This article presents a mathematical model for determining the future valueof local HDI of municipalities in the state of Paraná, Brazil, based on current accounting data and other variables. The theoretical framework considers externalities and public assets, analyzing the reasons why public investments are necessary, as well as how the HDI is calculated. This explanatory research uses regression analysis with multiple regressions of 87 independent variables, 10 of them non-accounting and 77 accounting variables. The tests showed that local HDI has relation with past local HDI variables, distance to the state capital, altitude, level of rural population, tax revenue, expenses with civil service personnel, public health and sanitation expenditure, investments and expenses with commerce and industry.
HDI; public accounting; public management
