The objective of this study was to carry out the financial analysis and the risk of investment simulation in projects for reforestation with eucalyptus aiming to produce charcoal and wood, with or without IEF/MG forest fomentation. A financial analysis was performed through the forestry project evaluation methods, and the risk analysis was carried out through the Monte Carlo simulation technique by @RISK software. Among the projects tested, those that aimed for the production of charcoal with IEF/MG forest fomentation got the best financial results. It was verified that the costs of forest crop, transport, and charcoal-burning together are responsible for the largest portion of the total cost. The risk analysis simulation showed that the variables which affected Net Present Value (NPV) for the projects whose production is charcoal, according to the ranking of importance (R), were: products price, forest productivity, discount rate, harvesting cost and cost of implantation. In terms of the production of wood, it was observed that the order of importance when discussing the cost of harvesting and implantation, the latter was the most negatively influential of the VPL on the project without IEF forest fomentation.
Economic analysis; Fomentation program; IEF/MG
