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Importações Brasileiras: Um Estudo Empírico sobre Duração e Fatores de Sobrevivência

Trade flows to Brazil are dynamic and short-lasting. The vast majority of flows lasts from one to two years only. In this work, we study empirically the duration of trade flows to Brazil between 1995 and 2012, using disaggregated data. Our results suggest that the survival rates increase with the initial value of imports, increasing more for differentiated products, which corroborates the hypothesis that the survival is related to uncertainty at the moment of the initial purchase. Moreover, trade flows with advanced countries last longer, as well as those trade flows coming from countries belonging to Mercosul (a Preferential Trade Agreement).


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