Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models

Abstract

Paper aims

This paper aims to discuss how the energy load forecasts used by the System Operator and the main agents of the sector are made, and for what purposes, besides discuss the forecast deviations of the ONS’s and EPE’s models and their consequences and costs to the agents involved.

Originality

Fill a gap in the Brazilian literature when dealing with the Electric Power Load formally, and the consequences of forecast deviation used by the operator of system.

Research method

Simulations are carried out to estimate the cost of deviation, in order to assess the impact of the load forecast on the system.

Main findings

As a result, there is an urgent need to clarify forecasting methods and strategies; to avoid, by the sector agents, justifications that optimistic forecasts are necessary as security measures.

Implications for theory and practice

There are evidence that small improvements in forecasting models imply significant cost reductions.

Keywords
Electric power load; Forecast; Operations planning; Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN); Forecast deviation