Impacts of the Bolsa Família Program on the labor market of Brazilian municipalities

Correa Junior, Carlos Barbosa; Trevisan, Leonardo Nelmi; Mello, Cristina Helena Pinto de

doi:10.1590/0034-761220180026x

Carlos Barbosa Correa Junior

Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo / Programa de Estudos de Pós-Graduação em Administração, São Paulo / SP - Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3614-2153

Leonardo Nelmi Trevisan

Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo / Programa de Estudos de Pós-Graduação em Administração, São Paulo / SP - Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0914-3679

Cristina Helena Pinto de Mello

Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing / Programa de Mestrado em Comportamento do consumidor, São Paulo / SP - Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2002-0645

Carlos Barbosa Correa Junior PhD in Administration by the Post-Graduate Studies Program in Administration at Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo (PUC-SP). E-mail: carlosbcj5454@gmail.com

Leonardo Nelmi Trevisan PhD in Political Science by the Post-Graduate Studies Program in Administration at Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo (PUC-SP). E-mail: lntrevisan@pucsp.br

Cristina Helena Pinto de Mello PhD in Economics by the Master Program in Consumer Behavior at Superior School of Advertising and Marketing (ESPM). E-mail: chmellop@gmail.com

Year	PBF benefit, in R$ millions	Amount of families benefited by BFP, on a thousand families	GDP, in R$ billion	Wages and other remuneration, in R$ billion	Salaried employed people, in thousand people	Local units, in thousands
2004	3,792	6,572	1,941	398	31,138	5,929
2005	5,692	8,700	2,147	453	33,092	6,248
2006	7,525	10,966	2,369	547	34,998	4,764
2007	8,965	11,043	2,691	616	37,641	4,904
2008	10,607	10,558	3,187	716	39,456	5,120
2009	12,455	12,371	3,239	800	41,348	5,393
2010	14,373	12,778	3,990	929	44,141	5,704
2011	17,358	12,851	4,146	1,065	46,399	5,723
2012	21,157	13,902	4,390	1,211	47,510	5,814
2013	24,890	14,086	5,316	1,320	47,665	5,846

Year	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
2004	685,427.52	274,848.50	1,985,023.77	168.00	83,629,166.00
2005	1,023,681.12	443,798.50	2,784,547.98	325.00	112,404,678.00
2006	1,352,383.42	594,705.00	3,574,349.73	720.00	129,006,666.00
2007	1,611,340.69	706,125.00	4,392,482.73	1,280.00	151,772,106.00
2008	1,906,272.50	823,372.00	5,323,984.63	1,134.00	172,598,270.00
2009	2,238,444.02	949,381.50	6,453,458.76	752.00	178,942,695.00
2010	2,582,695.93	1,103,867.00	7,170,577.59	660.00	200,137,472.00
2011	3,119,206.63	1,324,975.00	9,038,200.23	708.00	243,203,214.00
2012	3,801,751.07	1,593,996.00	10,874,276.25	4,408.00	317,886,792.00
2013	4,469,403.32	1,878,116.00	12,995,376.33	620.00	430,243,182.00

Year	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
2004	1,188	518	3,666	2	165,991
2005	1,565	692	4,253	1	167,038
2006	1,971	887	5,689	3	224,817
2007	1,985	879	5,742	2	204,127
2008	1,898	834	5,649	1	201,664
2009	2,223	966	6,607	2	177,882
2010	2,296	1,006	6,926	1	196,699
2011	2,309	1,007	7,009	1	195,532
2012	2,498	1,073	7,704	4	228,078
2013	2,529	1,045	8,584	3	347,191

Year	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
2004	349,190.35	48,198.13	3,723,248.80	3,183.93	225,170,381.88
2005	385,916.48	50,904.53	4,237,693.56	3,503.53	261,455,917.21
2006	425,859.73	56,963.78	4,610,458.18	3,746.16	282,892,454.76
2007	483,619.24	64,913.05	5,240,545.80	4,512.55	323,154,665.88
2008	572,622.07	74,416.66	6,173,015.78	6,492.19	357,116,681.33
2009	582,103.15	80,588.13	6,346,376.79	5,770.28	389,317,166.69
2010	719,171.08	93,296.52	8,679,265.76	7,237.63	443,600,101.65
2011	747,384.80	103,767.21	7,806,938.17	9,741.52	477,005,597.21
2012	791,496.87	109,785.52	8,181,913.32	8,342.57	499,375,400.66
2013	954,810.11	130,191.00	9,504,351.70	9,678.00	570,706,192.00

Year	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
2004	71,641.06	3,342.26	1,101,459.89	-	67,555,828.38
2005	81,569.35	4,110.83	1,232,143.08	-	75,267,796.59
2006	98,407.89	5,216.56	1,471,465.41	12.59	89,181,133.84
2007	110,887.61	6,228.25	1,636,708.62	2.28	99,171,050.06
2008	128,854.13	7,348.09	1,893,471.47	16.29	114,669,100.24
2009	143,927.64	8,783.80	2,077,020.31	-	124,377,680.04
2010	167,492.48	10,260.29	2,376,854.55	47.70	142,150,179.34
2011	191,989.01	12,049.54	2,702,458.72	96.66	161,769,713.10
2012	218,414.95	13,972.78	3,054,433.77	8.03	182,963,919.90
2013	238,091.26	16,038.26	3,350,990.32	29.50	201,301,606.08

Year	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
2004	5,608	582	61,241	-	3,543,743
2005	5,956	630	64,552	-	3,731,795
2006	6,301	683	68,326	2	3,975,545
2007	6,776	732	73,570	4	4,277,939
2008	7,103	751	77,457	1	4,528,310
2009	7,442	830	79,913	-	4,654,681
2010	7,961	875	84,378	3	4,906,877
2011	8,368	921	88,157	6	5,098,791
2012	8,568	919	90,726	1	5,239,502
2013	8,598	970	89,971	3	5,281,006

Year	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
2004	1,068	191	9,375	5	571,309
2005	1,125	203	9,845	4	600,936
2006	857	154	7,689	2	472,143
2007	883	160	7,992	6	491,553
2008	922	166	8,416	4	520,533
2009	971	180	8,798	7	544,983
2010	1,029	192	9,320	7	577,190
2011	1,032	187	9,423	4	584,225
2012	1,049	187	9,679	6	599,434
2013	1,054	195	9,718	7	618,713

Year	Implicit GDP deflator		INPC
Year	Percentage	Accumulated divider	Percentage	Accumulated divider
2004		1.000		1.000
2005	0.0749	1.075	0.051	1.051
2006	0.0669	1.147	0.028	1.080
2007	0.0640	1.220	0.052	1.136
2008	0.0887	1.328	0.065	1.209
2009	0.0735	1.426	0.041	1.259
2010	0.0857	1.548	0.065	1.341
2011	0.0831	1.677	0.061	1.422
2012	0.0587	1.775	0.062	1.510
2013	0.0651	1.891	0.056	1.594

	Model 1	Model 2
Ln Δ local units	0.4259***	0.3929***
Ln Δ GDP of the municipality	0.2568***	0.2947***
Ln Δ PBF distributed value	0.22149***
Ln Δ PBF number of beneficiaries		0.2033***
Constant	-3.1462***	-1.9495***
R²	0.47	0.48

	Model 1	Model 2
Ln Δ salaried population	0.6614***	0.6332***
Ln Δ GDP of the municipality	0.2009***	0.2279***
Ln Δ PBF distributed value	0.1098***
Ln Δ PBF number of beneficiaries		0.1201***
Constant	6.6526***	7.1032***
R2	0.69	0.70

Independent Variables	Model 1	Model 2
Local units	4.91***	4.49***
GDP of the municipality	0.000000423	0.000000371
PBF beneficiaries	2.97***
PBF distributed value		0.00272***
Constant	-3,906.25	-2,027.73**

	EF	ER	EF-ER	SE
Local units	4.917	6.715	-1.798	0.0319
PBF beneficiaries	2.972	2.663	0.309	0.0113
GDP of the municipality	0.000000423	0.000000566	-0.000000143
Chi²	4548.06
Prob>Chi²	0

	EF	ER	EF-ER	SE
Local units	4.494	6.977	-2.483	0.0331
PBF distributed value	0.0027	0.0026	0.0001	0.00000464
GDP of the municipality	0.000000371	0.000000501	-0.00000013
Chi²	6629.41
Prob>Chi²	0

Independent variables	Model 1	Model 2
Salaried population	26,076.13***	26,028.78***
GDP of the municipality	0.0115**	0.0114***
PBF beneficiaries	16,448.24^
PBF distributed value		12.5
Constant	-1,040,000,000***	-1,046,000,000***

	EF	ER	EF-ER	SE
Salaried population	26028.78	20884.44	-1.798	0.0319
PBF distributed value	0.0114	0.01274	0.309	0.0113
GDP of the municipality	12.5502	16.2723	-0.000000143
Chi²	17326.12
Prob>Chi²	0

	EF	ER	EF-ER	SE
Salaried population	26028.78	20884.44	-1.798	0.0319
PBF distributed value	0.0114	0.01274	0.309	0.0113
GDP of the municipality	12.5502	16.2723	-0.000000143
Chi²	17326.12
Prob>Chi²	0

	Model 1	Model 2
Salaried population
L1	0.21***	0.17***
Local units	7.85***	7.79***
L1	0.27	-0.49
L2	0.24	-0.049
GDP of the municipality	-0.000000141	-0.000000119
L1	-0.00000000959	0.0000000217
L2	0.000000145*	0.000000166*
PBF beneficiaries	0.29
L1	0.19
L2	0.56***
PBF distributed value		0.0003***
L1		0.0002
L2		0.0006*

	Model 1	Model 2
Prob > z	0.024	0.0203

	Model 1	Model 2
Total wages	-	-
L1	0.57***	0.55***
Local units	116,956.4***	116,757.3***
L1	29,356.79***	29,450.9***
L2	2,807.45***	-4,693.75
GDP of the municipality		0.0012
L1	0.0016	0.0008
L2	0.004**	0.0048**
PBF beneficiaries	7,342.5***
L1	7,137.21**
L2	11,790.01***
PBF distributed value		14.43***
L1		-1.19
L2		-4.78

	Model 1	Model 2
Prob > z	0.0084	0.0053

I_{n} Δ s a l a r i e d p o p = β_{0} + β_{1} I_{n} Δ l o c a l u n i t s + β_{2} I_{n} Δ G D P + β_{3} I_{n} Δ P B F d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e + u_{i}

I_{n} Δ s a l a r i e d p o p = β_{0} + β_{1} I_{n} Δ l o c a l u n i t s + β_{2} I_{n} Δ G D P + β_{3} I_{n} Δ P B F b e n e f i c i a r i e s + u_{i}

I_{n} Δ t o t a l w a g e s = β_{0} + β_{1} I_{n} Δ s a l a r i e d p o p + β_{2} I_{n} Δ G D P + β_{3} I_{n} Δ P B F d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e + u_{i}

I_{n} Δ t o t a l w a g e s = β_{0} + β_{1} I_{n} Δ s a l a r i e d p o p + β_{2} I_{n} Δ G D P + β_{3} I_{n} Δ P B F b e n e f i c i a r i e s + u_{i}

s a l a r i e d p o p = β_{0} + β_{1} {s a l a r i e d p o p}_{t - 1} + β_{2} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t} + β_{3} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 1} + β_{4} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 2} + β_{5} {G D P}_{t} + β_{6} {G D P}_{t - 1} + β_{7} {G D P}_{t - 2} + β_{8} {b e n e f i c i a r i e s}_{t} + β_{9} {b e n e f i c i a r i e s}_{t - 1} + β_{10} {b e n e f i c i a r i e s}_{t - 2} + u_{i}

s a l a r i e d p o p = β_{0} + β_{1} {s a l a r i e d p o p}_{t - 1} + β_{2} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t} + β_{3} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 1} + β_{4} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 2} + β_{5} {G D P}_{t} + β_{6} {G D P}_{t - 1} + β_{7} {G D P}_{t - 2} + β_{8} {d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e}_{t} + β_{9} {d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e}_{t - 1} + β_{10} {d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e}_{t - 2} + u_{i}

t o t a l s a l a r i e d = β_{0} + β_{1} {t o t a l s a l a r i e d}_{t - 1} + β_{2} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t} + β_{3} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 1} + β_{4} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 2} + β_{5} {G D P}_{t} + β_{6} {G D P}_{t - 1} + β_{7} {G D P}_{t - 2} + β_{8} {b e n e f i c i a r i e s}_{t} + β_{9} {b e n e f i c i a r i e s}_{t - 1} + β_{10} {b e n e f i c i a r i e s}_{t - 2} + u_{i}

t o t a l s a l a r i e d = β_{0} + β_{1} {t o t a l s a l a r i e d}_{t - 1} + β_{2} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t} + β_{3} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 1} + β_{4} {l o c a l u n i t s}_{t - 2} + β_{5} {G D P}_{t} + β_{6} {G D P}_{t - 1} + β_{7} {G D P}_{t - 2} + β_{8} {d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e}_{t} + β_{9} {d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e}_{t - 1} + β_{10} {d i s t r i b u t e d v a l u e}_{t - 2} + u_{i}

[1] Carlos Barbosa Correa Junior PhD in Administration by the Post-Graduate Studies Program in Administration at Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo (PUC-SP). E-mail: carlosbcj5454@gmail.com

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Impacts of the Bolsa Família Program on the labor market of Brazilian municipalities

Abstract