale circulation associated to the sea breeze system and topographic forcing are relevant to determine the characteristics of the local wind, a mesoscale atmospheric model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, (RAMS) was used to simulate the wind speed and direction from July to June of 1973-74 and of 1982-83, in order to estimate the wind variability on a seasonal time scale and the possible impacts of wind variations on the wind energy generation over Northeast Brazil
Climate Variability; Atmospheric Modeling; Wind Energy
