Running for artificial intelligence policy in G20 Countries - Policy instruments and mixes matters?

Filgueiras, Fernando

doi:10.20396/rbi.v21i00.8667472

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ARTICLE • Rev. Bras. Inov. 21 • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.20396/rbi.v21i00.8667472 copy

Running for artificial intelligence policy in G20 Countries - Policy instruments and mixes matters?

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the use of policy instruments to increase artificial intelligence patents. There has been a race to produce AI technologies to reduce countries' geopolitical risks and conditions of development and global technological insertion. AI technologies are strategic in the digital transformation scenario, requiring governments to design policies promoting AI technology, expanding data protection, and ensuring digital sovereignty. This paper compares public policy instruments from G20 member countries through the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) methodology. The paper concludes that mixes of policy instruments matter in producing AI patents, demonstrating different configurations of mixes that make outcomes. The paper analyzes these instruments role in digital sovereignty and AI application in industry and governments.

KEYWORDS
AI policy; Policy instruments; G20; Digital sovereignty; Digital transformation

Countries	Patents 2015	Patents 2016	Patents 2017	Patents 2018	Patents 2019	Patents 2020	⅀ Patents (SumPat)
Argentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Australia	46	38	63	80	91	124	442
Brazil	3	1	3	2	0	0	9
Canada	46	40	44	34	53	51	268
China	327	259	422	575	630	803	3016
France	880	806	885	833	911	862	5177
Germany	439	403	476	484	638	630	3070
India	56	62	70	80	113	147	528
Italy	143	157	166	198	181	162	1007
Japan	1617	1229	1485	1726	1667	1671	9395
Korea	1141	935	889	995	986	1272	6218
Mexico	10	7	13	15	9	0	54
Netherlands	13	16	37	42	47	49	204
Russia	25	13	29	31	34	58	190
Saudi Arabia	34	30	20	19	35	51	189
South Africa	1	2	0	1	0	0	4
Spain	14	16	11	5	13	19	78
Turkey	3	1	0	3	3	0	10
United Kingdom	404	427	498	472	516	564	2881
United States	4595	3502	4947	5973	7228	8343	34588

Countries	Normalized outcome (NSumPat)	Calibrated outcome (CALRES)	Justification
United States	1	0.95	AI Vibrancy (67.6728)
China	0.295293	0.23	AI Vibrancy (26.7146)
India	0.123553	0.09	AI Vibrancy (21.7428)
Australia	0.113044	0.09	AI Vibrancy (20.7552)
Canada	0.088025	0.08	AI Vibrancy (19.6527)
United Kingdom	0.288608	0.22	AI Vibrancy (19.4345)
South Korea	0.423997	0.39	AI Vibrancy (17.0479)
Germany	0.297925	0.23	AI Vibrancy (15.4788)
France	0.38688	0.34	AI Vibrancy (14.8942)
Japan	0.521178	0.53	AI Vibrancy (11.6798)
Netherlands	0.076798	0.07	AI Vibrancy (10.4261)
Italy	0.170629	0.12	AI Vibrancy (7.5680)
Brazil	0.016131	0.05	AI Vibrancy (6.7727)
Spain	0.047488	0.06	AI Vibrancy (6.7172)
South Africa	0.010754	0.05	AI Vibrancy (3.6161)
Russia	0.074116	0.07	AI Vibrancy (1.0457)
Argentina	0	0.05
Mexico	0.039512	0.07
Saudi Arabia	0.073921	0.07
Turkey	0.017003	0.05

Portfolios	Policy Instrument	Description	Variable
Financing	Institutional funding	Existence of institutional funds to finance research and development in AI.	IF
	Project grants	Existence of institutional structure for project financing.	PG
	Grants for business	The existence of funds to finance the development of AI by private businesses.	GFB
	Centers of excellence	Existence of funds to finance centers of excellence in AI research and development.	CE
	Procurement	Existence of financial incentives for the government to purchase AI technology.	Pro
Collaborative structures	Networking and collaborative platforms	Existence of initiatives to create networking for AI developers.	NetColl
	Dedicated support to research infrastructure	Existence of research infrastructure available for research and development of AI.	DSI
	Information services and data access	Existence of information and data access services for research and development of AI solutions.	ISDA
Governance	Consultation	National policies and AI development strategies are based on consultations with society and policy stakeholders.	Con
	Regulatory oversight and ethics	Existence of a rule or institutional body that makes the ethical control of AI solutions.	ROE
	Public awareness and campaigns	Existence of public campaigns and mobilization of society for AI policies.	PAC
	Standards and certifications	Existence of a standardization and certification structure for AI solutions.	SC
	Horizontal coordination	Existence of horizontal governance structures of AI policy.	HC
	Policy intelligence	Existence of policy intelligence and information on AI policy.	PI
Regulation	Technology extension and business advisory	Existence of an advisory structure for the business to adopt AI and extend the technology to markets.	TEAS
	Emerging technology regulation	Existence of a regulatory framework for emerging technologies.	ETR
	Labor mobility regulation and incentives	Existence of an institutional norm or rule that regulates labor mobility in order to disseminate AI skills.	LMR
	Science and innovation challenges, prizes, and awards	Existence of public awards or challenges organized for the development of AI technology.	SICPA

Countries	Financing					Collaborative Structures			Governance						Regulation
Countries	IF	PG	GFB	CE	PRO	NetColl	DSI	ISDA	CON	ROE	PAC	SC	HC	PI	TEAS	ETR	LMR	SICPA
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Italy
Japan
South Korea
Mexico
Netherlands
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Spain
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States

Instruments	Cod	Consistency	Coverage
Institutional fund	IF	0.588235	0.625000
Institutional fund (negated)	~IF	0.411765	0.291667
Project grants	PG	0.882353	0.750000
Project grants (negated)	~PG	0.117647	0.100000
Grants for business	GFB	0.705882	0.666667
Grants for business (negated)	~GFB	0.294118	0.227273
Centers of excellence	CE	0.705882	0.600000
Centers of excellence (negated)	~CE	0.294118	0.250000
Procurement	Proc	0.411765	0.875000
Procurement (negated)	~Proc	0.588235	0.312500
Networking and collaborative platforms	NetColl	0.882353	0.750000
Networking and collaborative platforms (negated)	~NetColl	0.117647	0.100000
Dedicated support to research infrastructure	DSI	0.705882	0.750000
Dedicated support to research infrastructure (negated)	~DSI	0.294118	0.208333
Information services and data access	ISDA	0.705882	0.666667
Information services and data access (negated)	~ISDA	0.294118	0.227273
Consultation	Cons	0.882353	0.535714
Consultation (negated)	~Cons	0.117647	0.166667
Regulatory oversight and ethics	ROE	0.647059	0.550000
Regulatory oversight and ethics (negated)	~ROE	0.352941	0.300000
Public awareness and campaigns	PAC	0.470588	0.800000
Public awareness and campaigns (negated)	~PAC	0.529412	0.300000
Standards and certifications	SC	0.294118	0.625000
Standards and certifications (negated)	~SC	0.705882	0.375000
Horizontal coordination	HC	0.352941	0.600000
Horizontal coordination (negated)	~HC	0.647059	0.366667
Policy intelligence	PI	0.470588	0.444444
Policy intelligence (negated)	~PI	0.529412	0.409091
Technology extension and business advisory	TEAS	0.294118	0.833333
Technology extension and business advisory (negated)	~TEAS	0.705882	0.352941
Emerging technology regulation	ETR	0.764706	0.722222
Emerging technology regulation (negated)	~ETR	0.235294	0.181818
Labor mobility regulation and incentives	LMR	0.470588	1.000000
Labor mobility regulation and incentives (negated)	~LMR	0. 529412	0.281250
Science and innovation challenges, prizes, and awards	SICPA	0.529412	0.900000
Science and innovation challenges, prizes, and awards (negated)	~SICPA	0.470588	0.266667

IF	PG	GFB	CE	Proc	CALRES	Cases	Raw consist.	PRI consist.	SYM consist.
0	1	0	1	1	1	United States	0.95	0.9473	1
0	1	0	0	0	0	Japan	0.53	0.1132	1
1	1	1	1	0	0	France	0.34	0	0
1	1	1	1	1	0	China, United Kingdom, South Korea	0.28	0	0
0	1	1	1	0	0	Germany	0.23	0	0
0	0	1	0	0	0	Mexico and Italy	0.09	0	0
0	1	1	0	1	0	Australia	0.09	0	0
1	1	0	0	0	0	Canada	0.08	0	0
0	0	0	1	0	0	Netherlands	0.07	0	0
1	0	0	1	0	0	Saudi Arabia	0.07	0	0
0	0	1	1	0	0	Russia	0.07	0	0
0	0	0	0	0	0	Índia, Spain, South Africa and Argentina	0.0625	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0	Turkey	0.05	0	0
0	1	0	1	0	0	Brazil	0.05	0	0

Assumptions	Raw coverage	Unique coverage	Consistency	Typical cases
PG	0.556793	0.167038	1	United States, China, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, South Korea, Germany, France, Japan and Brazil
~IF*~GFB	0.361915	0.194878	0.928571	India, Japan, Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, South Africa, Argentina
~IF*CE	0.22049	0	0.99	Germany, Netherlands, Brazil and Russia
GFB*CE	0.331849	0	0.993333	China, United Kingdom, South Korea, Germany, France and Russia.

NetColl	DSI	ISDA	Cases	Raw consist.	PRI consist.	SYM consist.
1	1	1	France, Germany, South Korea, United Kingdom, United States	0.426	0.2387	1
1	1	0	Japan	0.53	0.1137	0.3543
1	0	1	China	0.23	0	0
1	0	0	Canada, Italy, Netherlands	0.09	0	0
0	0	0	Australia, Brazil, Índia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Spain	0.0671	0	0
0	1	1	Saudi Arabia, Turkey	0.06	0	0
0	0	1	Argentina	0.05	0	0

Assumptions	Raw coverage	Unique coverage	Consistency	Typical cases
NetColl * DSI * ~ISDA	0.139474	0.139474	0.53	Japão (1 and 0.53)

CONS	ROE	PAC	SC	HC	PI	CALRES	Cases	Raw consist.	PRI consist.	SYM consist.
1	1	1	1	1	1	1	United States	1	0.947368	1
1	1	1	1	0	0	0	France	0.34	0	0
1	1	1	0	1	1	0	Canada, Germany, United Kingdom	0.176667	0	0
1	1	0	0	0	0	0	Japan, Spain	0.295	0	0
1	1	0	1	0	1	0	Australia	0.09	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0	0	China, India, South Korea, Mexico, Netherlands	0.168	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	1	0	Brazil, Italy	0.085	0	0
0	1	0	0	0	0	0	South Africa	0	0	0
0	0	0	1	0	0	0	Russia	0.07	0	0
0	0	0	0	1	0	0	Saudi Arabia	0.07	0	0
0	0	0	0	0	1	0	Argentina	0.05	0	0
0	1	0	0	0	1	0	Turkey	0	0	0

Assumptions	Raw coverage	Unique coverage	Consistency	Typical cases
Cons * ROE * PAC * SC * HC * PI	0.25	0.25	0.95	United States

TEAS	ETR	LMR	SICPA	CALRES	Cases	Raw consist.	PRI consist.	SYM consist.
1	1	1	0	1	United States	0.95	0.947368	1
1	1	1	1	0	South Korea	0.39	0	0
0	1	1	1	0	France	0.34	0	0
0	1	0	1	0	China and Germany	0.23	0	0
0	1	1	0	0	United Kingdom	0.22	0	0
1	0	0	1	0	Italy	0.12	0	0
0	0	0	0	0	Australia, Japan, Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Turkey	0.108	0.0066	0.0075
0	1	0	0	0	India, Canada e Russia	0.08	0	0

Assumptions	Raw coverage	Unique coverage	Consistency	Typical cases
TEAS * ETR * LMR * ~SICPA	0.25	0.25	0.95	United States

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[1] Author’s contribution:

A. Literature review and problematization: Fernando Filgueiras

B. Data collection and statistical analysis: Fernando Filgueiras

C. Preparation of figures and tables: Fernando Filgueiras

D. Manuscript development: Fernando Filgueiras

E. Bibliography selection: Fernando Filgueiras