This research aimed to compare prognoses of the diameter distribution of a seasonal secondary semidecidual forest using the movement ratio, Wahlenberg and the transition methods. The data used was obtained during a 10-year survey of sustainable production in a secondary forest implanted in 1986 by the Vale do Rio Doce Company in Vermelho and Serra Azul de Minas, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Only the data regarding an area without intervention was used and the trees were grouped by class of 5 cm diameter. Growth ratio analyses were carried out from 1986 to 1996 every two years. The diameter structure prognoses for 1994 and 1996 were made by using the movement ratio, Wahlenberg and Matrix transition methods by comparing with the actual structure. To test the consistency of the prognosis obtained by each method, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (P = 0.05) was used. For the mean number of trees, the prognoses obtained by the three methods were similar to the actual structure, in 1994 and 1996. However, for diameter distribution, the methods were not efficient when compared with the actual structure. It was concluded that the movement ratio, Wahlenberg and matrix transition methods were efficient in prognosing the mean number of trees/ha; the methods movement ratio, however they were not efficient in prognosing diameter distribution.
Transition matrix; Wahlenberg's method; movement ratio method
