The introduction of the flex-fuel car to the Brazilian market in 2003 considerably changed the consumer decision making process. Previously, it was necessary to choose the automobile type, and then the market moved to only gasoline or only sugarcane ethanol; currently, it is possible to choose a car that can run with a combination of these fuels. This flexibility generates economic advantages for the owner, but what are the financial benefits of flex-fuel technology? Geographically, where must the owner be located to have this flexibility? The present paper empirically applies the real options theory to an analysis of the options embedded in the flex-fuel car for five Brazilian geographic regions. The regional price differences and the consumer preferences within these regions were analyzed. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered to be stochastic, thus following mean reverting stochastic processes. Price forecasts and option values were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option to choose the most inexpensive fuel adds considerable value for the flex-fuel car owner in all regions and car models considered, with the southern region seeing the greatest benefit in the flex option.
Real option valuation; Commodity pricing models; Flex-fuel car; Stochastic simulation
