The Economic Consequences of the Agricultural Expansion in Matopiba

Bragança, Arthur

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20180008

Arthur Bragança

Climate Policy Initiative and Departamento de Economia da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). Rua Marquês de São Vicente 225, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. CEP 22453-900. Email: arthurbraganca@puc-rio.br

Thumbnail

Figure 1
SAMPLE MUNICIPALITIES.

The figure identifies Cerrado and non-Cerrado municipalities in the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia. Municipalities are defined as minimum comparable areas consistent with the existing municipalities and borders from 1991. Municipalities with more than 200,000 inhabitants are excluded from the sample.

Thumbnail

Figure 2
EVOLUTION OF AGRICULTURAL OUTCOMES.

Panel A plots the evolution of the share of cropland (as % of the municipal area) in Cerrado and non-Cerrado municipalities in the period 1995-2012. Panel B plots the evolution of the log of crop output per capita in Cerrado and non-Cerrado municipalities in the period 1995-2012.

Thumbnail

Figure 3
EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURAL OUTCOMES.

Panel A plots the evolution of the share of cropland (as % of the municipal area) in Cerrado and non-Cerrado municipalities in the period 1995-2012. Panel B plots the evolution of the log of crop output per capita in Cerrado and non-Cerrado municipalities in the period 1995-2012.

Thumbnail

Figure 4
EFFECTS ON LAND USE.

Each panel plots the coefficients β_t for different periods obtained from estimating equation (1) with a different indicator of land use. Panel A reports the results obtained using the share of cropland cultivated with soy as dependent variable. Panel B reports the results obtained using the share of cropland cultivated with maize as dependent variable. Panel C reports the results obtained using share of cropland cultivated with rice as dependent variable. Panel D reports the results obtained using share of cropland cultivated with cassava as dependent variable. The dots depict and the bars 95% confidence intervals.

Thumbnail

Figure 5
EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE.

Each panel plots the coefficients β_t for different periods obtained from estimating equation (1) with a different indicator of economic performance. Panel A reports the results obtained using the agricultural GDP per capita as dependent variable. Panel B reports the results obtained using the manufacturing GDP per capita as dependent variable. Panel C reports the results obtained using the services GDP per capita as dependent variable. Panel D reports the results obtained using the GDP per capita as dependent variable. The dots depict and the bars 95% confidence intervals.

Thumbnail

Table 1
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS.

Observations are computed using data from all 665 municipalities in the Matopiba region.

Thumbnail

Table 2
EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURAL OUTCOMES.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Column (1) reports estimates using cropland as the dependent variable while column (2) reports estimates using the log of crop output.

Thumbnail

Table 3
EFFECTS ON LAND USE.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1) to (4) report estimates using the share of cropland cultivated with a particular product as the dependent variable. Column (5) reports estimates using the number of cattle per hectare as the dependent variable.

Thumbnail

Table 4
EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1) to (3) report estimates using GDP per capita in different sectors as the dependent variable. Column (4) reports estimates using aggregate GDP per capita as the dependent variable.

Thumbnail

Table 5
EFFECTS ON CONSUMPTION AND INFRASTRUCTURE.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1)-(6) report estimates using the share of households with access to a particular good as the dependent variable.

Thumbnail

Table 6
EFFECTS ON POPULATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1)-(3) use, respectively, the log of total, rural and urban population as dependent variables. Columns (4) and (5) use, respectively, the share of teenagers enrolled in school and the share of adults with 8 years of schooling or more.

Thumbnail

Table A-1
Effects on Agricultural Outcomes-Different Controls.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1)-(4) report estimates using cropland as the dependent variable while columns (5)-(8) report estimates using the log of crop output.

Thumbnail

Table A-2
Effects on Agricultural Outcomes-Different Controls.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1)-(2) report estimates using agricultural GDP per capita as the dependent variable; columns (3)-(4) using manufacturing GDP per capita; columns (5)-(6) using services GDP per capita and; columns (7)-(8) using total GDP per capita.

Thumbnail

Table A-3
Effects on Consumption and Infrastructure-Different Controls.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1)-(2) report estimates using the share of households which owns a TV as the dependent variable; columns (3)-(4) using the share of households which owns a fridge and; columns (5)-(6) using the share of households with electricity.

Thumbnail

Table A-4
Effects on Agricultural Outcomes-No Weights.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Column (1) reports estimates using cropland as the dependent variable while column (2) reports estimates using the log of crop output.

Thumbnail

Table A-5
Effects on Economic Performance-No Weights.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1) to (3) report estimates using GDP per capita in different sectors as the dependent variable. Column (4) reports estimates using aggregate GDP per capita as the dependent variable.

Thumbnail

Table A-6
Effects on Consumption and Infrastructure-No Weights.

Each column reports the results from estimating equation (1) using a different dependent variable. Columns (1)-(6) report estimates using the share of households with access to a particular good as the dependent variable.

Thumbnail

(1)

Thumbnail

(2)

	Initial (1)	Final (2)	Difference (3)
Cropland (% of municipality area)	0.039 (0.003)	0.048 (0.006)	0.009 (0.005)
Crop Output per hectare	0.038 (0.003)	0.104 (0.006)	0.066 (0.005)
Soy (% of cropland)	0.078 (0.018)	0.194 (0.023)	0.116 (0.017)
Number of Cattle (per hectare)	0.146 (0.008)	0.185 (0.011)	0.039 (0.006)
GDP per capita	4.779 (0.578)	7.774 (0.430)	2.995 (0.316)
Population	42.077 (3.002)	54.30 (4.128)	12.22 (1.627)
Share with TV	0.308 (0.011)	0.854 (0.004)	0.545 (0.008)
Share with Refrigerator	0.276 (0.011)	0.783 (0.005)	0.507 (0.007)
Share with Electricity	0.551 (0.013)	0.937 (0.003)	0.387 (0.011)
School Enrollment (15-17)	0.485 (0.007)	0.831 (0.002)	0.346 (0.007)
Share with 8+Years of Schooling	0.128	0.364	0.236
	0.005	0.007	0.003

	Dependent Variable
	Cropland _{(% of municipality area)} (1)	log(Crop Output per municipality hectare) (2)
Cerrado (1997-1998)	0.003 (0.003)	0.078 (0.102)
Cerrado (1999-2000)	0.007^ p < 0.05; (0.003)	0.026 (0.111)
Cerrado (2001-2002)	0.010^ p < 0.05; (0.004)	0.263^* * p < 0.1. (0.140)
Cerrado (2003-2004)	0.012^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.005)	0.387^ p < 0.05; (0.157)
Cerrado (2005-2006)	0.019^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.434^ p < 0.05; (0.172)
Cerrado (2007-2008)	0.024^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.579^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.200)
Cerrado (2009-2010)	0.031^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.007)	0.735^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.227)
Cerrado (2011-2012)	0.036^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.008)	0.903^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.268)
R-Squared	0.872	0.851
Number of Municipalities	665	664
Number of Observations	11,970	11,903

	Dependent Variable
	Soy _{(% of cropland)} (1)	Maize _{(% of cropland)} (2)	Rice _{(% of cropland)} (3)	Cassava _{(% of cropland)} (4)	Cattle _{(per hectare)} (5)
Cerrado (1997-1998)	0.003 (0.020)	-0.012 (0.013)	-0.010 (0.017)	0.007 (0.013)	0.021 (0.013)
Cerrado (1999-2000)	0.024 (0.016)	-0.009 (0.016)	-0.022 (0.019)	-0.006 (0.016)	0.010 (0.007)
Cerrado (2001-2002)	0.053^ p < 0.05; (0.025)	0.011 (0.018)	-0.049^ p < 0.05; (0.023)	-0.027 (0.018)	0.010 (0.011)
Cerrado (2003-2004)	0.083^ p < 0.05; (0.036)	0.003 (0.022)	-0.078^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.027)	-0.039^ p < 0.05; (0.018)	-0.019 (0.014)
Cerrado (2005-2006)	0.122^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.038)	0.021 (0.026)	-0.081^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.031)	-0.059^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.021)	-0.035^ p < 0.05; (0.016)
Cerrado (2007-2008)	0.137^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.037)	0.018 (0.024)	-0.096^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.034)	-0.061^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.021)	-0.025 (0.017)
Cerrado (2009-2010)	0.173^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.038)	-0.010 (0.024)	-0.113^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.037)	-0.032^* * p < 0.1. (0.018)	-0.023 (0.018)
Cerrado (2011-2012)	0.188^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.037)	-0.011 (0.030)	-0.117^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.038)	-0.044 (0.030)	-0.014 (0.019)
R-Squared	0.900	0.828	0.925	0.841	0.915
Number of Municipalities	664	664	664	664	665
Number of Observations	11,910	11,910	11,910	11,910	11,970

	Dependent Variable: log of per capita GDP in each category
	Agriculture (1)	Manufacturing (2)	Services (3)	Total (4)
Cerrado (2001-2002)	0.053^* * p < 0.1. (0.028)	0.035 (0.084)	0.039^ p < 0.05; (0.015)	0.030^* * p < 0.1. (0.016)
Cerrado (2003-2004)	0.151^ p < 0.05; (0.048)	0.021 (0.093)	0.068^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.020)	0.092^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.025)
Cerrado (2005-2006)	0.145^ p < 0.05; (0.059)	0.013 (0.094)	0.094^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.025)	0.077^ p < 0.05; (0.031)
Cerrado (2007-2008)	0.208^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.065)	0.039 (0.120)	0.048^ p < 0.05; (0.023)	0.068^* * p < 0.1. (0.036)
Cerrado (2009-2010)	0.238^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.061)	0.088 (0.119)	0.070^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.023)	0.074^ p < 0.05; (0.033)
Cerrado (2011-2012)	0.316^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.072)	0.12 (0.123)	0.094^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.025)	0.107^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.036)
R-Squared	0.938	0.945	0.972	0.959
Number of Municipalities	665	665	665	665
Number of Observations	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310

	Dependent Variable: % of Households with Access to the Good
	TV (1)	Refrigerator (2)	Car (3)	Electricity (4)	Water (5)	Sewage (6)
Cerrado 2000	-0.002	0.005	-0.003	0.021	-0.004	0.003
	(0.015)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.021)	(0.015)	(0.041)
Cerrado 2010	0.052^ p < 0.05;	0.043^* * p < 0.1.	-0.011	0.073^* * p < 0.1.	-0.001	-0.002
	(0.026)	(0.023)	(0.007)	(0.039)	(0.024)	(0.030)
R-Squared	0.947	0.960	0.929	0.856	0.919	0.707
Number of Municipalities	665	665	665	665	665	665
Number of Observations	1,995	1,995	1,995	1,995	1,995	1,995

	Dependent Variable
	log(Population) (1)	log(Rural Population) (2)	log(Urban Population) (3)	School Enrollment (15-17) (4)	8+ Years of Schooling (5)
Cerrado 2000	-0.018	-0.055	0.017	0.011	-0.004
	(0.030)	(0.045)	(0.060)	(0.019)	(0.007)
Cerrado 2010	0.014	-0.014	0.061	0.011	-0.014
	(0.047)	(0.063)	(0.085)	(0.024)	(0.009)
R-Squared	0.983	0.952	0.983	0.870	0.969
Number of Municipalities	665	664	665	665	665
Number of Observations	1,995	1,991	1,995	1,995	1,995

	Dependent Variable
	Cropland (% of municipality area)				log(Crop Output per municipality hectare)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Cerrado (1997-1998)	0.006^ p < 0.05; (0.003)	0.002 (0.003)	0.006 (0.004)	0.003 (0.003)	0.375^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.065)	0.068 (0.077)	0.098 (0.093)	0.078 (0.102)
Cerrado (1999-2000)	0.011^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.004)	0.007^* * p < 0.1. (0.004)	0.011^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.004)	0.007^ p < 0.05; (0.003)	0.485^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.069)	0.058 (0.088)	0.045 (0.100)	0.026 (0.111)
Cerrado (2001-2002)	0.018^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.011^ p < 0.05; (0.005)	0.012^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.005)	0.010^ p < 0.05; (0.004)	0.683^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.095)	0.236^ p < 0.05; (0.110)	0.250^ p < 0.05; (0.125)	0.263^* * p < 0.1. (0.140)
Cerrado (2003-2004)	0.024^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.008)	0.014^ p < 0.05; (0.006)	0.017^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.005)	0.012^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.005)	0.917^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.111)	0.322^ p < 0.05; (0.125)	0.388^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.134)	0.387^ p < 0.05; (0.157)
Cerrado (2005-2006)	0.029^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.009)	0.021^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.021^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.019^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.853^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.123)	0.293^ p < 0.05; (0.135)	0.407^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.153)	0.434^ p < 0.05; (0.172)
Cerrado (2007-2008)	0.036^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.010)	0.027^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.007)	0.026^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.024^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.945^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.147)	0.382^ p < 0.05; (0.161)	0.521^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.179)	0.579^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.200)
Cerrado (2009-2010)	0.045^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.010)	0.034^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.007)	0.032^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.006)	0.031^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.007)	1.174^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.146)	0.604^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.178)	0.740^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.204)	0.735^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.227)
Cerrado (2011-2012)	0.062^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.012)	0.042^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.008)	0.037^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.008)	0.036^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.008)	1.538^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.195)	0.860^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.220)	0.866^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.240)	0.903^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.268)
Coordinates^a a Coordinates refer to the inclusion of cubic polynomials of longitude and latitude as controls.	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Climat^b b Climate refer to the inclusion of cubic polynomials of average rainfall and temperature as controls.	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes
Gradient^c c Gradient refers to the inclusion of a cubic polynomial of the municipality's average land gradient as a control. Observations are weighted by municipal area. Standard errors clustered at the municipality level are reported in parentheses.	No	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
R-Squared	0.862	0.868	0.871	0.872	0.83	0.844	0.85	0.851
Number of Municipalities	665	665	665	665	664	664	664	664
Number of Observations	11,970	11,970	11,970	11,970	11,903	11,903	11,903	11,903

	Dependent Variable: log of per capita GDP in each category
	Agriculture		Manufacturing		Services		Total
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Cerrado (2001-2002)	0.061^ p < 0.05; (0.025)	0.053^* * p < 0.1. (0.028)	0.050 (0.054)	0.035 (0.084)	0.012 (0.012)	0.039^ p < 0.05; (0.015)	0.035^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.012)	0.030^* * p < 0.1. (0.016)
Cerrado (2003-2004)	0.138^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.040)	0.151^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.048)	0.063 (0.061)	0.021 (0.093)	0.040^ p < 0.05; (0.016)	0.068^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.020)	0.087^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.021)	0.092^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.025)
Cerrado (2005-2006)	0.057 (0.049)	0.145^ p < 0.05; (0.059)	0.068 (0.068)	0.013 (0.094)	0.050^ p < 0.05; (0.020)	0.094^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.025)	0.043^* * p < 0.1. (0.025)	0.077^ p < 0.05; (0.031)
Cerrado (2007-2008)	0.051 (0.057)	0.208^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.065)	0.071 (0.080)	0.039 (0.120)	0.013 (0.020)	0.048^ p < 0.05; (0.023)	0.023 (0.030)	0.068^* * p < 0.1. (0.036)
Cerrado (2009-2010)	0.125^ p < 0.05; (0.056)	0.238^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.061)	0.111 (0.081)	0.088 (0.119)	0.024 (0.022)	0.070^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.023)	0.050^* * p < 0.1. (0.028)	0.074^ p < 0.05; (0.033)
Cerrado (2011-2012)	0.291^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.064)	0.316^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.072)	0.123 (0.093)	0.121 (0.123)	0.051^ p < 0.05; (0.023)	0.094^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.025)	0.094^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.030)	0.107^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.036)
Geographic Controls^a a Geographic Controls refer to the inclusion of the full set of geographic controls described in the main text. Observations are weighted by the initial municipal population. Standard errors clustered at the municipality level are reported in parentheses.	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
R-Squared	0.932	0.938	0.943	0.945	0.969	0.972	0.956	0.959
Number of Municipalities	665	665	665	665	665	665	665	665
Number of Observations	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310

	Dependent Variable is the % of Households with Access to the Good
	TV		Fridge		Electricity
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Cerrado 2000	-0.017^* * p < 0.1. (0.009)	-0.002 (0.015)	0.017^ p < 0.05; (0.008)	0.005 (0.011)	-0.007 (0.018)	0.021 (0.021)
Cerrado 2010	0.016 (0.022)	0.052^ p < 0.05; (0.026)	0.034^* * p < 0.1. (0.019)	0.043^* * p < 0.1. (0.023)	0.032 (0.034)	0.073^* * p < 0.1. (0.039)
Geographic Controls^a a Geographic Controls refer to the inclusion of the full set of geographic controls described in the main text. Observations are weighted by the initial municipal population. Standard errors clustered at the municipality level are reported in parentheses.	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
R-Squared	0.934	0.947	0.948	0.96	0.816	0.856
Number of Municipalities	665	665	665	665	665	665
Number of Observations	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310

	Dependent Variable
	Cropland (% of municipality area) (1)	log(Crop Output per municipality hectare) (2)
Cerrado (1997-1998)	0.001 (0.003)	0.041 (0.067)
Cerrado (1999-2000)	0.006 (0.005)	-0.101 (0.083)
Cerrado (2001-2002)	0.008 (0.005)	-0.001 (0.100)
Cerrado (2003-2004)	0.012^ p < 0.05; (0.006)	0.098 (0.111)
Cerrado (2005-2006)	0.018^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.007)	0.195 (0.129)
Cerrado (2007-2008)	0.024^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.008)	0.229 (0.143)
Cerrado (2009-2010)	0.027^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.008)	0.297^ p < 0.05; (0.151)
Cerrado (2011-2012)	0.028^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.007)	0.481^* ***** p < 0.01; (0.156)
R-Squared	0.872	0.851
Number of Municipalities	665	664
Number of Observations	11,970	11,903

	Dependent Variable: log of per capita GDP in each category
	Agriculture (1)	Manufacturing (2)	Manufacturing (2)	Total (4)
Cerrado (2001-2002)	0.021 (0.030)	0.027 (0.037)	0.037^* p < 0.05; (0.013)	0.029^* * p < 0.1. (0.016)
Cerrado (2003-2004)	0.114^ p < 0.05; (0.047)	0.014 (0.045)	0.063^* p < 0.05; (0.017)	0.083^* p < 0.05; (0.025)
Cerrado (2005-2006)	0.112^ p < 0.05; (0.055)	0.025 (0.050)	0.089^* p < 0.05; (0.022)	0.088^* p < 0.05; (0.030)
Cerrado (2007-2008)	0.181^* p < 0.05; (0.064)	0.062 (0.066)	0.060^* p < 0.05; (0.019)	0.094^* p < 0.05; (0.034)
Cerrado (2009-2010)	0.182^* p < 0.05; (0.060)	0.068 (0.069)	0.065^* p < 0.05; (0.020)	0.084^* p < 0.05; (0.032)
Cerrado (2011-2012)	0.252^* p < 0.05; (0.068)	0.065 (0.067)	0.074^* p < 0.05; (0.022)	0.095^* p < 0.05; (0.034)
R-Squared	0.914	0.913	0.955	0.937
Number of Municipalities	665	665	665	665
Number of Observations	9,310	9,310	9,310	9,310

	Dependent Variable: % of Households with Access to the Good
	TV (1)	Fridge (2)	Car (3)	Electricity (4)	Water (5)	Sewage (6)
Cerrado 2000	-0.009	0.002	0.000	0.000	-0.010	0.025
	(0.014)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.026)
Cerrado 2010	0.039^ p < 0.05;	0.030^* * p < 0.1.	-0.008	0.046	0.005	0.012
	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.006)	(0.031)	(0.026)	(0.026)
R-Squared	0.953	0.961	0.906	0.864	0.890	0.637
Number of Municipalities	665	665	665	665	665	665
Number of Observations	1,995	1,995	1,995	1,995	1,995	1,995

[TFN1] Note: Agricultural outcomes are weighted by municipality area while socioeconomic outcomes are weighted by population. Standard deviations are reported in parenthesis.

Brasil

Brasil

The Economic Consequences of the Agricultural Expansion in Matopiba^* * I thank Laisa Rachter for excellent comments and suggestions and the Child Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) for generous financial support. All errors are my own.

Brasil

Brasil

The Economic Consequences of the Agricultural Expansion in Matopiba* * I thank Laisa Rachter for excellent comments and suggestions and the Child Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) for generous financial support. All errors are my own.

The Economic Consequences of the Agricultural Expansion in Matopiba^* * I thank Laisa Rachter for excellent comments and suggestions and the Child Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) for generous financial support. All errors are my own.