Abstract
This paper investigates the primary products exports effects, especially on oil, on the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance, according to the arguments for the literature called “Natural Resources Curse”. For this, it uses cointegration analysis through estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models, with data from the 2000-2017 period. The evidence indicates that the oil exports effects are positive for economic activity in the long run, with robust results by the control of the transmission channels, contrary to the Curse hypothesis for Brazil. However, the effects are negative in the short run, although they become insignificant with the control of transmission channels. Thus, this paper verifies that investments resumption and institutional framework improvement are important to ensure the oil benefits for the economy.
Keywords:
Exports; Oil; Brazil; ARDL Models