Dropout predictors at gyms: a retrospective study

This study aimed to verify the risk factors associated with gym regulars’ dropout over 12 months. This is an observational, retrospective, cohort study. The sample consisted of two gyms (Gym 1: n=2027, age=39.1 ±13.1 years; Gym 2: n=1775, age=36.8 ±11.6 years). Each participant was followed up for 12 months, or until dropout, by controlling the biometric entry system using a turnstile. The adherence rate was of 11% at Gym 1 and 19% at Gym 2. At both gyms, training frequency ≤3x/month and 4-6x/month was associated with dropout. At gym 1, being a female, aged ≥43 years, and enrollment between October and December were dropout predictors. At Gym 2, dropout was associated with contract length ≤31 days and 32-186 days and enrollment between April and December.

Keywords:
Adherence; Exercise; Retention; Fitness center

	Dropout, n (%)	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4		Model 5
	Yes	PR (95% CI)	P-value	PR (95% CI)	P-value	PR (95% CI)	P-value	PR (95% CI)	P-value	PR (95% CI)	P-value
Gender		n = 2015		n = 1961		n = 1961		n = 2015		n = 2015
Male	635 (86.6)	Ref.		Ref.		Ref.		Ref.		Ref.
Female	1151 (89.8)	1.04 (1.00, 1.07)	0.039	1.04 (1.00, 1.07)	0.031	1.04 (1.00, 1.07)	0.037	1.03 (1.00, 1.06)	0.061	1.03 (1.00, 1.07)	0.054
Age		n = 1961
≤32 years	590 (86.9)	Ref.		Ref.		Ref.
33-42 year	559 (87.2)	1.00 (0.96, 1.05)	0.865	1.00 (0.96, 1.04)	0.975	1.00 (0.96, 1.05)	0.885
≥43 years	586 (91.4)	1.05 (1.01, 1.09)	0.008	1.04 (1.01, 1.08)	0.023	1.05 (1.01, 1.09)	0.009
Month of Enrollment		n = 2027
January-March	575 (88.2)	Ref.		Ref.
April-June	319 (86.7)	0.98 (0.94, 1.03)	0.490	0.98 (0.93, 1.03)	0.408
July-September	279 (82.8)	0.94 (0.89, 0.99)	0.028	0.94 (0.89, 0.99)	0.029
October-December	624 (93.1)	1.06 (1.02, 1.09)	0.002	1.06 (1.02, 1.09)	0.003
Attendance		n = 2027
≥ 7x/month	340 (67.3)	Ref.						Ref.
4-6x/month	693 (91.8)	1.36 (1.28, 1.45)	< 0.001					1.36 (1.28, 1.45)	< 0.001
≤ 3x/month	764 (99.6)	1.48 (1.39, 1.57)	< 0.001					1.48 (1.39, 1.57)	< 0.001
Contract Length		n = 1933
≥187 days	1474 (88.5)	Ref.
32-186 day	98 (89.1)	1.01 (0.94, 1.08)	0.854
≤ 31 days	140 (88.6)	1.00 (0.94, 1.06)	0.976
Year of Enrollment		n = 2027
2013-2014	826 (92.6)	Ref.								Ref.
2015-2016	763 (83.7)	0.90 (0.87, 0.93)	< 0.001							0.90 (0.87, 0.93)	< 0.001
2017-2018	208 (93.3)	1.01 (0.97, 1.05)	0.722							1.00 (0.97, 1.05)	0.815

	Dropout, n (%)	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	Yes	PR (95% CI)	P-value	PR (95% CI)	P-value	PR (95% CI)	P-value	PR (95% CI)	P-value
Gender		n = 1775		n = 1545		n = 1545		n = 1436
Male	598 (81)	Ref.
Female	835 (80.5)	0.99 (0.95, 1.04)	0.788
Age (n = 1545)		n = 1545
≤31 years	435 (79.5)	Ref.		Ref.		Ref.
32-39 year	411 (83)	1.04 (0.98, 1.11)	0.147	1.02 (0.97, 1.08)	0.438	1.04 (0.99, 1.11)	0.141	1.04 (0.98, 1.11)	0.237
≥40 years	390 (77.5)	0.97 (0.92, 1.04)	0.433	0.94 (0.89, 1.00)	0.038	0.98 (0.92, 1.04)	0.533	0.98 (0.92, 1.05)	0.616
Month of Enrollment		n = 1775
January-March	765 (76)	Ref.				Ref.
April-June	237 (90.5)	1.19 (1.13, 1.25)	< 0.001			1.17 (1.10, 1.24)	< 0.001
July-September	247 (84.9)	1.12 (1.05, 1.19)	< 0.001			1.10 (1.03, 1.17)	0.005
October-December	184 (85.6)	1.13 (1.06, 1.20)	< 0.001			1.11 (1.04, 1.20)	0.004
Attendance		n = 1775
≥7x/month	256 (51.3)	Ref.		Ref.
4-6x/month	468 (83.9)	1.63 (1.49, 1.79)	< 0.001	1.61 (1.46, 1.77)	< 0.001
≤3x/month	709 (98.7)	1.92 (1.77, 2.10)	< 0.001	1.90 (1.74, 2.07)	< 0.001
Contract Length		n = 1619
≥187 days	878 (75.5)	Ref.						Ref.
32-186 day	114 (85.7)	1.14 (1.05, 1.23)	0.001					1.13 (1.04, 1.22)	0.004
≤31 days	285 (88.2)	1.17 (1.11, 1.23)	< 0.001					1.17 (1.11, 1.24)	< 0.001
Year of Enrollment		n = 2027
2018	1280 (79.6)	Ref.						Ref.
2019	153 (91.6)	1.15 (1.09, 1.21)	< 0.001					1.15 (1.08, 1.23)	< 0.001

Colégio Brasileiro de Ciências do Esporte Universidade de Brasilia - Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, Faculdade de Educação Física, Asa Norte - CEP 70910-970 - Brasilia, DF - Brasil, Telefone: +55 (61) 3107-2542 - Brasília - DF - Brazil
E-mail: rbceonline@gmail.com

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[1] *Corresponding author: Hassan Mohamed Elsangedy E-mail: hassan.elsangedy@gmail.com