Valor Justo de Ativos Biológicos: Uma Proposta Metodológica Interdisciplinar

Cavalheiro, Rafael Todescato; Gimenes, Régio Marcio Toesca; Binotto, Erlaine; Fietz, Carlos Ricardo

doi:10.1590/1982-7849rac2019180254

Rafael Todescato Cavalheiro

Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados, Faculdade de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Economia, Dourados, MS, Brasil

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3468-5357

Régio Marcio Toesca Gimenes

Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados, Faculdade de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Economia, Dourados, MS, Brasil

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7834-9892

Erlaine Binotto

Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados, Faculdade de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Economia, Dourados, MS, Brasil

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0349-4566

Carlos Ricardo Fietz

Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, Embrapa Agropecuária Oeste, Dourados, MS, Brasil

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6153-7210

Editor-in-chief: Prof. Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva.

Authors

Rafael Todescato Cavalheiro Rodovia Dourados-Itahum, Km 12, Caixa Postal 364, 79804-970, Dourados, MS, Brasil E-mail address: rafaeltodescato@hotmail.com

Régio Marcio Toesca Gimenes Rodovia Dourados-Itahum, Km 12, Caixa Postal 364, 79804-970, Dourados, MS, Brasil E-mail address: regiomtoesca@gmail.com , regiogimenes@ufgd.edu.br

Erlaine Binotto Rodovia Dourados-Itahum, Km 12, Caixa Postal 364, 79804-970, Dourados, MS, Brasil E-mail address: e-binotto@uol.com.br , erlainebinotto@ufgd.edu.br

Carlos Ricardo Fietz Rodovia BR 163, Km 253,6, Caixa Postal 449, Zona Rural, 79804-970, Dourados, MS, Brasil E-mail address: carlos.fietz@embrapa.br

Contributions

1st author: Research design, theoretical and methodological development, application, writing and final revision.

2nd author: Research design, theoretical and methodological development, application, writing and final revision.

3rd author: Research design, theoretical and methodological development, application, writing and final revision.

4th author: Research design, theoretical and methodological development, application, writing and final revision.

Conflict of Interest

The authors have stated that there is no conflict of interest.

Element	Variables	Description	Discipline
Operational Cash Flow	$(\frac{\sum_{n}^{1} P_{n}}{n})$	Average price projected by regression, from n available future prices	Economics
	$(\frac{\sum_{n s c e n a r i o s}^{1} [1 - K_{y} (1 - \frac{E T_{r}}{E T_{m}})] Y_{m}}{n s c e n a r i o s})$	Quantity projected from n designed agrometeorological scenarios	Agronomy
	TB	Taxes on Projected Revenue	Accounting
	CPP	Estimated Production Costs for the Period
	DO	Estimated Operating Expenses
	DE _x	Estimated Depreciation
	IR	Taxes on Profit
Discount rate	{ Rf _g + R _c + βC _LG [ β _GG ( R _{MG -} Rf _g )](1 - R ² )}	Cost of Equity	Economics
	k _d (1 - T )	Cost of Debit
	P	Debt
	PL	Equity
	$[k_{e} (\frac{P L}{(P + P L)})] + [(k_{i} (1 - I R)) (\frac{P}{(P + P L)})]$	Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Variables	Accounting choices for the measurement and techniques
$(\frac{\sum_{n}^{1} P_{n}}{n})$	A linear regression was performed considering the price of the ton of sugarcane (TC) published by Secretaria de Estado de Meio Ambiente e Desenvolvimento Econômico do Mato Grosso do Sul (SEMADE, n.d.) with the price of hydrated ethanol published by CEPEA/ESALQ-USP (n.d.) for the period from 2003 to 2016, resulting in the model y = 46.462x – 0.797, which presented a coefficient of determination R ² of 0.9590. For price projection, the prices of hydrated alcohol (n = 10) traded on BM&Fbovespa were used up to 31/01/2019. Therefore, the sale price of TC used in this study is R $ 71.08, higher than the historical average of R $ 65.63, already deflated by the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M), considering the period of 2003 to 2016.
$(\frac{\sum_{n s c e n a r i o s}^{1} [1 - K_{y} (1 - \frac{E T_{r}}{E T_{m}})] Y_{m}}{n s c e n a r i o s})$	The maximum and actual evapotranspiration were obtained through the EMBRAPA Climate Guide for the period from 2001 to 2015. The maximum productivity was 127.86 TC/ha identified by M. de A. Silva, Arantes, Rhein, Gava e Kolln (2014), as well as the estimated at 1,13 for the sugarcane crop in the Dourados microregion. After identifying the variables, three scenarios were designed (favorable, reasonable and unfavorable) considering the water deficit. Based on the three scenarios, productivity (87.46 TC/ha, 72.95 TC/ha and 62.69 TC/ha respectively) was estimated, with the average of the three scenarios being the value of the quantity to be used in the projection of cash flows. It was also considered the breakdown of productivity per cut, taking as reference the study of G. G. de S. Pereira, Albrecht, Fausto e Migliavacca (2015) that consider for the second cut a productivity decrease of 15% and in other cuts 12% being the productivity 1 ^st cut 74.37 TC/ha, 2 ^nd cut 63.21 TC/ha, 3 ^rd cut 55.63 TC/ha, 4 ^th cut 48.95 TC/ha and 5 ^th cut 43.08 TC/ha, resulting in an estimate of 407,074 tons of sugarcane.
TB	Funrural of 2.85% incident on estimated annual revenue (R $ 28,934,819.92), which totaled R $ 824,642.37.
CPP	The projected cost was provided by the entity based on the previous harvest history, which totals R $ 15,268,140.90.
DO	The projected Operating Expenses were provided by the entity based on historical harvest, which totals R $ 1,068,959.70.
DE _x	Projected depreciation was provided by the entity and amounts to R $ 3,936,446.64.
IR	The 34% rate on Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (R $ 7,836,630.31).
{ Rf _g + R _c + βC _LG [ β _GG ( R _{MG -} Rf _g )](1 - R ² )}	For the the rate of 2.95% per year was used for the yield of the 30-year Tbonds quoted on 31/01/2018. Regarding Country Risk ( R _C ), the EMBI + Brazil rate was used for 229 points, or 2.29% for the 31/01/2018. The country’s beta ( βC _LG ) was obtained by regression between the Ibovespa variation and the MSCI variation ACWI from January 2013 to January 2018, which resulted in an angular coefficient (slope) of 1.1803. As unleveraged beta of comparable companies in the global market ( β _GG ), we used the unlevered beta of the Farming/Agriculture sector calculated at 0.56 in January 2018 by Damodaran (2018) Damodaran , A. ( 2018 ). Betas by sector (US) . Retrieved February 10, 2018 , from http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New... . As a proxy for the global market return ( R _MG ), we used the return annual average of the period 2013 to 2017 of the MSCI ACWI, whose value is 11.29% per year. The coefficient of determination ( R ² ) was calculated from the regression between the volatility of the Ibovespa versus the variation of the EMBI + Brazil from January 2013 to January 2018. The value calculated for the coefficient of determination from the proposed regression is 0.279.
k _d (1 - T )	The company uses debit subsidized by government incentive agribusiness programs and presents a weighted debit interest rate according to sources of 10.15%.
P	The company has an onerous debt of R $ 195,950,000.00, equivalent to 48.33% of the capital structure.
PL	The company has an equity of R $ 209,530,000.00, equivalent to 51.67% of the capital structure.

V A T_{j} = \sum_{j = 1}^{\infty} \frac{\{[((\frac{\sum_{n}^{1} P_{n}}{n}) (\frac{\sum_{n c e n a r i o s}^{1} [1 - K_{y} (1 - \frac{E T_{r}}{E T_{m}})] Y m}{n c e n a r i o s})) - T B - C P P - D O - D E_{x}] - I R\} + D E_{x}}{{(1 + [(\{R f_{g} + R_{c} + β C_{L G} [β_{G G} (R_{M G} - R f_{g})] (1 - R^{2})\} \frac{E}{(D + E)}) + (k_{d} (1 - T) \frac{D}{(D + E)})])}^{j}}

V A T_{j} = \sum_{j = 1}^{\infty} \frac{\{[((\frac{\sum_{n}^{1} P_{n}}{n}) (\frac{\sum_{n c e n a r i o s}^{1} [1 - K_{y} (1 - \frac{E T_{r}}{E T_{m}})] Y m}{n c e n a r i o s})) - T B - C P P - D O - D E_{x}] - I R\} + D E_{x}}{{(1 + [(\{R f_{g} + R_{c} + β C_{L G} [β_{G G} (R_{M G} - R f_{g})] (1 - R^{2})\} \frac{E}{(D + E)}) + (k_{d} (1 - T) \frac{D}{(D + E)})])}^{j}} \{\{[71, 08 (\frac{\{[1 - 1, 13 (1 - \frac{1200, 30}{1666, 25})] 127, 86\} + \{[1 - 1, 13 (1 - \frac{1153, 83}{1861, 17})] 127, 86\} + \{[1 - 1, 13 (1 - \frac{1040, 38}{1895, 22})] 127, 86\}}{3})]\}\} V A T_{j} = \sum_{j = 1}^{\infty} \frac{- 824.642, 37 - 15.268.140, 90 - 1.068.959, 70 - 3.936.446, 64 - 2.664.454, 31 + 3.936.446, 64}{{(1 + [(\{2, 95 % + 2, 29 % + 1, 1803 [0, 56 (11, 29 % - 2, 95 %)] (1 - 0, 279)\} 0, 5167) + (10, 15 % (1 - 0, 34) 0, 4833)])}^{1}} V T_{j} = \sum_{j = 1}^{\infty} \frac{[(28.934.819, 92 - 824.642, 37 - 15.268.140, 90 - 1.068.959, 70 - 3.936.446, 64) - 2.664.454, 31] + 3.936.446, 64}{{(1 + [(0, 0921 \times 0, 5167) + (0, 0670 \times 0, 4833)])}^{1}} V T_{j} = \sum_{j = 1}^{\infty} \frac{(7.836.630, 31 - 2.664.454, 31) + 3.936.446, 64}{{(1 + 0.08)}^{1}} V A T_{j} = \sum_{j = 1}^{\infty} \frac{9.108.662, 65}{{(1 + 0.08)}^{1}} V A T_{j} = R $ 8.433.909, 86

[1] Editor-in-chief: Prof. Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva.

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Valor Justo de Ativos Biológicos: Uma Proposta Metodológica Interdisciplinar

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